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Jeffrey Shaman
,
R. M. Samelson
, and
Eric Skyllingstad

Abstract

The intraseasonal variability of turbulent surface heat fluxes over the Gulf Stream extension and subtropical mode water regions of the North Atlantic, and long-term trends in these fluxes, are explored using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes from these surface waters are characterized by episodic high flux events due to cold air outbreaks from North America. Up to 60% of the November–March (NDJFM) total sensible heat flux and 45% of latent heat flux occurs on these high flux days. On average 41% (34%) of the total NDJFM sensible (latent) heat flux takes place during just 17% (20%) of the days. Over the last 60 years, seasonal NDJFM sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Mode Water Dynamic Experiment (CLIMODE) region have increased owing to an increased number of high flux event days. The increased storm frequency has altered average wintertime temperature conditions in the region, producing colder surface air conditions over the North American eastern seaboard and Labrador Sea and warmer temperatures over the Sargasso Sea. These temperature changes have increased low-level vertical wind shear and baroclinicity along the North Atlantic storm track over the last 60 years and may further favor the trend of increasing storm frequency over the Gulf Stream extension and adjacent region.

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