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- Author or Editor: Eugene S. Takle x
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology x
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Abstract
A survey of the characteristics of frost occurrences on bridges and roadways derived from questionnaires completed by highway maintenance personnel and analysis of more than 4000 frost observations in Iowa reveal that bridge frost occurs up to 58 times annually in certain parts of the state and, roadway frost, as many as 35 times. Certain bridges or stretches of road seem frost-prone because of their location or because of adjacent features. An expert system designed to provide 20-b forecasts of roadway and bridge frost has been constructed from analysis of meteorological conditions and has been evaluated against human forecasters. The expert system, when supplied with perfect forecasts of commonly forecast meteorological variables, produced accuracy com- parable to or higher than human forecasters. Human forecasters were observed to provide relatively unbiased forecasts for bridge frost but were highly biased toward reducing false alarms for roadway frost. The expert system, by contrast, is configured so that the decision threshold can be adjusted to give unbiased forecasts or forecasts that are biased in either direction without significant degradation of accuracy. A suggestion is made for the use of such a system as a management tool for separating forecast accuracy from (possibly nonmeteorological) decision-threshold criteria.
Abstract
A survey of the characteristics of frost occurrences on bridges and roadways derived from questionnaires completed by highway maintenance personnel and analysis of more than 4000 frost observations in Iowa reveal that bridge frost occurs up to 58 times annually in certain parts of the state and, roadway frost, as many as 35 times. Certain bridges or stretches of road seem frost-prone because of their location or because of adjacent features. An expert system designed to provide 20-b forecasts of roadway and bridge frost has been constructed from analysis of meteorological conditions and has been evaluated against human forecasters. The expert system, when supplied with perfect forecasts of commonly forecast meteorological variables, produced accuracy com- parable to or higher than human forecasters. Human forecasters were observed to provide relatively unbiased forecasts for bridge frost but were highly biased toward reducing false alarms for roadway frost. The expert system, by contrast, is configured so that the decision threshold can be adjusted to give unbiased forecasts or forecasts that are biased in either direction without significant degradation of accuracy. A suggestion is made for the use of such a system as a management tool for separating forecast accuracy from (possibly nonmeteorological) decision-threshold criteria.
Abstract
A three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model has been used to examine the effects of large-scale background winds on the characteristics of the sea–land-breeze circulations over an area with an irregular coastline and complex surface-heating patterns at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral in Florida. A series of numerical experiments was performed in which the large-scale winds were varied in both speed and direction. The surface heating was based on measured surface-temperature variation from the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (KABLE) during the spring season when the land–sea temperature gradient reaches its maximum. The results from the simulations compared reasonably well with data available from KABLE.
The results show that an onshore large-scale flow produces weaker sea-breeze perturbations compared to those generated by an offshore flow. However, the coastal rivers and lagoons create intense surface convergence with strong vertical motion on the seaward side of the river by the merging of the onshore flow with the offshore river breezes, and such strong vertical motion can last for several hours. The disturbances caused by the inland water bodies are significant in the sea-breeze phase but are very minor in the land-breeze phase. An onshore synoptic wind causes an earlier onset of the sea breeze, but delays the onset of the land breeze, and a strong onshore flow of more than 5 m s−1 does not allow the land breeze to develop at all. The maximum offshore wind speed and vertical motion at night are less sensitive to the magnitude of surface cooling than to the large-scale flow and daytime surface heating, which together determine the initial flow at the beginning of the land–breeze phase. The results also show that the magnitude, the sense of rotation, and the diurnal variation of the dominant forces governing the wind-vector rotation change as the orientation of the synoptic wind direction changes. The rate of rotation in the sea-breeze phase is dominated mainly by the balance between the mesoscale pressure gradient and friction; at night, the Coriolis effect also contributes significantly to the balance of forces in the land-breeze phase.
