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  • Author or Editor: Brian V. Smoliak x
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Brian V. Smoliak
John M. Wallace


The leading patterns of variability of the monthly mean Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea level pressure (SLP) field, as derived from empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis of a 93-yr (1920–2012) record of NOAA–CIRES 20th Century Reanalyses, are presented and discussed, with emphasis on wintertime patterns. The analysis yields nine or more highly reproducible wintertime hemispheric EOTs, the first six of which closely resemble EOF1 or EOF2 in their respective sectors of the hemisphere. Collectively, the first nine wintertime patterns account for 70% of the variance of NH SLP, 40% of the variance of NH surface air temperature (SAT), and 52% of the variance of the time series of NH-mean SAT poleward of 20°N. Wintertime EOT1 corresponds to the NH annular mode (NAM) and EOT2 corresponds to the SLP expression of the Pacific–North America pattern. The remaining wintertime EOT patterns are monopoles arranged like the links of a chain wrapped around the primary center of action of the annular mode. The NH summertime and Southern Hemisphere patterns are arranged in a similar manner. The continental NH wintertime patterns exhibit strong temperature anomalies of reversed polarity to their respective SLP monopoles. The interannual variability of wintertime EOTs 3–9 and summertime EOTs 2–9 is dominated by sampling fluctuations. Over the 93-yr record, the more prominent continental wintertime patterns exhibit weak trends toward falling SLP and rising SAT, particularly over Russia and Alaska. The interpretation of shorter-term trends is more ambiguous.

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