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- Author or Editor: Christian Jakob x
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The parameterization schemes used to represent clouds in general circulation models have significantly evolved in their complexity over the last 10 yr. This increases the demand for a thorough evaluation of their performance. Several techniques ranging from the evaluation of the model climate to single column modeling have been proposed for that purpose. This paper aims to provide a strategy for an improved, more coherent use of these techniques. An overview of the different techniques is given using examples from the evaluation of the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Advantages and disadvantages of the individual methods are highlighted. The paper closes by proposing a strategy to join the different techniques into a coherent procedure of cloud parameterization evaluation.
The parameterization schemes used to represent clouds in general circulation models have significantly evolved in their complexity over the last 10 yr. This increases the demand for a thorough evaluation of their performance. Several techniques ranging from the evaluation of the model climate to single column modeling have been proposed for that purpose. This paper aims to provide a strategy for an improved, more coherent use of these techniques. An overview of the different techniques is given using examples from the evaluation of the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Advantages and disadvantages of the individual methods are highlighted. The paper closes by proposing a strategy to join the different techniques into a coherent procedure of cloud parameterization evaluation.
Accelerating Progress in Global Atmospheric Model Development through Improved Parameterizations
Challenges, Opportunities, and Strategies
Meeting societal needs in weather, seasonal, and decadal prediction and climate projection requires a continuous improvement of the main tools used in making the predictions—global models of the Earth system. Despite significant progress in model development over the past few decades, several long-standing model systematic errors remain in most global models. This essay analyzes the model development process with the aim to identify a strategy to accelerate model development. It is argued that the main effort in doing so must focus on two main areas: i) improved diagnostic techniques that are aimed directly at identifying the key process involved in the major model errors and ii) a significant increase in the size of the currently too-small model development community through better collaboration of the academic community with modeling centers and through improving the image of the science of model development in the broader community. Success will strongly depend on the ability of bringing several communities together to work jointly in large national and international research programs.
Meeting societal needs in weather, seasonal, and decadal prediction and climate projection requires a continuous improvement of the main tools used in making the predictions—global models of the Earth system. Despite significant progress in model development over the past few decades, several long-standing model systematic errors remain in most global models. This essay analyzes the model development process with the aim to identify a strategy to accelerate model development. It is argued that the main effort in doing so must focus on two main areas: i) improved diagnostic techniques that are aimed directly at identifying the key process involved in the major model errors and ii) a significant increase in the size of the currently too-small model development community through better collaboration of the academic community with modeling centers and through improving the image of the science of model development in the broader community. Success will strongly depend on the ability of bringing several communities together to work jointly in large national and international research programs.
A comprehensive dataset describing tropical cloud systems and their environmental setting and impacts has been collected during the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWPICE) and Aerosol and Chemical Transport in Tropical Convection (ACTIVE) campaign in the area around Darwin, Northern Australia, in January and February 2006. The aim of the experiment was to observe the evolution of tropical cloud systems and their interaction with the environment within an observational framework optimized for a range of modeling activities with the goal of improving the representation of cloud and aerosol process in a range of models. The experiment design utilized permanent observational facilities in Darwin, including a polarimetric weather radar and a suite of cloud remote-sensing instruments. This was augmented by a dense network of soundings, together with radiation, flux, lightning, and remote-sensing measurements, as well as oceanographic observations. A fleet of five research aircraft, including two high-altitude aircraft, were taking measurements of fluxes, cloud microphysics, and chemistry; cloud radar and lidar were carried on a third aircraft. Highlights of the experiment include an intense mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed within the network, observations used to analyze the impacts of aerosol on convective systems, and observations used to relate cirrus properties to the parent storm properties.