Abstract
A three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model has been used to examine the effects of large-scale background winds on the characteristics of the sea–land-breeze circulations over an area with an irregular coastline and complex surface-heating patterns at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral in Florida. A series of numerical experiments was performed in which the large-scale winds were varied in both speed and direction. The surface heating was based on measured surface-temperature variation from the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (KABLE) during the spring season when the land–sea temperature gradient reaches its maximum. The results from the simulations compared reasonably well with data available from KABLE.
The results show that an onshore large-scale flow produces weaker sea-breeze perturbations compared to those generated by an offshore flow. However, the coastal rivers and lagoons create intense surface convergence with strong vertical motion on the seaward side of the river by the merging of the onshore flow with the offshore river breezes, and such strong vertical motion can last for several hours. The disturbances caused by the inland water bodies are significant in the sea-breeze phase but are very minor in the land-breeze phase. An onshore synoptic wind causes an earlier onset of the sea breeze, but delays the onset of the land breeze, and a strong onshore flow of more than 5 m s−1 does not allow the land breeze to develop at all. The maximum offshore wind speed and vertical motion at night are less sensitive to the magnitude of surface cooling than to the large-scale flow and daytime surface heating, which together determine the initial flow at the beginning of the land–breeze phase. The results also show that the magnitude, the sense of rotation, and the diurnal variation of the dominant forces governing the wind-vector rotation change as the orientation of the synoptic wind direction changes. The rate of rotation in the sea-breeze phase is dominated mainly by the balance between the mesoscale pressure gradient and friction; at night, the Coriolis effect also contributes significantly to the balance of forces in the land-breeze phase.
Abstract
The diurnal evolution of the three-dimensional structure of a mesoscale circulation system frequently occurring in the area of Kennedy Span Center-Cape Canaveral has been studied using the data from the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (KABLE). The case was chosen from the spring intensive data-collection period when the greatest daytime temperature difference between land and water (sea and inland rivers) occurs and the local circulations are most intense. The daytime flow structure was determined primarily by the mesoscale pressure-gradient form created by the temperature contrast between land and water. A strong sea-breeze circulation, the dominant feature of the daytime flow field, was modified by a local inland river breeze known as the Indian River breeze, in that divergent flow over the river enhanced the sea-breeze convergence on the seaward side and generated additional convergence on the landward side of the river. The rivers near the coastline also modified the initial flow field by enhancing convergence in the surrounding areas and speeding up the movement of the sea-breeze front. The nighttime flow structure was dominated by a large-scale land breeze that was relatively uniform over the area and became quasi-stationary after midnight. The nonuniformity of the wind-vector rotation rate suggests that mesoscale forcing significantly modifies the Coriolis-induced oscillation. No clear convergence patterns associated with the rivers were observed at night. Detailed characteristics over a diurnal cycle of the sea-land breeze and of the river breeze onset time, strength, depth, propagation speed and both landward and seaward extension, are documented in this study. Some boundary-layer characteristics needed for predicting diffusion of pollutants released from coastal launch pads, including atmospheric stability, depth of the thermal internal boundary layer, and turbulent mixing are also discussed.
Abstract
The diurnal evolution of the three-dimensional structure of a mesoscale circulation system frequently occurring in the area of Kennedy Span Center-Cape Canaveral has been studied using the data from the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (KABLE). The case was chosen from the spring intensive data-collection period when the greatest daytime temperature difference between land and water (sea and inland rivers) occurs and the local circulations are most intense. The daytime flow structure was determined primarily by the mesoscale pressure-gradient form created by the temperature contrast between land and water. A strong sea-breeze circulation, the dominant feature of the daytime flow field, was modified by a local inland river breeze known as the Indian River breeze, in that divergent flow over the river enhanced the sea-breeze convergence on the seaward side and generated additional convergence on the landward side of the river. The rivers near the coastline also modified the initial flow field by enhancing convergence in the surrounding areas and speeding up the movement of the sea-breeze front. The nighttime flow structure was dominated by a large-scale land breeze that was relatively uniform over the area and became quasi-stationary after midnight. The nonuniformity of the wind-vector rotation rate suggests that mesoscale forcing significantly modifies the Coriolis-induced oscillation. No clear convergence patterns associated with the rivers were observed at night. Detailed characteristics over a diurnal cycle of the sea-land breeze and of the river breeze onset time, strength, depth, propagation speed and both landward and seaward extension, are documented in this study. Some boundary-layer characteristics needed for predicting diffusion of pollutants released from coastal launch pads, including atmospheric stability, depth of the thermal internal boundary layer, and turbulent mixing are also discussed.
