Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 1 of 1 items for :

  • Author or Editor: Fedor Mesinger x
  • Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP) x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Keith F. Brill and Fedor Mesinger

Abstract

Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.

Full access