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Abstract
During the years 1977–82 a randomized single area hail suppression experiment was conducted in Central Switzerland, testing the Soviet concept of beneficial competition. For 37 seed and 50 no-seed days, rainfall data, both in and outside of the target area, have been analyzed for a possible seeding effect. “Moving grid” analyses within a range of 100 km of the seeding center showed no statistical evidence of a seeding effect for 24 h-values. For the experimental unit (9 h), an area “upwind” (with respect to the mean wind direction) of the target showed a statistically significant increase in rainfall of 118% on seed days, although no “upwind” effect should be expected. The seed ensemble in that area is dominated by four days with large rainfall amounts. Hence it must be concluded that, despite randomization, the effect is due to natural variability. Other effects in the target or “downwind” must likewise be regarded as random. Smaller time intervals have also been tested, but the results are inconclusive.
Abstract
During the years 1977–82 a randomized single area hail suppression experiment was conducted in Central Switzerland, testing the Soviet concept of beneficial competition. For 37 seed and 50 no-seed days, rainfall data, both in and outside of the target area, have been analyzed for a possible seeding effect. “Moving grid” analyses within a range of 100 km of the seeding center showed no statistical evidence of a seeding effect for 24 h-values. For the experimental unit (9 h), an area “upwind” (with respect to the mean wind direction) of the target showed a statistically significant increase in rainfall of 118% on seed days, although no “upwind” effect should be expected. The seed ensemble in that area is dominated by four days with large rainfall amounts. Hence it must be concluded that, despite randomization, the effect is due to natural variability. Other effects in the target or “downwind” must likewise be regarded as random. Smaller time intervals have also been tested, but the results are inconclusive.
Abstract
Ground-and radar-measured patterns of hail kinetic energy from eight hailstorms have been compared. The radar patterns were shifted horizontally in such a way that the correlation coefficient between the ground and radar data reaches a maximum. The correlation coefficients increased from .7 (no shift) to .9 (optimal shift) on average. The “optimal” shift vector is in good agreement with conceptual models about the kinematics of the storms.
The influence of microphysical effects and of the storm dynamics on the agreement between the hailpad-and radar-measured quantities is discussed in detail. The melting of hailstones and the shape of hailstone spectra have been considered in additional analyses, and the impact of these effects on the ground and radar measurements could be isolated. The results imply that the melting of hailstones is more pronounced in supercell storms than in single-cell storms or in multicell storms.
Abstract
Ground-and radar-measured patterns of hail kinetic energy from eight hailstorms have been compared. The radar patterns were shifted horizontally in such a way that the correlation coefficient between the ground and radar data reaches a maximum. The correlation coefficients increased from .7 (no shift) to .9 (optimal shift) on average. The “optimal” shift vector is in good agreement with conceptual models about the kinematics of the storms.
The influence of microphysical effects and of the storm dynamics on the agreement between the hailpad-and radar-measured quantities is discussed in detail. The melting of hailstones and the shape of hailstone spectra have been considered in additional analyses, and the impact of these effects on the ground and radar measurements could be isolated. The results imply that the melting of hailstones is more pronounced in supercell storms than in single-cell storms or in multicell storms.
Abstract
The structures of severe mesoscale precipitation systems (MPS) in Switzerland have been classified by analyzing radar images obtained over a 5-yr period. Severe MPSs were defined to be those producing most of the damage on days on which at least 5 (out of 2400) communities reported water and/or at least 20 reported hail damage. Of 94 MPSs selected, 82 had radar reflectivity of 47 dBZ or greater and were referred to as mesoscale convective systems (MCS). The 12 remaining MPSs consisted of less intense, long-lasting, and widespread frontal or orographic rainfall.
Subclasses of MCSs were defined according to their internal arrangements of cell complexes (CC). A CC was defined as an echo contour of 40 dBZ surrounding echo maxima of at least 47 dBZ. Four general categories of organization were found: isolated CC, a group of CCs, and a broken or continuous line of CCs. All categories can be purely convective at the mature stage, or the CCs may be juxtaposed with a stratiform precipitation area, usually behind moving convection. The stratiform region often developed as a decaying convective area. These categories were examined in relation to sounding, surface mesonet, synoptic weather type, and severe weather information.
