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Christopher Davis and Frederick Carr

The major results and discussion items presented at the 1998 Workshop on mesoscale model verification, held 18–19 June in Boulder, Colorado, are summarized. This forum represents perhaps the first attempt to bring together the mesoscale modeling and statistical communities in an attempt to discuss the most challenging issues related to verifying mesoscale forecasts. Pervading discussion was the issue of uncertainty in predictions and observations and how to account for this when performing verification. This article discusses techniques to verify both deterministic and probabilistic predictions and provides recommendations for approaches to future endeavors in mesoscale model verification.

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Richard J. Reed, Robert M. White, Edward S. Epstein, Richard A. Craig, Harry Hamilton, Robert E. Livezey, David Houghton, and Frederick Carr
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Erik N. Rasmussen, Jerry M. Straka, Robert Davies-Jones, Charles A. Doswell III, Frederick H. Carr, Michael D. Eilts, and Donald R. MacGorman

This paper describes the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment planned for 1994 and 1995 to evaluate a set of hypotheses pertaining to tornadogenesis and tornado dynamics. Observations of state variables will be obtained from five mobile mesonet vehicles, four mobile ballooning laboratories, three movie photography teams, portable Doppler radar teams, two in situ tornado instruments deployment teams, and the T-28 and National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration P-3 aircraft. In addition, extensive use will be made of the new generation of observing systems, including the WSR-88D Doppler radars, demonstration wind profiler network, and National Weather Service rawinsondes.

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Walter F. Dabberdt, Thomas W. Schlatter, Frederick H. Carr, Elbert W. Joe Friday, David Jorgensen, Steven Koch, Maria Pirone, F. Martin Ralph, Juanzhen Sun, Patrick Welsh, James W. Wilson, and Xiaolei Zou

More than 120 scientists, engineers, administrators, and users met on 8–10 December 2003 in a workshop format to discuss the needs for enhanced three-dimensional mesoscale observing networks. Improved networks are seen as being critical to advancing numerical and empirical modeling for a variety of mesoscale applications, including severe weather warnings and forecasts, hydrology, air-quality forecasting, chemical emergency response, transportation safety, energy management, and others. The participants shared a clear and common vision for the observing requirements: existing two-dimensional mesoscale measurement networks do not provide observations of the type, frequency, and density that are required to optimize mesoscale prediction and nowcasts. To be viable, mesoscale observing networks must serve multiple applications, and the public, private, and academic sectors must all actively participate in their design and implementation, as well as in the creation and delivery of value-added products. The mesoscale measurement challenge can best be met by an integrated approach that considers all elements of an end-to-end solution—identifying end users and their needs, designing an optimal mix of observations, defining the balance between static and dynamic (targeted or adaptive) sampling strategies, establishing long-term test beds, and developing effective implementation strategies. Detailed recommendations are provided pertaining to nowcasting, numerical prediction and data assimilation, test beds, and implementation strategies.

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Xubin Zeng, Robert Atlas, Ronald J. Birk, Frederick H. Carr, Matthew J. Carrier, Lidia Cucurull, William H. Hooke, Eugenia Kalnay, Raghu Murtugudde, Derek J. Posselt, Joellen L. Russell, Daniel P. Tyndall, Robert A. Weller, and Fuqing Zhang

Abstract

The NOAA Science Advisory Board appointed a task force to prepare a white paper on the use of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Considering the importance and timeliness of this topic and based on this white paper, here we briefly review the use of OSSEs in the United States, discuss their values and limitations, and develop five recommendations for moving forward: national coordination of relevant research efforts, acceleration of OSSE development for Earth system models, consideration of the potential impact on OSSEs of deficiencies in the current data assimilation and prediction system, innovative and new applications of OSSEs, and extension of OSSEs to societal impacts. OSSEs can be complemented by calculations of forecast sensitivity to observations, which simultaneously evaluate the impact of different observation types in a forecast model system.

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David McLaughlin, David Pepyne, V. Chandrasekar, Brenda Philips, James Kurose, Michael Zink, Kelvin Droegemeier, Sandra Cruz-Pol, Francesc Junyent, Jerald Brotzge, David Westbrook, Nitin Bharadwaj, Yanting Wang, Eric Lyons, Kurt Hondl, Yuxiang Liu, Eric Knapp, Ming Xue, Anthony Hopf, Kevin Kloesel, Alfred DeFonzo, Pavlos Kollias, Keith Brewster, Robert Contreras, Brenda Dolan, Theodore Djaferis, Edin Insanic, Stephen Frasier, and Frederick Carr

Dense networks of short-range radars capable of mapping storms and detecting atmospheric hazards are described. Composed of small X-band (9.4 GHz) radars spaced tens of kilometers apart, these networks defeat the Earth curvature blockage that limits today s long-range weather radars and enables observing capabilities fundamentally beyond the operational state-of-the-art radars. These capabilities include multiple Doppler observations for mapping horizontal wind vectors, subkilometer spatial resolution, and rapid-update (tens of seconds) observations extending from the boundary layer up to the tops of storms. The small physical size and low-power design of these radars permits the consideration of commercial electronic manufacturing approaches and radar installation on rooftops, communications towers, and other infrastructure elements, leading to cost-effective network deployments. The networks can be architected in such a way that the sampling strategy dynamically responds to changing weather to simultaneously accommodate the data needs of multiple types of end users. Such networks have the potential to supplement, or replace, the physically large long-range civil infrastructure radars in use today.

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Greg M. McFarquhar, Elizabeth Smith, Elizabeth A. Pillar-Little, Keith Brewster, Phillip B. Chilson, Temple R. Lee, Sean Waugh, Nusrat Yussouf, Xuguang Wang, Ming Xue, Gijs de Boer, Jeremy A. Gibbs, Chris Fiebrich, Bruce Baker, Jerry Brotzge, Frederick Carr, Hui Christophersen, Martin Fengler, Philip Hall, Terry Hock, Adam Houston, Robert Huck, Jamey Jacob, Robert Palmer, Patricia K. Quinn, Melissa Wagner, Yan (Rockee) Zhang, and Darren Hawk
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