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Christian Jakob

Abstract

Data from reanalyses recently carried out by several climate and numerical weather prediction centers will find a variety of applications in different branches of atmospheric science. A careful evaluation of the many aspects of these datasets is a prerequisite for their successful use.

This paper describes the implementation of a fully prognostic cloud scheme into the ECMWF reanalysis system and provides a first assessment of the simulation of cloud cover by comparing it with monthly mean cloud cover derived from satellite observations in the context of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project for the years 1983–90. Special emphasis is put on the major cloud regimes and their intra- and interannual variation.

The main deficiencies identified are an underestimation of extratropical cloud cover over the oceans by 10%–15%, an overestimation of trade wind cumulus cover by about 10%–15%, an underestimation of stratocumulus off the west coasts of the subtropical continents by 15%, and an underestimation of the summer maximum in cloud cover over the Eurasian continent. Despite these deficiencies it is shown that the reanalysis system is able to capture the main aspects of the interannual variability, especially those connected to the major El Niño events in the observation period.

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Christian Jakob
and
Courtney Schumacher

Abstract

An objective tropical cloud regime classification based on daytime averaged cloud-top pressure and optical thickness information from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) is combined with precipitation and latent heating characteristics derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). TRMM precipitation information is stratified into the ISCCP regimes in the tropical western Pacific (TWP), revealing the following three major precipitation regimes: a heavy (12 mm day−1) precipitation regime dominated by stratiform precipitation and top-heavy latent heating; a regime with moderate (5 mm day−1) precipitation amounts, mostly convective in nature with more midlevel latent heating; and a low (2 mm day−1) precipitation regime with a relatively large rain contribution from shallow convection, compared to the other regimes. Although three of the ISCCP cloud regimes are linked to the more convective, moderate precipitation regime, only one of the cloud regimes is associated with the more stratiform, top-heavy latent heating regime, making the ISCCP regimes a potentially useful tool for the further study of this dynamically important tropical weather state. Similarly, only one cloud regime is associated with the more shallow convective precipitation regime.

In terms of the TWP, precipitation and latent heating are dominated by the relatively infrequent (15%) occurrence of the strongly precipitating top-heavy latent heating state and by the frequent (>30%) occurrence of one of the more moderately precipitating convective states. The low precipitation/shallow cumulus regime occurs often (i.e., 25% of the time) but does not contribute strongly to the overall precipitation and latent heating. Each of these regimes also shows distinct geographical patterns in the TWP, thus providing insight into the distribution of convective and stratiform rain across the tropics. This study confirms the potential usefulness of the objective regime classification based on ISCCP, and it opens several new avenues for studying the interaction of convection with the large-scale tropical circulation.

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Christian Jakob
,
George Tselioudis
, and
Timothy Hume

Abstract

This study investigates the radiative, cloud, and thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere separated into objectively defined cloud regimes in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). A cluster analysis is applied to 2 yr of daytime-only data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify four major cloud regimes in the TWP region. A variety of data collected at the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) site on Manus Island is then used to identify the main characteristics of the regimes. Those include surface and top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and cloud properties derived from a suite of ground-based active remote sensors, as well as the temperature and water vapor distribution measured from radiosondes.

The major cloud regimes identified in the TWP area are two suppressed regimes—one dominated by the occurrence of mostly shallow clouds, the other by thin cirrus—as well as two convectively active regimes—one exhibiting a large coverage of optically thin cirrus clouds, the other characterized by a large coverage with optically thick clouds. All four of these TWP cloud regimes are shown to exist with varying frequency of occurrence at the ARM site at Manus. It is further shown that the detailed data available at that site can be used to characterize the radiative, cloud, and thermodynamic properties of each of the regimes, demonstrating the potential of the regime separation to facilitate the extrapolation of observations at one location to larger scales. A variety of other potential applications of the regime separation are discussed.

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Malcolm J. King
and
Christian Jakob

Abstract

Convection over the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) is strongly linked to precipitation over Africa and Australia but is poorly represented in current climate models, and its observed seasonal cycle is poorly understood. This study investigates the seasonal cycle of convection in the WEIO through rainfall and cloud measurements. Rainfall shows a single annual peak in early austral summer, but cloud proxies identify convective activity maxima in both boreal and austral summer. These diverging measures of convection during boreal summer are indicative of a reduction in the intensity of precipitation associated with a given cloud regime or cloud-top height during this time of year but an increase in the overall occurrence of high-top clouds and convectively active cloud regimes. The change in precipitation intensity associated with regimes is found to explain most of the changes in total precipitation during the period from May to November, whereas changes in the occurrence of convective regimes explains most of the changes throughout the rest of the year. The reduction in precipitation intensities associated with cloud regimes over the WEIO during boreal summer appears to be related to large-scale monsoon circulations, which suppress convection through forcing air descent in the midtroposphere and increase the apparent occurrence of convectively active cloud regimes through the advection of high-level cloud from monsoon-active areas toward the WEIO region.

