Search Results
Abstract
A field technique was developed to detect silver iodide seeding agent in snow samples. The technique consists of collecting snow during a snow storm, forming liquid drops by melting pellets made from the snow, and refreezing the drops. A histogram of frequency of drop freezing plotted against temperature indicates the presence or absence of silver iodide in snow.
Abstract
A field technique was developed to detect silver iodide seeding agent in snow samples. The technique consists of collecting snow during a snow storm, forming liquid drops by melting pellets made from the snow, and refreezing the drops. A histogram of frequency of drop freezing plotted against temperature indicates the presence or absence of silver iodide in snow.
Abstract
Studies of small-scale variability of hailfall parameters are being pursued using fine-scale networks of passive hail sensors of various designs. These studies have revealed the great variability which exists in objective hail parameters over very short distances. The objective of the fine-scale measurements is to eventually produce a statistical hailstreak model with which to assess the uncertainty produced by making areal hail estimates with coarse networks as part of hail prevention experiments. An example of such an assessment for a single hailstreak crop-loss pattern illustrates the problem and demonstrates that, for the particular damage pattern used, a square grid with 1 mi spacing would estimate the areal damage within 25% accuracy 80% of the time.
Abstract
Studies of small-scale variability of hailfall parameters are being pursued using fine-scale networks of passive hail sensors of various designs. These studies have revealed the great variability which exists in objective hail parameters over very short distances. The objective of the fine-scale measurements is to eventually produce a statistical hailstreak model with which to assess the uncertainty produced by making areal hail estimates with coarse networks as part of hail prevention experiments. An example of such an assessment for a single hailstreak crop-loss pattern illustrates the problem and demonstrates that, for the particular damage pattern used, a square grid with 1 mi spacing would estimate the areal damage within 25% accuracy 80% of the time.
Abstract
Surface winds which accompany the fall of hail have a profound effect on crop damage. Quantitative estimates of the horizontal and total flux of hailstone kinetic energy can be made with simple theoretical considerations using data obtained from a hailcube. A hailcube is a box with aluminum foil wrapped styrofoam pads on four sides and the top. The analytical procedure for obtaining the energy estimates from cubes is described. Results show that the total kinetic energy, which includes the effect of the wind speed, can be up to five times greater than the vertical kinetic energy—the energy imparted without the effect of the wind.
Abstract
Surface winds which accompany the fall of hail have a profound effect on crop damage. Quantitative estimates of the horizontal and total flux of hailstone kinetic energy can be made with simple theoretical considerations using data obtained from a hailcube. A hailcube is a box with aluminum foil wrapped styrofoam pads on four sides and the top. The analytical procedure for obtaining the energy estimates from cubes is described. Results show that the total kinetic energy, which includes the effect of the wind speed, can be up to five times greater than the vertical kinetic energy—the energy imparted without the effect of the wind.
Abstract
A detailed analysis is made of the environmental conditions existing on each of the declared hail days during the randomized seeding experiment. From the many soundings available each day, the one most representative of the near-storm environment is carefully selected. This sounding is then used to compute several parameters known to influence hailfall. It is found that two parameters, both indicative of the thermodynamic instability, have a more instable mean value on the seed days than on the control days that in one case is statistically significant at the 10% level. Correcting for this draw would result in reducing the actual ratios of seed to control hail mass found in the primary statistical evaluation of the experiment. However, the reduction would not be sufficient in relation to the very wide 90% confidence limits to affect the statistical conclusions that the ratios were not significantly different from 1.0.
An analysis of the sequences of declared hail days showed that, in spite of the careful experimental design, the random selection process produced an actual partitioning of sequence starts into seed or control such that a sequence this extreme, or more extreme, had a chance of only 3 in 100 of occurring. However, it is not likely that this unexpected draw affected the evaluation of the experiment in any significant way, since it is taken care of indirectly in the analyses of the environmental parameters.
Abstract
A detailed analysis is made of the environmental conditions existing on each of the declared hail days during the randomized seeding experiment. From the many soundings available each day, the one most representative of the near-storm environment is carefully selected. This sounding is then used to compute several parameters known to influence hailfall. It is found that two parameters, both indicative of the thermodynamic instability, have a more instable mean value on the seed days than on the control days that in one case is statistically significant at the 10% level. Correcting for this draw would result in reducing the actual ratios of seed to control hail mass found in the primary statistical evaluation of the experiment. However, the reduction would not be sufficient in relation to the very wide 90% confidence limits to affect the statistical conclusions that the ratios were not significantly different from 1.0.
An analysis of the sequences of declared hail days showed that, in spite of the careful experimental design, the random selection process produced an actual partitioning of sequence starts into seed or control such that a sequence this extreme, or more extreme, had a chance of only 3 in 100 of occurring. However, it is not likely that this unexpected draw affected the evaluation of the experiment in any significant way, since it is taken care of indirectly in the analyses of the environmental parameters.
Abstract
A description is given of a broad program to Design and Experiment to Suppress Hail (DESH) in Illinois. This program draws on results acquired during 17 years of extensive hail research in Illinois. There are two principal tasks to DESH: the determination of the desirability and the feasibility of hail suppression experimentation in Illinois and the Midwest. Socio-economic studies have led to an affirmative conclusion on the desirability issues. The feasibility decision appears affirmative and rests on certain key results. Airborne cloud base seeding in the humid midwestern environment is possible but will be more difficult and expensive than in less humid areas. Radar will be needed for short-term forecasting, aircraft operations, identification of potential hailstorms, and in the evaluation of seeding effectiveness. Weather forecasting by objective techniques will be valuable in both operations and evaluation, and adequate objective techniques have been largely developed. The overall shape of the proposed experiment is now clear. It will consist of an impact monitoring effort, which will make assessments of societal, environmental and economic impacts and communicate with the public; an operational effort to execute the experiment according to the final detailed design; and an evaluation effort combining a variety of surface, synoptic and radar data to assess the efficacy of the chosen seeding technique.
Abstract
A description is given of a broad program to Design and Experiment to Suppress Hail (DESH) in Illinois. This program draws on results acquired during 17 years of extensive hail research in Illinois. There are two principal tasks to DESH: the determination of the desirability and the feasibility of hail suppression experimentation in Illinois and the Midwest. Socio-economic studies have led to an affirmative conclusion on the desirability issues. The feasibility decision appears affirmative and rests on certain key results. Airborne cloud base seeding in the humid midwestern environment is possible but will be more difficult and expensive than in less humid areas. Radar will be needed for short-term forecasting, aircraft operations, identification of potential hailstorms, and in the evaluation of seeding effectiveness. Weather forecasting by objective techniques will be valuable in both operations and evaluation, and adequate objective techniques have been largely developed. The overall shape of the proposed experiment is now clear. It will consist of an impact monitoring effort, which will make assessments of societal, environmental and economic impacts and communicate with the public; an operational effort to execute the experiment according to the final detailed design; and an evaluation effort combining a variety of surface, synoptic and radar data to assess the efficacy of the chosen seeding technique.
