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GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

Evidence is presented that precipitation variations in the United States are related to the solar and lunar tidal forces. The results of the statistical investigation are consistent with a mathematical model that shows how a small periodic influence can be of possible importance for the timing of an event such as the initiation of precipitation.

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GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

No Abstract Available.

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Glenn W. Brier

Abstract

Recent investigations indicate that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric winds may be related to variations in the tropospheric circulation in middle and high latitudes. Although the QBO was noticed years ago in a number of worldwide atmospheric phenomena, it is still not well understood. A logical question arises as to whether the oscillation might be a result of the annual forcing by the solar heating, since it is well known that in some nonlinear systems subharmonic oscillations can be produced of order one-half the frequency of the exciting force. A conceptual model is presented to show how a two-year oscillation could be produced by a negative feedback process acting on a two-state system, i.e., winter and summer states. Even for a relatively weak biennial oscillation with stochastic elements involved, the results show that rather strong links must exist in the chain or feedback loop, indicating potential predictability for periods of six months or more. Support for the concept is provided by the analysis of monthly mean observations of the 50 mb zonal winds at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) f man September 1950 to October 1976. It is clear that the transitions from an easterly to westerly mode (and vice versa) and the duration of a particular mode are closely related to the annual cycle.

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GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

No Abstract Available.

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Marion W. Haurwitz
and
Glenn W. Brier

Abstract

Superposed epoch analyses, based on solar sector boundary crossings as key times and the Vorticity Area Index as the response variable, are tested for significance using both parametric and randomization techniques. We conclude from a comparison of these techniques that the randomization procedure leads to markedly different results from those obtained from parametric tests. In particular, the results are strongly affected by the modest skewness of the Vorticity Area Index distribution.

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DWIGHT B. KLINE
and
GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

Daily freezing nuclei observations taken in the Washington, D. C., area during the first 3 months of 1958 showed large fluctuations in time relative to probable observational uncertainties. Anomalous values were detected around the January dates predicted by the meteoritic dust hypothesis. However, subsequent “peaks” do not appear to be associable with any known major meteor streams. A composite analysis of the dates of dominant peaks in similar observations a t a number of other locations since 1954 tends to confirm the existence of singularities in January which are statistically highly significant.

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DWIGHT B. KLINE
and
GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

A brief description is given of a new refrigerated expansion chamber apparatus based on an Australian C.S.I.R.O. design for measuring ice nuclei concentrations. The compatibility of results between five instruments of similar construction, a comparison of data obtained with a simple version of the mixing chamber method, and homogeneity of rapid expansion measurements at sites 8 and 100 miles apart are investigated. Except for uncertainties regarding the extrapolation of results to natural clouds, all indications are that, with care, the nucleation level in the atmosphere is capable of objective, compatible measurement with standardized equipment. However, a series of measurements verified the existence of significant differences between the rapid expansion and mixing chamber techniques. Both methods reflected similar trends during appreciable increases or decreases in nucleation activity. A surprisingly uniform geographical distribution of aerosols responsible for ice crystal nucleation is suggested in some of the results.

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Paul W. Mielke Jr.
,
Kenneth J. Berry
, and
Glenn W. Brier

Abstract

This paper considers the examination of possible differences in monthly sea-level pressure patterns, The satisfactory examination of such differences requires appropriate multi-response parametric methods based on unknown multivariate distributions (i.e., an appropriate parametric technique is probably non-existent). In order to avoid the likely insurmountable difficulties involving parametric methods, the application of multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) is suggested as an appropriate approach for the examination of such differences.

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WILLIAM L. KISER
,
THOMAS H. CARPENTER
, and
GLENN W. BRIER

Abstract

Twelve years of hourly surface observations from Wake Island are analyzed to isolate the atmospheric tides and to study possible relations between the tides and weather over a very small land mass. In addition to determining the solar diurnal and the solar semidiurnal variation of temperature and pressure, the study demonstrates that the lunar semidiurnal pressure oscillation can be satisfactorily determined while the lunar semidiurnal temperature variation cannot be isolated with 12 years of hourly observations. The frequency of occurrence of precipitation shows only a slight suggestion of a lunar tidal period; however, the lunar semidiurnal precipitation component has the same relation to the lunar semidiurnal pressure wave as the solar semidiurnal precipitation wave has to the solar semidiurnal pressure wave. There is some evidence for a solar semidiurnal variation of cloudiness and a relationship between cloudiness and the semidiurnal pressure wave rather than between cloudiness and the predominantly diurnal temperature wave. A pronounced observational bias in sky cover associated with the moon's position makes it impossible to conduct any valid study of the relationship between sky cover and the lunar tidal period.

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