Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 1 of 1 items for :

  • Author or Editor: H. Waelbroeck x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
H. Waelbroeck

Abstract

An 11-year dataset from the tropical weather station of Tlaxcala, Mexico, is examined. It is found that mutual information drops quickly with the delay, to a positive value that relaxes to zero with a timescale of 20 days. The mutual dependence of the observables is also examined and it is concluded that the dataset gives the equivalent of eight variables per day, known to a precision of 2%. It is determined that the effective dimension of the attractor is D eff ≈ 11.7 at the scale 3.5% < R/R max < 8%. Evidence is found that the effective dimension increases as R/R max → 0, supporting a conjecture by Lorenz that the climate system may consist of a large number of weakly coupled subsystems, some of which have low-dimensional attractors. A local reconstruction of the dynamics in phase space is performed; the short-term predictability is modest and agrees with theoretical estimates. Useful skill in predictions of 10-day rainfall accumulation anomalies reflects the persistence of weather patterns, which follow the 20-day decay rate of the mutual information.

Full access