Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Author or Editor: Christopher A. Hiemstra x
  • Journal of Hydrometeorology x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Glen E. Liston
and
Christopher A. Hiemstra

Abstract

A methodology for assimilating ground-based and remotely sensed snow data within a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) is presented. The data assimilation scheme (SnowAssim) is consistent with optimal interpolation approaches in which the differences between the observed and modeled snow values are used to constrain modeled outputs. The calculated corrections are applied retroactively to create improved fields prior to the assimilated observations. Thus, one of the values of this scheme is the improved simulation of snow-related distributions throughout the entire snow season, even when observations are only available late in the accumulation and/or ablation periods. Because of this, the technique is particularly applicable to reanalysis applications. The methodology includes the ability to stratify the assimilation into regions where either the observations and/or model has unique error properties, such as the differences between forested and nonforested snow environments. The methodologies are introduced using synthetic data and a simple simulation domain. In addition, the model is applied over NASA’s Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX), Rabbit Ears Pass, Colorado, observation domain. Simulations using the data assimilation scheme were found to improve the modeled snow water equivalent (SWE) distributions, and simulated SWE displayed considerably more realistic spatial heterogeneity than that provided by the observations alone.

Full access
Steven J. Fletcher
,
Glen E. Liston
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
, and
Steven D. Miller

Abstract

In this paper four simple computationally inexpensive, direct insertion data assimilation schemes are presented, and evaluated, to assimilate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover, which is a binary observation, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (EOS) (AMSR-E) snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, which are at a coarser resolution than MODIS, into a numerical snow evolution model. The four schemes are 1) assimilate MODIS snow cover on its own with an arbitrary 0.01 m added to the model cells if there is a difference in snow cover; 2) iteratively change the model SWE values to match the AMSR-E equivalent value; 3) AMSR-E scheme with MODIS observations constraining which cells can be changed, when both sets of observations are available; and 4) MODIS-only scheme when the AMSR-E observations are not available, otherwise scheme 3. These schemes are used in the winter of 2006/07 over the southeast corner of Colorado and the tri-state area: Wyoming, Colorado, and Nebraska. It is shown that the inclusion of MODIS data enables the model in the north domain to have a 15% improvement in number of days with a less than 10% disagreement with the MODIS observation 24 h later and approximately 5% for the south domain. It is shown that the AMSR-E scheme has more of an impact in the south domain than the north domain. The assimilation results are also compared to station snow-depth data in both domains, where there is up-to-a-factor-of-5 underestimation of snow depth by the assimilation schemes compared with the station data but the snow evolution is fairly consistent.

Full access
Sebastian H. Mernild
,
Glen E. Liston
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
,
Jacob C. Yde
, and
Gino Casassa

Abstract

We analyzed modeled river runoff variations west of the Andes Cordillera’s continental divide for 1979/80–2013/14 (35 years). Our foci were annual runoff conditions, runoff origins (rain, snowmelt, and glacier ice), and runoff spatiotemporal variability. Low and high runoff conditions were defined as occurrences that fall outside the 10th (low values) and 90th (high values) percentile values of the period of record. SnowModel and HydroFlow modeling tools were used at 4-km horizontal grid increments and 3-h time intervals. NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets were used as atmospheric forcing. This modeling system includes evaporation and sublimation from snow-covered surfaces, but it does not take into account evapotranspiration from bare and vegetation-covered soils and from river and lake surfaces. In general for the Andes Cordillera, the simulated runoff decreased before 1997 and increased afterward. This could be due to a model precipitation artifact in the MERRA forcing. If so, this artifact would influence the number of years with low runoff values, which decreased over time, while the number of high runoff values increased over time. For latitudes south of ~40°S, both the greatest decrease in the number of low runoff values and the greatest increase in high runoff values occurred. High runoff values averaged 84% and 58% higher than low values for nonglacierized and glacierized catchments, respectively. Furthermore, for glacierized catchments, 61% and 62% of the runoff originated from rain-derived runoff during low and high runoff extreme years, respectively; 28% and 30% from snowmelt-derived runoff; and 11% and 8% from glacier-ice-melt-derived runoff. As the results could be MERRA dependent, more work with other precipitation forcings and/or in situ measurements is needed to assess whether these are real runoff behaviors or artifacts.