Abstract
A neutral boundary layer nonhydrostatic numerical model is used to determine the characteristics of shelterbelt effects on mean wind direction and to study the processing causing wind rotation when air passes through a shelterbelt. The model uses a turbulence scheme that includes prognostic equations for turbulence kinetic energy and a master length scale proposed by Mellor and Yamada. The simulated results are in quantitative agreement with Nord's field measurements. The spatial variation of wind rotation and its dependence on incident angle and shelterbelt porosity is analysed. Dynamic processes of the wind rotation and its interactions with drag force and pressure perturbation are also discussed. It is concluded that shear of wind direction should be considered, along with shear of speed, in determining turbulent fluxes in the vicinity of a shelterbelt.
Abstract
A neutral boundary layer nonhydrostatic numerical model is used to determine the characteristics of shelterbelt effects on mean wind direction and to study the processing causing wind rotation when air passes through a shelterbelt. The model uses a turbulence scheme that includes prognostic equations for turbulence kinetic energy and a master length scale proposed by Mellor and Yamada. The simulated results are in quantitative agreement with Nord's field measurements. The spatial variation of wind rotation and its dependence on incident angle and shelterbelt porosity is analysed. Dynamic processes of the wind rotation and its interactions with drag force and pressure perturbation are also discussed. It is concluded that shear of wind direction should be considered, along with shear of speed, in determining turbulent fluxes in the vicinity of a shelterbelt.
Abstract
Frost on roadways and bridges can present hazardous conditions to motorists, particularly when it occurs in patches or on bridges when adjacent roadways are clear of frost. To minimize materials costs, vehicle corrosion, and negative environmental impacts, frost-suppression chemicals should be applied only when, where, and in the appropriate amounts needed to maintain roadways in a safe condition for motorists. Accurate forecasts of frost onset times, frost intensity, and frost disappearance (e.g., melting or sublimation) are needed to help roadway maintenance personnel decide when, where, and how much frost-suppression chemical to use. A finite-difference algorithm (BridgeT) has been developed that simulates vertical heat transfer in a bridge based on evolving meteorological conditions at its top and bottom as supplied by a weather forecast model. BridgeT simulates bridge temperatures at numerous points within the bridge (including its upper and lower surface) at each time step of the weather forecast model and calculates volume per unit area (i.e., depth) of deposited, melted, or sublimed frost. This model produces forecasts of bridge surface temperature, frost depth, and bridge condition (i.e., dry, wet, icy/snowy). Bridge frost predictions and bridge surface temperature are compared with observed and measured values to assess BridgeT's skill in forecasting bridge frost and associated conditions.
Abstract
Frost on roadways and bridges can present hazardous conditions to motorists, particularly when it occurs in patches or on bridges when adjacent roadways are clear of frost. To minimize materials costs, vehicle corrosion, and negative environmental impacts, frost-suppression chemicals should be applied only when, where, and in the appropriate amounts needed to maintain roadways in a safe condition for motorists. Accurate forecasts of frost onset times, frost intensity, and frost disappearance (e.g., melting or sublimation) are needed to help roadway maintenance personnel decide when, where, and how much frost-suppression chemical to use. A finite-difference algorithm (BridgeT) has been developed that simulates vertical heat transfer in a bridge based on evolving meteorological conditions at its top and bottom as supplied by a weather forecast model. BridgeT simulates bridge temperatures at numerous points within the bridge (including its upper and lower surface) at each time step of the weather forecast model and calculates volume per unit area (i.e., depth) of deposited, melted, or sublimed frost. This model produces forecasts of bridge surface temperature, frost depth, and bridge condition (i.e., dry, wet, icy/snowy). Bridge frost predictions and bridge surface temperature are compared with observed and measured values to assess BridgeT's skill in forecasting bridge frost and associated conditions.