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Jennifer Fletcher
,
Shannon Mason
, and
Christian Jakob

Abstract

A comparison of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is presented, with attention to their seasonality, frequency of occurrence, and strength as measured by a cold air outbreak index. When considered on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis, MCAOs are more severe and more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in winter. However, when MCAOs are viewed as individual events regardless of horizontal extent, they occur more frequently in the SH. This is fundamentally because NH MCAOs are larger and stronger than those in the SH. MCAOs occur throughout the year, but in warm seasons and in the SH they are smaller and weaker than in cold seasons and in the NH. In both hemispheres, strong MCAOs occupy the cold air sector of midlatitude cyclones, which generally appear to be in their growth phase. Weak MCAOs in the SH occur under generally zonal flow with a slight northward component associated with weak zonal pressure gradients, while weak NH MCAOs occur under such a wide range of conditions that no characteristic synoptic pattern emerges from compositing. Strong boundary layer deepening, warming, and moistening occur as a result of the surface heat fluxes within MCAOs.

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Mick Pope
,
Christian Jakob
, and
Michael J. Reeder

Abstract

The climatology of convection over northern Australia and the surrounding oceans, based on six wet seasons (September–April), is derived from the Japanese Meteorological Agency Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (GMS-5) IR1 channel for the years from 1995/96 to 2000/01. This is the first multiyear study of this kind. Clouds are identified at two cloud-top temperature thresholds: 235 and 208 K. The annual cycle of cloudiness over northern Australia shows an initial (October–November) buildup over the Darwin region before widespread cloudiness develops over the entire region during the monsoon months (December–February), followed by a northward contraction during March and April. Tracking mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveals that both the size of the cloud systems and their lifetimes follow power-law distributions. For short-lived MCSs (less than 12 h), the initial expansion of the cloudy area is related to the lifetime, with mergers important for long-lived MCSs (greater than 24 h). During periods of deep zonal flow, which coincide with the active phase of the monsoon, the number of convective elements in the Darwin region peaks in the early afternoon, which is characteristic of the diurnal cycle over land. In contrast, when the zonal flow is deep and easterly and the monsoon is in a break phase, the areal extent of the convective elements in the Darwin region is greatest in the late morning, which is more typical of maritime convection.

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Mick Pope
,
Christian Jakob
, and
Michael J. Reeder
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Jennifer L. Catto
,
Neville Nicholls
, and
Christian Jakob

Abstract

Interannual variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) to the north of Australia are strongly linked to variations in Australian climate, including winter rainfall and tropical cyclone numbers. The north Australian SSTs are also closely linked to ENSO and tropical Pacific SSTs, with the relationship exhibiting a strong seasonal cycle. Credible predictions of Australian climate change therefore depend on climate models being able to represent ENSO and its connection to north Australian SSTs, the topic of this study.

First, the observational datasets of the Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) are used to document the links between the Niño-3.4 index and a north Australian SST index, and the temporal evolution of north Australian SSTs during ENSO events. During austral autumn, the correlation between Niño-3.4 SST and north Australian SST is positive, while in austral spring it is strongly negative. During El Niño events, the north Australian SST anomalies become negative in the austral spring preceding the development of the positive Niño-3.4 SST anomalies.

The coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) are evaluated in terms of this temporal evolution of Niño-3.4 SST and the relationship to north Australian SST for the twentieth-century simulations. Some of the models perform very well, while some do not capture the seasonal cycle of correlations at all. The way in which these relationships may change in the future is examined using the A2 emissions scenario in those models that do a reasonable job of capturing the present-day observed relationship, and very little change is found.

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Jennifer L. Catto
,
Neville Nicholls
, and
Christian Jakob

Abstract

Aspects of the climate of Australia are linked to interannual variability of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to the north of the country. SST anomalies in this region have been shown to exhibit strong, seasonally varying links to ENSO and tropical Pacific SSTs.

Previously, the models participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) have been evaluated and found to vary in their abilities to represent both the seasonal cycle of correlations between the Niño-3.4 and north Australian SSTs and the evolution of SSTs during composite El Niño and La Niña events. In this study, the new suite of models participating in the CMIP5 is evaluated using the same method. In the multimodel mean, the representation of the links is slightly improved, but generally the models do not capture the strength of the negative correlations during the second half of the year. The models also still struggle to capture the SST evolution in the north Australian region during El Niño and La Niña events.

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Martin Bergemann
,
Christian Jakob
, and
Todd P. Lane

Abstract

Coastally associated rainfall is a common feature, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it has been difficult to quantify the contribution of coastal rainfall features to the overall local rainfall. The authors develop a novel technique to objectively identify precipitation associated with land–sea interaction and apply it to satellite-based rainfall estimates. The Maritime Continent, the Bight of Panama, Madagascar, and the Mediterranean are found to be regions where land–sea interactions play a crucial role in the formation of precipitation. In these regions ~40%–60% of the total rainfall can be related to coastline effects. Because of its importance for the climate system, the Maritime Continent is a region of particular interest, with high overall amounts of rainfall and large fractions resulting from land–sea interactions throughout the year. To demonstrate the utility of this study’s identification method, the authors investigate the influence of several modes of variability, such as the Madden–Julian oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, on coastal rainfall behavior. The results suggest that during large-scale suppressed convective conditions, coastal effects tend to modulate the rainfall over the Maritime Continent leading to enhanced rainfall over land regions compared to the surrounding oceans. The authors propose that the novel objective dataset of coastally influenced precipitation can be used in a variety of ways, such as to inform cumulus parameterization or as an additional tool for evaluating the simulation of coastal precipitation within weather and climate models.

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