Open access
Glen E. Liston
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
,
Kelly Elder
, and
Donald W. Cline

Abstract

The Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) had a goal of describing snow-related features over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This required linking disparate snow tools and datasets into one coherent, integrated package. Simulating realistic high-resolution snow distributions and features requires a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) that can distribute meteorological forcings, simulate snowpack accumulation and ablation processes, and assimilate snow-related observations. A SnowModel was developed and used to simulate winter snow accumulation across three 30 km × 30 km domains, enveloping the CLPX mesocell study areas (MSAs) in Colorado. The three MSAs have distinct topography, vegetation, meteorological, and snow characteristics. Simulations were performed using a 30-m grid increment and spanned the snow accumulation season (1 October 2002–1 April 2003). Meteorological forcing was provided by 27 meteorological stations and 75 atmospheric analyses grid points, distributed using a meteorological model (MicroMet). The simulations included a data assimilation model (SnowAssim) that adjusted simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) toward ground-based and airborne SWE observations. The observations consisted of SWE over three 1 km × 1 km intensive study areas (ISAs) for each MSA and a collection of 117 airborne gamma observations, each integrating area 10 km long by 300 m wide. Simulated SWE distributions displayed considerably more spatial heterogeneity than the observations alone, and the simulated distribution patterns closely fit the current understanding of snow evolution processes and observed snow depths. This is the result of the MicroMet/SnowModel’s relatively finescale representations of orographic precipitation, elevation-dependant snowmelt, wind redistribution, and snow–vegetation interactions.

Full access
Glen E. Liston
,
Daniel L. Birkenheuer
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
,
Donald W. Cline
, and
Kelly Elder

Abstract

This paper describes the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the 20-km horizontal grid version of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC20) atmospheric analyses datasets, which are available as part of the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) data archive. The LAPS dataset contains spatially and temporally continuous atmospheric and surface variables over Colorado, Wyoming, and parts of the surrounding states. The analysis used a 10-km horizontal grid with 21 vertical levels and an hourly temporal resolution. The LAPS archive includes forty-six 1D surface fields and nine 3D upper-air fields, spanning the period 1 September 2001 through 31 August 2003. The RUC20 dataset includes hourly 3D atmospheric analyses over the contiguous United States and parts of southern Canada and northern Mexico, with 50 vertical levels. The RUC20 archive contains forty-six 1D surface fields and fourteen 3D upper-air fields, spanning the period 1 October 2002 through 31 September 2003. The datasets are archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.

Full access
Sebastian H. Mernild
,
Glen E. Liston
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
, and
Konrad Steffen

Abstract

SnowModel, a physically based snow-evolution modeling system that includes four submodels—MicroMet, EnBal, SnowPack, and SnowTran-3D—was used to simulate variations in Greenland [including the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS)] surface snow and ice melt, as well as water balance components, for 1995–2005. Meteorological observations from 25 stations inside and outside the GrIS were used as model input. Winter and summer mass balance observations, spatial snow depth observations, and snowmelt depletion curves derived from time-lapse photography from the Mittivakkat and Zackenberg glacierized catchments in East Greenland were used to validate the performance of SnowModel. Model results compared well with observed values, confirming the robustness of the model. The yearly modeled GrIS interior nonmelt area differs from satellite observations by a maximum of ∼68 000 km2 (or ∼6%) in 2004, and the lowest uncertainties (<8000 km2, or <1%) occur for the years with the smallest (2005) and most extensive (1996) nonmelt areas. Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 2950 m MSL for 2005, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuates from 1640 to 600 m MSL. The modeled interannual variability in the nonmelt area also agrees with observation records (R 2 = 0.96), yielding simulated GrIS nonmelt covers of 71% for 1996 and 50% for 2005. On average, the simulated nonmelt area decreased ∼6% from 1995 to 2005; this trend is similar to observed values. An average surface mass balance (SMB) storage of 138(±81) km3 yr−1, a GrIS loss of 257(±81) km3 yr−1, and a runoff contribution to the ocean of 392(±58) km3 yr−1 occurred for the period 1995–2005. Approximately 58% and 42% of the runoff came from the GrIS western and eastern drainage areas, respectively. The modeled average specific runoff from the GrIS was 6.71 s−1 km−2 yr−1, which, over the simulation period, represents a contribution of ∼1.1 mm yr−1 to global sea level rise.

Full access
Sebastian H. Mernild
,
Glen E. Liston
,
Christopher A. Hiemstra
, and
Jens H. Christensen

Abstract

Fluctuations in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. A state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A1B modeled by the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM) using boundary conditions from the ECHAM5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In situ meteorological station [Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)] observations from inside and outside the GrIS were used to validate and correct RCM output data before they were used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model’s robustness. The authors simulated an ∼90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 × 106 km2) from 1950 to 2080 and a melt index (above 2000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 × 106 km2 × days). The greatest difference in melt extent occurred in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days were seen in the eastern part of the GrIS (∼50%–70%) and were lowest in the west (∼20%–30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, leads to an enhanced average loss of 331 km3 from 1950 to 2080 and an average SMB level of −99 km3 for the period 2070–80. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded a eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 ± 0.1 (1950–59) to 1.9 ± 0.1 mm (2070–80) sea level equivalent (SLE) yr−1. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160-mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.

Full access