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Kathy Pegion, Ben P. Kirtman, Emily Becker, Dan C. Collins, Emerson LaJoie, Robert Burgman, Ray Bell, Timothy DelSole, Dughong Min, Yuejian Zhu, Wei Li, Eric Sinsky, Hong Guan, Jon Gottschalck, E. Joseph Metzger, Neil P Barton, Deepthi Achuthavarier, Jelena Marshak, Randal D. Koster, Hai Lin, Normand Gagnon, Michael Bell, Michael K. Tippett, Andrew W. Robertson, Shan Sun, Stanley G. Benjamin, Benjamin W. Green, Rainer Bleck, and Hyemi Kim

Abstract

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.

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