Abstract
Limitations in skill of wind speed forecasts lead to conservative bids of wind-plant production in the day-ahead energy market and usually to an underutilization of wind resources. Improvements are needed in understanding wind characteristics in the turbine-rotor layer (40–120 m) for developing refined forecast models. The seasonal and diurnal behavior of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature were analyzed from data taken on five tall meteorological towers across Iowa. Several significant high-shear events, which would have the potential to cause problems by inducing substantial stress on the infrastructure of the wind turbine, were observed, with vertical shear up to 15 m s−1 accompanied by 30° of directional shear between 50 and 200 m. These events exhibited supergeostrophic wind speeds by 50% through the night followed by a collapse of shear through midday, indicating the influence of an inertial oscillation.
Abstract
Limitations in skill of wind speed forecasts lead to conservative bids of wind-plant production in the day-ahead energy market and usually to an underutilization of wind resources. Improvements are needed in understanding wind characteristics in the turbine-rotor layer (40–120 m) for developing refined forecast models. The seasonal and diurnal behavior of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature were analyzed from data taken on five tall meteorological towers across Iowa. Several significant high-shear events, which would have the potential to cause problems by inducing substantial stress on the infrastructure of the wind turbine, were observed, with vertical shear up to 15 m s−1 accompanied by 30° of directional shear between 50 and 200 m. These events exhibited supergeostrophic wind speeds by 50% through the night followed by a collapse of shear through midday, indicating the influence of an inertial oscillation.
Abstract
The Taipei basin, located in northern Taiwan, is formed at the intersection of the Tanshui River valley (~30 km) and the Keelung River valley (~60 km). Summer is the dry season in northern Taiwan, but the maximum rainfall in the Taipei basin occurs during 15 June–31 August. The majority of summer rainfall in this basin is produced by afternoon thunderstorms. Thus, the water supply, air/land traffic, and pollution for this basin can be profoundly affected by interannual variations of thunderstorm days and rainfall. Because the mechanism for these interannual variations is still unknown, a systematic analysis is made of thunderstorm days and rainfall for the past two decades (1993–2013). These two variables are found to correlate opposite interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies over the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Niño-3.4 region. Occurrence days for afternoon thunderstorms and rainfall amounts in the Taipei basin double during the cold El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase relative to the warm phase. During the latter phase, a stronger cold/drier monsoon southwesterly flow caused by the Pacific–Japan Oscillation weakens the thunderstorm activity in the Taipei basin through the land–sea breeze. In contrast, the opposite condition occurs during the cold ENSO phase. The water vapor flux over the East/Southeast Asian monsoon region converges more toward Taiwan to maintain rainfall over the Taipei basin during the cold ENSO phase than during the warm ENSO phase.
Abstract
The Taipei basin, located in northern Taiwan, is formed at the intersection of the Tanshui River valley (~30 km) and the Keelung River valley (~60 km). Summer is the dry season in northern Taiwan, but the maximum rainfall in the Taipei basin occurs during 15 June–31 August. The majority of summer rainfall in this basin is produced by afternoon thunderstorms. Thus, the water supply, air/land traffic, and pollution for this basin can be profoundly affected by interannual variations of thunderstorm days and rainfall. Because the mechanism for these interannual variations is still unknown, a systematic analysis is made of thunderstorm days and rainfall for the past two decades (1993–2013). These two variables are found to correlate opposite interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies over the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Niño-3.4 region. Occurrence days for afternoon thunderstorms and rainfall amounts in the Taipei basin double during the cold El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase relative to the warm phase. During the latter phase, a stronger cold/drier monsoon southwesterly flow caused by the Pacific–Japan Oscillation weakens the thunderstorm activity in the Taipei basin through the land–sea breeze. In contrast, the opposite condition occurs during the cold ENSO phase. The water vapor flux over the East/Southeast Asian monsoon region converges more toward Taiwan to maintain rainfall over the Taipei basin during the cold ENSO phase than during the warm ENSO phase.