A comprehensive dataset describing tropical cloud systems and their environmental setting and impacts has been collected during the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWPICE) and Aerosol and Chemical Transport in Tropical Convection (ACTIVE) campaign in the area around Darwin, Northern Australia, in January and February 2006. The aim of the experiment was to observe the evolution of tropical cloud systems and their interaction with the environment within an observational framework optimized for a range of modeling activities with the goal of improving the representation of cloud and aerosol process in a range of models. The experiment design utilized permanent observational facilities in Darwin, including a polarimetric weather radar and a suite of cloud remote-sensing instruments. This was augmented by a dense network of soundings, together with radiation, flux, lightning, and remote-sensing measurements, as well as oceanographic observations. A fleet of five research aircraft, including two high-altitude aircraft, were taking measurements of fluxes, cloud microphysics, and chemistry; cloud radar and lidar were carried on a third aircraft. Highlights of the experiment include an intense mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed within the network, observations used to analyze the impacts of aerosol on convective systems, and observations used to relate cirrus properties to the parent storm properties.
Abstract
The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The aim of this initiative was to address major gaps in our understanding of Earth’s energy and water cycles given a lack of information about the basic fluxes and associated reservoirs of these cycles. GEWEX sought to acquire and set standards for climatological data on variables essential for quantifying water and energy fluxes and for closing budgets at the regional and global scales. In so doing, GEWEX activities led to a greatly improved understanding of processes and our ability to predict them. Such understanding was viewed then, as it remains today, essential for advancing weather and climate prediction from global to regional scales. GEWEX has also demonstrated over time the importance of a wider engagement of different communities and the necessity of international collaboration for making progress on understanding and on the monitoring of the changes in the energy and water cycles under ever increasing human pressures. This paper reflects on the first 30 years of evolution and progress that has occurred within GEWEX. This evolution is presented in terms of three main phases of activity. Progress toward the main goals of GEWEX is highlighted by calling out a few achievements from each phase. A vision of the path forward for the coming decade, including the goals of GEWEX for the future, are also described.
Abstract
The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The aim of this initiative was to address major gaps in our understanding of Earth’s energy and water cycles given a lack of information about the basic fluxes and associated reservoirs of these cycles. GEWEX sought to acquire and set standards for climatological data on variables essential for quantifying water and energy fluxes and for closing budgets at the regional and global scales. In so doing, GEWEX activities led to a greatly improved understanding of processes and our ability to predict them. Such understanding was viewed then, as it remains today, essential for advancing weather and climate prediction from global to regional scales. GEWEX has also demonstrated over time the importance of a wider engagement of different communities and the necessity of international collaboration for making progress on understanding and on the monitoring of the changes in the energy and water cycles under ever increasing human pressures. This paper reflects on the first 30 years of evolution and progress that has occurred within GEWEX. This evolution is presented in terms of three main phases of activity. Progress toward the main goals of GEWEX is highlighted by calling out a few achievements from each phase. A vision of the path forward for the coming decade, including the goals of GEWEX for the future, are also described.
The representation of tropical convection remains a serious challenge to the skillfulness of our weather and climate prediction systems. To address this challenge, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) are conducting a joint research activity consisting of a focus period approach along with an integrated research framework tailored to exploit the vast amounts of existing observations, expanding computational resources, and the development of new, high-resolution modeling frameworks. The objective of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) is to use these constructs to advance the characterization, modeling, parameterization, and prediction of multiscale tropical convection, including relevant two-way interactions between tropical and extratropical systems. This article highlights the diverse array of scientifically interesting and socially important weather and climate events associated with the WCRP–WWRP/THORPEX YOTC period of interest: May 2008–April 2010. Notable during this 2-yr period was the change from cool to warm El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states and the associated modulation of a wide range of smaller time- and space-scale tropical convection features. This period included a near-record-setting wet North American monsoon in 2008 and a very severe monsoon drought in India in 2009. There was also a plethora of tropical wave activity, including easterly waves, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and convectively coupled equatorial wave interactions. Numerous cases of high-impact rainfall events occurred along with notable features in the tropical cyclone record. The intent of this article is to highlight these features and phenomena, and in turn promote their interrogation via theory, observations, and models in concert with the YOTC program so that improved understanding and pre- dictions of tropical convection can be afforded.
