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Thierry Bergot
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Daniel Guedalia

Abstract

To improve the forecast of dense radiative fogs, a method has been developed using a one-dimensional model of the nocturnal boundary layer forced by the mesoscale fields provided by a 3D limited-area operational model. The 1D model involves a treatment of soil-atmosphere exchanges and a parameterization of turbulence in stable layers in order to correctly simulate the nocturnal atmospheric cooling.

Various sensitivity tests have been carried out to evaluate the influence of the main input parameters of the model (geostrophic wind, horizontal advections, cloud cover, soil moisture, etc.) on the predicted fog characteristics. The principal result concerns the difficulty of obtaining accurate forecasts in the case of fog appearing in the middle or at the end of the night, when the local atmospheric cooling is weak.

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Daniel Guedalia
and
Thierry Bergot

Abstract

A 1D model adapted for forecasting the formation and development of fog, and forced with mesoscale parameters derived from a 3D limited-area model, was used to simulate three fog event observations made during the Lille 88 campaign. The model simulation correctly reproduced the time of fog formation and its vertical development when forcing terms derived from observations were used. It determined the influence of different physical processes and in particular that of dew deposition. The initial conditions deduced from the 3D model proved to be correct in two of the three events. On the other hand, the prediction of advection terms necessary for forecasting the vertical growth of fog was a more delicate matter.

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