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- Author or Editor: David O. Blanchard x
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Abstract
An unusual severe weather event with supercell thunderstorms developed across portions of northern Arizona in the midst of the warm-season North American monsoon—a regime characteristically dominated by a subtropical upper-level high over the southwestern United States. The approach of a midlatitude, cold-core, upper-level low brought an environment of enhanced shear and increased instability supportive of supercells. This atypical system is described and how a correct interpretation of the winds and hodograph would allow a forecaster to maintain situational awareness is discussed.
Abstract
An unusual severe weather event with supercell thunderstorms developed across portions of northern Arizona in the midst of the warm-season North American monsoon—a regime characteristically dominated by a subtropical upper-level high over the southwestern United States. The approach of a midlatitude, cold-core, upper-level low brought an environment of enhanced shear and increased instability supportive of supercells. This atypical system is described and how a correct interpretation of the winds and hodograph would allow a forecaster to maintain situational awareness is discussed.
Abstract
Comparisons of convective available potential energy (CAPE) with standard instability indices for evaluating the convective potential of the atmosphere such as the lifted index (LI) reveal only moderate correlations. This is because the LI is a measure of single-level buoyancy while CAPE is a measure of both integration depth and the buoyancy. Normalizing the CAPE values by the depth over which the integration takes place provides an index (NCAPE) that is independent of the depth and is a convenient measure of the mean parcel buoyancy. This normalization effectively distinguishes between environments with similar CAPE but exhibiting different buoyancy and integration depth. Also, because the vertical distribution of CAPE can have an important effect on convective updraft strength, it is advantageous to vertically partition CAPE and NCAPE into multiple layers. NCAPE may provide a more useful indicator of buoyancy in environments in which the depth of free convection is shallow and total CAPE is small. It is suggested that NCAPE computations be used in combination with CAPE for evaluation of convective potential.
Abstract
Comparisons of convective available potential energy (CAPE) with standard instability indices for evaluating the convective potential of the atmosphere such as the lifted index (LI) reveal only moderate correlations. This is because the LI is a measure of single-level buoyancy while CAPE is a measure of both integration depth and the buoyancy. Normalizing the CAPE values by the depth over which the integration takes place provides an index (NCAPE) that is independent of the depth and is a convenient measure of the mean parcel buoyancy. This normalization effectively distinguishes between environments with similar CAPE but exhibiting different buoyancy and integration depth. Also, because the vertical distribution of CAPE can have an important effect on convective updraft strength, it is advantageous to vertically partition CAPE and NCAPE into multiple layers. NCAPE may provide a more useful indicator of buoyancy in environments in which the depth of free convection is shallow and total CAPE is small. It is suggested that NCAPE computations be used in combination with CAPE for evaluation of convective potential.
Abstract
Damage surveys in the aftermath of tornadoes occurring in the forested regions of the Mogollon Rim in northern Arizona have been assessed using the enhanced Fujita scale (EF scale) damage indicator (DI) and degree of damage (DOD) tables. These surveys often revealed different DODs within close proximity as well as different spatial patterns and areal extent of tree damage exhibiting the same DOD, making the determination of wind speed and EF-scale ratings challenging. A localized tornado outbreak occurred across northern Arizona on 6 October 2010, producing at least 11 tornadoes and substantial areas of forest damage. Remarkably, one of these tornadoes passed over a three-dimensional sonic anemometer. Wind data from this sensor are compared with tree damage in the adjacent forest to assess the performance of the EF-scale metrics for damage to trees.
Abstract
Damage surveys in the aftermath of tornadoes occurring in the forested regions of the Mogollon Rim in northern Arizona have been assessed using the enhanced Fujita scale (EF scale) damage indicator (DI) and degree of damage (DOD) tables. These surveys often revealed different DODs within close proximity as well as different spatial patterns and areal extent of tree damage exhibiting the same DOD, making the determination of wind speed and EF-scale ratings challenging. A localized tornado outbreak occurred across northern Arizona on 6 October 2010, producing at least 11 tornadoes and substantial areas of forest damage. Remarkably, one of these tornadoes passed over a three-dimensional sonic anemometer. Wind data from this sensor are compared with tree damage in the adjacent forest to assess the performance of the EF-scale metrics for damage to trees.
Abstract
All of the 0000 UTC soundings from the United States made during the year 1992 that have nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) are examined. Soundings are classified as being associated with nonsupercell thunderstorms, supercells without significant tornadoes, and supercells with significant tornadoes. This classification is made by attempting to pair, based on the low-level sounding winds, an upstream sounding with each occurrence of a significant tornado, large hail, and/or 10 or more cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. Severe weather wind parameters (mean shear, 0–6-km shear, storm-relative helicity, and storm-relative anvil-level flow) and CAPE parameters (total CAPE and CAPE in the lowest 3000 m with buoyancy) are shown to discriminate weakly between the environments of the three classified types of storms. Combined parameters (energy–helicity index and vorticity generation parameter) discriminate strongly between the environments. The height of the lifting condensation level also appears to be generally lower for supercells with significant tornadoes than those without. The causes for the very large false alarm rates in the tornadic/nontornadic supercell forecast, even with the best discriminators, are discussed.
Abstract
All of the 0000 UTC soundings from the United States made during the year 1992 that have nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) are examined. Soundings are classified as being associated with nonsupercell thunderstorms, supercells without significant tornadoes, and supercells with significant tornadoes. This classification is made by attempting to pair, based on the low-level sounding winds, an upstream sounding with each occurrence of a significant tornado, large hail, and/or 10 or more cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. Severe weather wind parameters (mean shear, 0–6-km shear, storm-relative helicity, and storm-relative anvil-level flow) and CAPE parameters (total CAPE and CAPE in the lowest 3000 m with buoyancy) are shown to discriminate weakly between the environments of the three classified types of storms. Combined parameters (energy–helicity index and vorticity generation parameter) discriminate strongly between the environments. The height of the lifting condensation level also appears to be generally lower for supercells with significant tornadoes than those without. The causes for the very large false alarm rates in the tornadic/nontornadic supercell forecast, even with the best discriminators, are discussed.
