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Andrew R. Solow and James M. Broadus

Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation have been used routinely in the United States since 1965. Studies of the reliability of such forecasts often show a tendency towards over-forecasting (i.e., for forecast probabilities to exceed observed relative frequencies). A simple model is described that explains over-forecasting in terms of an asymmetric loss function. The model is applied to some results of a previous study.

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