In 26 cases, the MCS had “leading line-trailing stratiform” structure. These MCSs were graded according to a classification scheme previously used to characterize spring rainstorms in Oklahoma. Only moderately and weakly classifiable storm systems occurred in Switzerland. The mountain barriers apparently interfered with the airflow such that MCSs were prevented from having enough time and space to develop to a higher degree of organization as is possible over the relatively flat terrain of Oklahoma. In addition, the instability and the wind shear in the Swiss storm environment was found to be weaker.
Abstract
The structures of severe mesoscale precipitation systems (MPS) in Switzerland have been classified by analyzing radar images obtained over a 5-yr period. Severe MPSs were defined to be those producing most of the damage on days on which at least 5 (out of 2400) communities reported water and/or at least 20 reported hail damage. Of 94 MPSs selected, 82 had radar reflectivity of 47 dBZ or greater and were referred to as mesoscale convective systems (MCS). The 12 remaining MPSs consisted of less intense, long-lasting, and widespread frontal or orographic rainfall.
Subclasses of MCSs were defined according to their internal arrangements of cell complexes (CC). A CC was defined as an echo contour of 40 dBZ surrounding echo maxima of at least 47 dBZ. Four general categories of organization were found: isolated CC, a group of CCs, and a broken or continuous line of CCs. All categories can be purely convective at the mature stage, or the CCs may be juxtaposed with a stratiform precipitation area, usually behind moving convection. The stratiform region often developed as a decaying convective area. These categories were examined in relation to sounding, surface mesonet, synoptic weather type, and severe weather information.
In 26 cases, the MCS had “leading line-trailing stratiform” structure. These MCSs were graded according to a classification scheme previously used to characterize spring rainstorms in Oklahoma. Only moderately and weakly classifiable storm systems occurred in Switzerland. The mountain barriers apparently interfered with the airflow such that MCSs were prevented from having enough time and space to develop to a higher degree of organization as is possible over the relatively flat terrain of Oklahoma. In addition, the instability and the wind shear in the Swiss storm environment was found to be weaker.
Abstract
The preconvective environment on thunderstorm days in Switzerland north of the Alps has been investigated during a 5-yr period (1985–89). Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters calculated from the radiosounding in Payerne (started at 0000 and 1200 UTC) were used to characterize the initiation of convection. The best parameters were evaluated by using three methods: 1) skill scores, 2) probability distributions, and 3) mean temperature soundings and hodographs. For the decision whether a thunderstorm day was expected or not, the best results were obtained at 0000 UTC with the original Showalter index and at 1200 UTC with the SWEAT index. In addition, to decide whether an isolated or widespread thunderstorm day was expected, the most successful parameter was the modified CAPECCL. Furthermore, the best thermodynamic and kinematic parameters were combined to create new thunderstorm indices, similar to the calculations of the SWEAT index in the United States. The new thunderstorm indices especially designed for northern Switzerland were jointly called the “SWISS index” (combined stability and wind shear index for thunderstorms in Switzerland). All of the traditional and new indices were verified with independent data from 3 yr (1990, 1992, and 1993), showing the best results for the new combined indices.
Abstract
The preconvective environment on thunderstorm days in Switzerland north of the Alps has been investigated during a 5-yr period (1985–89). Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters calculated from the radiosounding in Payerne (started at 0000 and 1200 UTC) were used to characterize the initiation of convection. The best parameters were evaluated by using three methods: 1) skill scores, 2) probability distributions, and 3) mean temperature soundings and hodographs. For the decision whether a thunderstorm day was expected or not, the best results were obtained at 0000 UTC with the original Showalter index and at 1200 UTC with the SWEAT index. In addition, to decide whether an isolated or widespread thunderstorm day was expected, the most successful parameter was the modified CAPECCL. Furthermore, the best thermodynamic and kinematic parameters were combined to create new thunderstorm indices, similar to the calculations of the SWEAT index in the United States. The new thunderstorm indices especially designed for northern Switzerland were jointly called the “SWISS index” (combined stability and wind shear index for thunderstorms in Switzerland). All of the traditional and new indices were verified with independent data from 3 yr (1990, 1992, and 1993), showing the best results for the new combined indices.
