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Andrew D. Magee
,
Anthony S. Kiem
, and
Andrew M. Lorrey

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) produce extreme winds, large waves, storm surges, intense rainfall, and flooding and account for almost 75% of natural disasters across the southwest Pacific (SWP) region. The island nations and territories across the SWP rely on seasonal TC outlooks for insights into possible risks for the coming TC season. Launched in July 2020, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) provides deterministic (frequency) and probabilistic (likelihood) TC outlooks for 12 subregional and island-scale locations up to 4 months (July) before the start of the SWP TC season (November–April). Following TCO-SP’s first season of operation, this study (i) outlines the process of generating and communicating TCO-SP outlooks, (ii) provides a postseason validation of TCO-SP performance on the 2020/21 SWP TC season, and (iii) reports on the results of a questionnaire used to determine end-user needs and user-perceived usefulness of TCO-SP. Postseason validation indicates that TCO-SP successfully predicted a near-normal SWP TC season. Island- and regional-scale guidance also performed well, with an average skill score of 54% across all regions. Analysis of responses to a TCO-SP questionnaire revealed a diverse and global user base that indicate the core features of TCO-SP (island-scale/regional-scale outlooks, regular monthly updates, and an outlook lead time up to 4 months before the start of the TC season) are particularly useful. TCO-SP will continue to innovate to deliver reliable and trusted TC outlooks with a goal to reduce disaster risk and increase resilience across the SWP region.

Open access
Howard J. Diamond
,
Carl J. Schreck III
,
Adam Allgood
,
Emily J. Becker
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Michael S. Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Zeng-Zhen Hu
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Arun Kumar
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
Michelle L’Heureux
,
I.-I. Lin
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Kimberly M. Wood
, and
John-Mark Woolley
Free access
Stephen Baxter
,
Gerald D Bell
,
Eric S Blake
,
Francis G Bringas
,
Suzana J Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S Coelho
,
Ricardo Domingues
,
Stanley B Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Michael S Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Philip J Klotzbach
,
John A Knaff
,
Michelle L'Heureux
,
Chris W Landsea
,
I.-I Lin
,
Andrew M Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Andrew D Magee
,
Richard J Pasch
,
Petra R Pearce
,
Alexandre B Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Blair C Trewin
,
Ryan E Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
H Wang
,
Kimberly M Wood
, and
John-Mark Woolley
Free access
Howard J. Diamond
,
Carl J. Schreck III
,
Emily J. Becker
,
Gerald D. Bell
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Stephanie Bond
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Ricardo Domingues
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Michael S. Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Michelle L'Heureux
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
I.-I. Lin
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Kyle MacRitchie
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Ben Noll
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Michael K. Tippet
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Kimberly M. Wood
,
John-Mark Woolley
, and
Steven H. Young
Free access
Stefan Brönnimann
,
Rob Allan
,
Linden Ashcroft
,
Saba Baer
,
Mariano Barriendos
,
Rudolf Brázdil
,
Yuri Brugnara
,
Manola Brunet
,
Michele Brunetti
,
Barbara Chimani
,
Richard Cornes
,
Fernando Domínguez-Castro
,
Janusz Filipiak
,
Dimitra Founda
,
Ricardo García Herrera
,
Joelle Gergis
,
Stefan Grab
,
Lisa Hannak
,
Heli Huhtamaa
,
Kim S. Jacobsen
,
Phil Jones
,
Sylvie Jourdain
,
Andrea Kiss
,
Kuanhui Elaine Lin
,
Andrew Lorrey
,
Elin Lundstad
,
Jürg Luterbacher
,
Franz Mauelshagen
,
Maurizio Maugeri
,
Nicolas Maughan
,
Anders Moberg
,
Raphael Neukom
,
Sharon Nicholson
,
Simon Noone
,
Øyvind Nordli
,
Kristín Björg Ólafsdóttir
,
Petra R. Pearce
,
Lucas Pfister
,
Kathleen Pribyl
,
Rajmund Przybylak
,
Christa Pudmenzky
,
Dubravka Rasol
,
Delia Reichenbach
,
Ladislava Řezníčková
,
Fernando S. Rodrigo
,
Christian Rohr
,
Oleg Skrynyk
,
Victoria Slonosky
,
Peter Thorne
,
Maria Antónia Valente
,
José M. Vaquero
,
Nancy E. Westcott
,
Fiona Williamson
, and
Przemysław Wyszyński
Full access
Stefan Brönnimann
,
Rob Allan
,
Linden Ashcroft
,
Saba Baer
,
Mariano Barriendos
,
Rudolf Brázdil
,
Yuri Brugnara
,
Manola Brunet
,
Michele Brunetti
,
Barbara Chimani
,
Richard Cornes
,
Fernando Domínguez-Castro
,
Janusz Filipiak
,
Dimitra Founda
,
Ricardo García Herrera
,
Joelle Gergis
,
Stefan Grab
,
Lisa Hannak
,
Heli Huhtamaa
,
Kim S. Jacobsen
,
Phil Jones
,
Sylvie Jourdain
,
Andrea Kiss
,
Kuanhui Elaine Lin
,
Andrew Lorrey
,
Elin Lundstad
,
Jürg Luterbacher
,
Franz Mauelshagen
,
Maurizio Maugeri
,
Nicolas Maughan
,
Anders Moberg
,
Raphael Neukom
,
Sharon Nicholson
,
Simon Noone
,
Øyvind Nordli
,
Kristín Björg Ólafsdóttir
,
Petra R. Pearce
,
Lucas Pfister
,
Kathleen Pribyl
,
Rajmund Przybylak
,
Christa Pudmenzky
,
Dubravka Rasol
,
Delia Reichenbach
,
Ladislava Řezníčková
,
Fernando S. Rodrigo
,
Christian Rohr
,
Oleg Skrynyk
,
Victoria Slonosky
,
Peter Thorne
,
Maria Antónia Valente
,
José M. Vaquero
,
Nancy E. Westcottt
,
Fiona Williamson
, and
Przemysław Wyszyński

Abstract

Instrumental meteorological measurements from periods prior to the start of national weather services are designated “early instrumental data.” They have played an important role in climate research as they allow daily to decadal variability and changes of temperature, pressure, and precipitation, including extremes, to be addressed. Early instrumental data can also help place twenty-first century climatic changes into a historical context such as defining preindustrial climate and its variability. Until recently, the focus was on long, high-quality series, while the large number of shorter series (which together also cover long periods) received little to no attention. The shift in climate and climate impact research from mean climate characteristics toward weather variability and extremes, as well as the success of historical reanalyses that make use of short series, generates a need for locating and exploring further early instrumental measurements. However, information on early instrumental series has never been electronically compiled on a global scale. Here we attempt a worldwide compilation of metadata on early instrumental meteorological records prior to 1850 (1890 for Africa and the Arctic). Our global inventory comprises information on several thousand records, about half of which have not yet been digitized (not even as monthly means), and only approximately 20% of which have made it to global repositories. The inventory will help to prioritize data rescue efforts and can be used to analyze the potential feasibility of historical weather data products. The inventory will be maintained as a living document and is a first, critical, step toward the systematic rescue and reevaluation of these highly valuable early records. Additions to the inventory are welcome.

Open access