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- Author or Editor: Greg J. Holland x
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Abstract
Wind profiler and serial sounding observations extending to the upper troposphere are used to analyze Tropical Storm Flo (1990) as it passed within 115 km of the experimental site on Saipan. These data resolve details of the circulation and precipitation structure of the storm and its rainbands. Analysis of principal and secondary rainbands in outer radii indicate that there are considerable similarities with previous studies. Although the bands contained distinct precipitation maxima, there is no evidence of active convection and the mean structure is similar to that observed in the stratiform regions of squall lines. The vertical circulations in the rainbands are weak and complex, but distinct azimuthal wind maxima are observed that have maxima of relative vorticity and inertial stability on the inner edge. The divergence fields for the entire analysis period are strongly coherent and are indicative of vertically propagating gravity waves generated in the near inertially neutral outflow layer. The analysis thus demonstrates the usefulness of wind profilers for tropical cyclone observations.
Abstract
Wind profiler and serial sounding observations extending to the upper troposphere are used to analyze Tropical Storm Flo (1990) as it passed within 115 km of the experimental site on Saipan. These data resolve details of the circulation and precipitation structure of the storm and its rainbands. Analysis of principal and secondary rainbands in outer radii indicate that there are considerable similarities with previous studies. Although the bands contained distinct precipitation maxima, there is no evidence of active convection and the mean structure is similar to that observed in the stratiform regions of squall lines. The vertical circulations in the rainbands are weak and complex, but distinct azimuthal wind maxima are observed that have maxima of relative vorticity and inertial stability on the inner edge. The divergence fields for the entire analysis period are strongly coherent and are indicative of vertically propagating gravity waves generated in the near inertially neutral outflow layer. The analysis thus demonstrates the usefulness of wind profilers for tropical cyclone observations.
Abstract
The depth-averaged, numerical storm-surge model developed by Hubbert et al. (1990) has been configured to provide a stand-alone system to forecast tropical cyclone storm surges. The atmospheric surface pressure and surface winds are derived from the analytical-empirical model of Holland (1980) and require only cyclone positions, central pressures, and radii of maximum winds. The model has been adapted to run on personal computers in a few minutes so that multiple forecast scenarios can be tested in a forecast office in real time.
The storm surge model was tested in hindcast mode on four Australian tropical cyclones. For these case studies the model predicted the sea surface elevations and arrival times of surge peaks accurately, with typical elevation errors of 0.1 to 0.2 m and arrival time errors of no more than 1 h. Second order effects, such as coastally-trapped waves, were also well simulated. The model is now being used by the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC's) for operational forecasting. It will also be released as part of a tropical cyclone workstation that has recently been recommended for use by WMO member nations.
Abstract
The depth-averaged, numerical storm-surge model developed by Hubbert et al. (1990) has been configured to provide a stand-alone system to forecast tropical cyclone storm surges. The atmospheric surface pressure and surface winds are derived from the analytical-empirical model of Holland (1980) and require only cyclone positions, central pressures, and radii of maximum winds. The model has been adapted to run on personal computers in a few minutes so that multiple forecast scenarios can be tested in a forecast office in real time.
The storm surge model was tested in hindcast mode on four Australian tropical cyclones. For these case studies the model predicted the sea surface elevations and arrival times of surge peaks accurately, with typical elevation errors of 0.1 to 0.2 m and arrival time errors of no more than 1 h. Second order effects, such as coastally-trapped waves, were also well simulated. The model is now being used by the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC's) for operational forecasting. It will also be released as part of a tropical cyclone workstation that has recently been recommended for use by WMO member nations.
Abstract
The design concept and operational trial of a fully interactive analysis and numerical forecast system for tropical-cyclone motion are described. The design concept emphasizes an interactive system in which forecasters can test various scenarios objectively, rather than having to subjectively decide between conflicting forecasts from standardized techniques. The system is designed for use on a personal computer, or workstation, located on the forecast bench. A choice of a Barnes or statistical interpolation scheme is provided to analyze raw or bogus observations at any atmospheric level or layer mean selected by the forecaster. The track forecast is then made by integration of a nondivergent barotropic model.
An operational trial during the 1990 tropical-cyclone field experiments in the western north Pacific Ocean indicated that the system can be used very effectively in real time. A series of case-study examples is presented.
Abstract
The design concept and operational trial of a fully interactive analysis and numerical forecast system for tropical-cyclone motion are described. The design concept emphasizes an interactive system in which forecasters can test various scenarios objectively, rather than having to subjectively decide between conflicting forecasts from standardized techniques. The system is designed for use on a personal computer, or workstation, located on the forecast bench. A choice of a Barnes or statistical interpolation scheme is provided to analyze raw or bogus observations at any atmospheric level or layer mean selected by the forecaster. The track forecast is then made by integration of a nondivergent barotropic model.
An operational trial during the 1990 tropical-cyclone field experiments in the western north Pacific Ocean indicated that the system can be used very effectively in real time. A series of case-study examples is presented.
