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- Author or Editor: Carolyn A. Reynolds x
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology x
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Abstract
Enhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) produced from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are assimilated into the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts during the simultaneous western North Pacific Ocean Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure—2008 (TCS-08) field experiments. Four-dimensional data assimilation is employed to take advantage of experimental high-resolution (space and time) AMVs produced for the field campaigns by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Two enhanced AMV datasets are considered: 1) extended periods produced at hourly intervals over a large western North Pacific domain using routinely available MTSAT imagery and 2) limited periods over a smaller storm-centered domain produced using special MTSAT rapid-scan imagery. Most of the locally impacted forecast cases involve Typhoons Sinlaku and Hagupit, although other storms are also examined. On average, the continuous assimilation of the hourly AMVs reduces the NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecast errors—in particular, for forecasts longer than 72 h. It is shown that the AMVs can improve the environmental flow analyses that may be influencing the tropical cyclone tracks. Adding rapid-scan AMV observations further reduces the NOGAPS forecast errors. In addition to their benefit in traditional data assimilation, the enhanced AMVs show promise as a potential resource for advanced objective data-targeting methods.
Abstract
Enhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) produced from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are assimilated into the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts during the simultaneous western North Pacific Ocean Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure—2008 (TCS-08) field experiments. Four-dimensional data assimilation is employed to take advantage of experimental high-resolution (space and time) AMVs produced for the field campaigns by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Two enhanced AMV datasets are considered: 1) extended periods produced at hourly intervals over a large western North Pacific domain using routinely available MTSAT imagery and 2) limited periods over a smaller storm-centered domain produced using special MTSAT rapid-scan imagery. Most of the locally impacted forecast cases involve Typhoons Sinlaku and Hagupit, although other storms are also examined. On average, the continuous assimilation of the hourly AMVs reduces the NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecast errors—in particular, for forecasts longer than 72 h. It is shown that the AMVs can improve the environmental flow analyses that may be influencing the tropical cyclone tracks. Adding rapid-scan AMV observations further reduces the NOGAPS forecast errors. In addition to their benefit in traditional data assimilation, the enhanced AMVs show promise as a potential resource for advanced objective data-targeting methods.
Abstract
Gravity wave perturbations in 15-μm nadir radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) informed scientific flight planning for the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE). AIRS observations from 2003 to 2011 identified the South Island of New Zealand during June–July as a “natural laboratory” for observing deep-propagating gravity wave dynamics. Near-real-time AIRS and CrIS gravity wave products monitored wave activity in and around New Zealand continuously within 10 regions of scientific interest, providing nowcast guidance and validation for flight planners. A novel technique used these gravity wave products to validate upstream forecasts of nonorographic gravity waves with 1–2-day lead times, providing time to plan flight intercepts as tropospheric westerlies brought forecast source regions into range. Postanalysis verifies the choice of 15 μm radiances for nowcasting, since 4.3-μm gravity wave products yielded spurious diurnal cycles, provided no altitude sensitivity, and proved relatively insensitive to deep gravity wave activity over the South Island. Comparisons of DEEPWAVE flight tracks with AIRS and CrIS gravity wave maps highlight successful repeated vectoring of the aircraft into regions of deep orographic and nonorographic gravity wave activity, and how background winds control the amplitude of waves in radiance perturbation maps. We discuss how gravity wave information in AIRS and CrIS radiances might be directly assimilated into future operational forecasting systems.
Abstract
Gravity wave perturbations in 15-μm nadir radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) informed scientific flight planning for the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE). AIRS observations from 2003 to 2011 identified the South Island of New Zealand during June–July as a “natural laboratory” for observing deep-propagating gravity wave dynamics. Near-real-time AIRS and CrIS gravity wave products monitored wave activity in and around New Zealand continuously within 10 regions of scientific interest, providing nowcast guidance and validation for flight planners. A novel technique used these gravity wave products to validate upstream forecasts of nonorographic gravity waves with 1–2-day lead times, providing time to plan flight intercepts as tropospheric westerlies brought forecast source regions into range. Postanalysis verifies the choice of 15 μm radiances for nowcasting, since 4.3-μm gravity wave products yielded spurious diurnal cycles, provided no altitude sensitivity, and proved relatively insensitive to deep gravity wave activity over the South Island. Comparisons of DEEPWAVE flight tracks with AIRS and CrIS gravity wave maps highlight successful repeated vectoring of the aircraft into regions of deep orographic and nonorographic gravity wave activity, and how background winds control the amplitude of waves in radiance perturbation maps. We discuss how gravity wave information in AIRS and CrIS radiances might be directly assimilated into future operational forecasting systems.