The representation of tropical convection remains a serious challenge to the skillfulness of our weather and climate prediction systems. To address this challenge, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) are conducting a joint research activity consisting of a focus period approach along with an integrated research framework tailored to exploit the vast amounts of existing observations, expanding computational resources, and the development of new, high-resolution modeling frameworks. The objective of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) is to use these constructs to advance the characterization, modeling, parameterization, and prediction of multiscale tropical convection, including relevant two-way interactions between tropical and extratropical systems. This article highlights the diverse array of scientifically interesting and socially important weather and climate events associated with the WCRP–WWRP/THORPEX YOTC period of interest: May 2008–April 2010. Notable during this 2-yr period was the change from cool to warm El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states and the associated modulation of a wide range of smaller time- and space-scale tropical convection features. This period included a near-record-setting wet North American monsoon in 2008 and a very severe monsoon drought in India in 2009. There was also a plethora of tropical wave activity, including easterly waves, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and convectively coupled equatorial wave interactions. Numerous cases of high-impact rainfall events occurred along with notable features in the tropical cyclone record. The intent of this article is to highlight these features and phenomena, and in turn promote their interrogation via theory, observations, and models in concert with the YOTC program so that improved understanding and pre- dictions of tropical convection can be afforded.
Abstract
Numerical weather prediction models operate on grid spacings of a few kilometers, where deep convection begins to become resolvable. Around this scale, the emergence of coherent structures in the planetary boundary layer, often hypothesized to be caused by cold pools, forces the transition from shallow to deep convection. Yet, the kilometer-scale range is typically not resolved by standard surface operational measurement networks. The measurement campaign Field Experiment on Submesoscale Spatio-Temporal Variability in Lindenberg (FESSTVaL) aimed at addressing this gap by observing atmospheric variability at the hectometer-to-kilometer scale, with a particular emphasis on cold pools, wind gusts, and coherent patterns in the planetary boundary layer during summer. A unique feature was the distribution of 150 self-developed and low-cost instruments. More specifically, FESSTVaL included dense networks of 80 autonomous cold pool loggers, 19 weather stations, and 83 soil sensor systems, all installed in a rural region of 15-km radius in eastern Germany, as well as self-developed weather stations handed out to citizens. Boundary layer and upper-air observations were provided by eight Doppler lidars and four microwave radiometers distributed at three supersites; water vapor and temperature were also measured by advanced lidar systems and an infrared spectrometer; and rain was observed by a X-band radar. An uncrewed aircraft, multicopters, and a small radiometer network carried out additional measurements during a 4-week period. In this paper, we present FESSTVaL’s measurement strategy and show first observational results including unprecedented highly resolved spatiotemporal cold-pool structures, both in the horizontal as well as in the vertical dimension, associated with overpassing convective systems.
Abstract
Numerical weather prediction models operate on grid spacings of a few kilometers, where deep convection begins to become resolvable. Around this scale, the emergence of coherent structures in the planetary boundary layer, often hypothesized to be caused by cold pools, forces the transition from shallow to deep convection. Yet, the kilometer-scale range is typically not resolved by standard surface operational measurement networks. The measurement campaign Field Experiment on Submesoscale Spatio-Temporal Variability in Lindenberg (FESSTVaL) aimed at addressing this gap by observing atmospheric variability at the hectometer-to-kilometer scale, with a particular emphasis on cold pools, wind gusts, and coherent patterns in the planetary boundary layer during summer. A unique feature was the distribution of 150 self-developed and low-cost instruments. More specifically, FESSTVaL included dense networks of 80 autonomous cold pool loggers, 19 weather stations, and 83 soil sensor systems, all installed in a rural region of 15-km radius in eastern Germany, as well as self-developed weather stations handed out to citizens. Boundary layer and upper-air observations were provided by eight Doppler lidars and four microwave radiometers distributed at three supersites; water vapor and temperature were also measured by advanced lidar systems and an infrared spectrometer; and rain was observed by a X-band radar. An uncrewed aircraft, multicopters, and a small radiometer network carried out additional measurements during a 4-week period. In this paper, we present FESSTVaL’s measurement strategy and show first observational results including unprecedented highly resolved spatiotemporal cold-pool structures, both in the horizontal as well as in the vertical dimension, associated with overpassing convective systems.