Abstract
In the central region of Switzerland, lying between the Jura Mountains to the north and the Alps to the south, severe hailstorms are a common summertime phenomenon. Eight years of data on these hailstorms show that they are nearly equally divided between left- and right-moving storms. Depending on the exact environmental conditions, the severe hailstorms consist variously of left- or right-moving ordinary-cell storms, left- or right-moving supercell storms, and left-moving storms of an intermediary type (i.e., supercellular in some but not all respects). The left movers of the intermediary type sometimes exhibit a cyclonically rotating echo appendage on the right-rear flank of the storm. This appendage to the left mover resembles a book echo associated with a classic supercell. It is dubbed a false hook, since it has a dynamical configuration substantially different from that of a classic supercell. This difference is demonstrated by the fact that the false hook appears on the wrong side of the left mover for it to be a mirror image of a classic right-moving supercell.
Sounding data show that at bulk Richardson numbers less than 30–50, the right-moving severe hailstorms in central Switzerland tend to be stronger and are more likely to be supercellular, though they are almost never tornadic. The hodograph of the wind in the environment of the storms shows that the winds are about one-half to two-thirds the strength of the winds associated with tornadic storms over the central United States. The wind-shear vector turns generally clockwise with increasing height through the lowest 5–6 km, with a maximum south-westerly wind at about the 3-km level. On days when left-moving storms occur, the shear vector in the lowest 2–3 km of the generally clockwise-turning layer tends to exhibit a slight counterclockwise turning with height.
Model calculations have been carried out for a day on which slight counterclockwise shear was present in the lowest 2–3 km and on which both a right-moving supercell and a left-moving false-hook storm occurred. In addition to rawinsonde data, observations were obtained by three radars, surface stations, and a hailpad network. The model produces splitting storms. The right-and left-moving model storms match the observed storms quite well. The left-hook mover was a false-hook storm, since the separate, cyclonically rotating updraft in the false-hook region does not separate from the left-moving storm. The false-hook appendage is found to consist of updraft and precipitation advected westward and southward in the cyclonically rotating south near flank of the storm. It bounds a cyclonically rotating downdraft on the south side of the storm. When the model simulation is repeated after modifying the environment wind hodograph by reversing the sense of the turning of the shear vector at low levels, so that the environment wind-shear vector turned in the clockwise sense with increasing height throughout the entire lowest 5–6 km, the second split of the left mover occurs much sooner. Consequently, the southern echo appendage is only a transitory feature, and a long-lived false-hook storm is not maintained.
The model simulations indicate that the basic characteristics of thunderstorms in central Switzerland can be realistically reproduced in a numerical model with a flat lower boundary. Hence, the environmental wind and thermodynamic stratification are inferred to be the primary factors determining storm structure. However, the environment supports multiple storm structures, and those storm modes selected by nature at a specific time and location may be determined by very subtle local effects, such as whether the low-level wind hodograph exhibits a slight clockwise or counterclockwise perturbation. Such local variability of the winds is likely related, directly or indirectly, to orography. Such variability is evidently random, though, resulting in the even climatological distribution between left- and right-moving storms.
Abstract
In the central region of Switzerland, lying between the Jura Mountains to the north and the Alps to the south, severe hailstorms are a common summertime phenomenon. Eight years of data on these hailstorms show that they are nearly equally divided between left- and right-moving storms. Depending on the exact environmental conditions, the severe hailstorms consist variously of left- or right-moving ordinary-cell storms, left- or right-moving supercell storms, and left-moving storms of an intermediary type (i.e., supercellular in some but not all respects). The left movers of the intermediary type sometimes exhibit a cyclonically rotating echo appendage on the right-rear flank of the storm. This appendage to the left mover resembles a book echo associated with a classic supercell. It is dubbed a false hook, since it has a dynamical configuration substantially different from that of a classic supercell. This difference is demonstrated by the fact that the false hook appears on the wrong side of the left mover for it to be a mirror image of a classic right-moving supercell.