Abstract
Environmental conditions for the roughly three million people living in the Taipei basin of Taiwan are greatly affected by the land–sea breeze and afternoon thunderstorm activities. A new perspective on the land–sea breeze life cycle and how it is affected by afternoon thunderstorm activity in the Taipei basin during the dry season is provided. During the summer monsoon break–revival phase, about 75% of rainfall in the Taipei basin is produced by afternoon thunderstorms triggered by sea-breeze interactions with the mountains to the south of this basin. Because the basic characteristics of the land–sea breeze and the changes it undergoes through the influence of afternoon thunderstorms have not been comprehensively analyzed/documented, a mini–field experiment was conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 to explore these aspects of the land–sea breeze in this basin. Thunderstorm rainfall is found to change not only the basin’s land–sea-breeze life cycle, but also its ventilation mechanism. On the nonthunderstorm day, the sea breeze supplies the open-sea fresh air for about 8 h during the daytime, but the land breeze persists on the thunderstorm day from afternoon to the next morning, acting to sweep polluted urban air out of the basin.
Abstract
Environmental conditions for the roughly three million people living in the Taipei basin of Taiwan are greatly affected by the land–sea breeze and afternoon thunderstorm activities. A new perspective on the land–sea breeze life cycle and how it is affected by afternoon thunderstorm activity in the Taipei basin during the dry season is provided. During the summer monsoon break–revival phase, about 75% of rainfall in the Taipei basin is produced by afternoon thunderstorms triggered by sea-breeze interactions with the mountains to the south of this basin. Because the basic characteristics of the land–sea breeze and the changes it undergoes through the influence of afternoon thunderstorms have not been comprehensively analyzed/documented, a mini–field experiment was conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 to explore these aspects of the land–sea breeze in this basin. Thunderstorm rainfall is found to change not only the basin’s land–sea-breeze life cycle, but also its ventilation mechanism. On the nonthunderstorm day, the sea breeze supplies the open-sea fresh air for about 8 h during the daytime, but the land breeze persists on the thunderstorm day from afternoon to the next morning, acting to sweep polluted urban air out of the basin.
Abstract
The potential thermal effects of traffic on road surface thermal energy balance under frost/snow cover conditions have been largely ignored in meteorological evaluations of road ice deposit conditions. Preliminary exploration of these effects, particularly for heavy traffic scenarios with calm wind conditions and an ambient temperature of 0°C, is provided in this study using a conceptual model. Observational data were used to constrain the model, and parameterizations were employed to estimate the various heat transfer processes involved. The results indicate that, for heavy traffic situations, as well as for stopped traffic at intersections, the traffic thermal flux contribution at the surface is noticeable in a wide range of possible frost/snow-covered road conditions. The sensitivity to variation in traffic density, speed, and the emissivity of vehicle radiative surfaces, among others, is evaluated. Simple quantification of these traffic thermal effects, which might be considered in operational meteorological model forecasting of icy road conditions, is offered.
Abstract
The potential thermal effects of traffic on road surface thermal energy balance under frost/snow cover conditions have been largely ignored in meteorological evaluations of road ice deposit conditions. Preliminary exploration of these effects, particularly for heavy traffic scenarios with calm wind conditions and an ambient temperature of 0°C, is provided in this study using a conceptual model. Observational data were used to constrain the model, and parameterizations were employed to estimate the various heat transfer processes involved. The results indicate that, for heavy traffic situations, as well as for stopped traffic at intersections, the traffic thermal flux contribution at the surface is noticeable in a wide range of possible frost/snow-covered road conditions. The sensitivity to variation in traffic density, speed, and the emissivity of vehicle radiative surfaces, among others, is evaluated. Simple quantification of these traffic thermal effects, which might be considered in operational meteorological model forecasting of icy road conditions, is offered.