Sounding data show that at bulk Richardson numbers less than 30–50, the right-moving severe hailstorms in central Switzerland tend to be stronger and are more likely to be supercellular, though they are almost never tornadic. The hodograph of the wind in the environment of the storms shows that the winds are about one-half to two-thirds the strength of the winds associated with tornadic storms over the central United States. The wind-shear vector turns generally clockwise with increasing height through the lowest 5–6 km, with a maximum south-westerly wind at about the 3-km level. On days when left-moving storms occur, the shear vector in the lowest 2–3 km of the generally clockwise-turning layer tends to exhibit a slight counterclockwise turning with height.
Model calculations have been carried out for a day on which slight counterclockwise shear was present in the lowest 2–3 km and on which both a right-moving supercell and a left-moving false-hook storm occurred. In addition to rawinsonde data, observations were obtained by three radars, surface stations, and a hailpad network. The model produces splitting storms. The right-and left-moving model storms match the observed storms quite well. The left-hook mover was a false-hook storm, since the separate, cyclonically rotating updraft in the false-hook region does not separate from the left-moving storm. The false-hook appendage is found to consist of updraft and precipitation advected westward and southward in the cyclonically rotating south near flank of the storm. It bounds a cyclonically rotating downdraft on the south side of the storm. When the model simulation is repeated after modifying the environment wind hodograph by reversing the sense of the turning of the shear vector at low levels, so that the environment wind-shear vector turned in the clockwise sense with increasing height throughout the entire lowest 5–6 km, the second split of the left mover occurs much sooner. Consequently, the southern echo appendage is only a transitory feature, and a long-lived false-hook storm is not maintained.
The model simulations indicate that the basic characteristics of thunderstorms in central Switzerland can be realistically reproduced in a numerical model with a flat lower boundary. Hence, the environmental wind and thermodynamic stratification are inferred to be the primary factors determining storm structure. However, the environment supports multiple storm structures, and those storm modes selected by nature at a specific time and location may be determined by very subtle local effects, such as whether the low-level wind hodograph exhibits a slight clockwise or counterclockwise perturbation. Such local variability of the winds is likely related, directly or indirectly, to orography. Such variability is evidently random, though, resulting in the even climatological distribution between left- and right-moving storms.
Abstract
The main results of a randomized hail suppression experiment, Grossversuch IV, are presented in this paper. Grossversuch IV tested the “Soviet” hail prevention method during five years (1977–81). The field experiment took place in central Switzerland with the participation of research groups from France, Italy and Switzerland.
A very dense hailpad network (330 hailpads over 1300 km2) and a carefully calibrated 10-cm radar were used to measure in two independent ways the hail kinetic energy of seeded and unseeded hail cells. The total sample included 216 cells. The main result of the confirmatory as well as most of the exploratory analyses is that there is no statistically significant difference between seeded and unseeded hail cells. A detailed discussion of the reliability of the measurements, tests and methods is given together with a discussion about possibilities of future evaluations of the Grossversuch IV data and other cloud seeding experiments.
Abstract
The main results of a randomized hail suppression experiment, Grossversuch IV, are presented in this paper. Grossversuch IV tested the “Soviet” hail prevention method during five years (1977–81). The field experiment took place in central Switzerland with the participation of research groups from France, Italy and Switzerland.
A very dense hailpad network (330 hailpads over 1300 km2) and a carefully calibrated 10-cm radar were used to measure in two independent ways the hail kinetic energy of seeded and unseeded hail cells. The total sample included 216 cells. The main result of the confirmatory as well as most of the exploratory analyses is that there is no statistically significant difference between seeded and unseeded hail cells. A detailed discussion of the reliability of the measurements, tests and methods is given together with a discussion about possibilities of future evaluations of the Grossversuch IV data and other cloud seeding experiments.
