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Abstract
The complicated wind regimes in straits which develop in response to difFerent large-scale pressure fields are investigated by scale analysis of the equations of motion. Adjustment of the mass and motion fields in straits O(lOs km) in width is governed by four nondimensional numbers: separate along- and cross-strait Rossby numbers, a strait drag coefficient, and a stratification parameter, which relates the internal Rossby radius of deformation to the width of the strait. The wind field is in approximate geostrophic balance with an imposed cross-channel pressure gradient. An along-channel pressure gradient is primarily balanced by ageostrophic acceleration of the wind field down the axis of the strait (the gap wind). Vertical motion and the accompanying horizontal divergence in the near-surface wind field can be large even for moderately stable stratification; as a consequence, there may be particularly abrupt transitions of the surface wind field at the exits of straits, where there is a rapid change of the scaling parameters to match coastal conditions.
The scale analysis also applies to open coasts with the Rossby radius of deformation replacing the width of the strait as the offshore length scale. For the mountainous coasts along Alaska, Canada and Norway, a typical Rossby radius is 0(80 km); within this distance an alongshore pressure gradient Will be principally balanced by the ageostrophic terms in the momentum equation. Since the coastal Rossby radius is smaller than the grid size of present numerical weather prediction models, geostrophic adjustment is not correctly modeled for landfalling storms along mountainous coasts.
Abstract
The complicated wind regimes in straits which develop in response to difFerent large-scale pressure fields are investigated by scale analysis of the equations of motion. Adjustment of the mass and motion fields in straits O(lOs km) in width is governed by four nondimensional numbers: separate along- and cross-strait Rossby numbers, a strait drag coefficient, and a stratification parameter, which relates the internal Rossby radius of deformation to the width of the strait. The wind field is in approximate geostrophic balance with an imposed cross-channel pressure gradient. An along-channel pressure gradient is primarily balanced by ageostrophic acceleration of the wind field down the axis of the strait (the gap wind). Vertical motion and the accompanying horizontal divergence in the near-surface wind field can be large even for moderately stable stratification; as a consequence, there may be particularly abrupt transitions of the surface wind field at the exits of straits, where there is a rapid change of the scaling parameters to match coastal conditions.
The scale analysis also applies to open coasts with the Rossby radius of deformation replacing the width of the strait as the offshore length scale. For the mountainous coasts along Alaska, Canada and Norway, a typical Rossby radius is 0(80 km); within this distance an alongshore pressure gradient Will be principally balanced by the ageostrophic terms in the momentum equation. Since the coastal Rossby radius is smaller than the grid size of present numerical weather prediction models, geostrophic adjustment is not correctly modeled for landfalling storms along mountainous coasts.
Abstract
The operational NOAA categorical vessel icing algorithm is evaluated with regard to advances in understanding of the icing process and forecasting experience. When sea temperatures are <2–3°C above the saltwater freezing point there is the likelihood of supercooling of the spray during its trajectory and extreme ice accretion on topside structures. The NOAA algorithm shows excellent results when compared to a new cold-water dataset from the Labrador Sea (mean sea temperature of −13°C), even though the algorithm was developed from an Alaskan dataset with a mean sea temperature of 3.6°C. A rederived algorithm from the combined dataset is nearly identical to the operational algorithm. The influence of sea temperature in the NOAA model is consistent with the supercooling hypothesis and an additional icing category of extreme is recommended for the algorithm. Severe icing in the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Sea of Japan is primarily caused by extreme cold-air advection, while low sea temperatures contribute to severe icing in the Labrador Sea, Denmark Strait, and Barents Sea. Indirect verification showed that NOAA provided excellent forecasts to over 140 fishing vessels in Alaskan waters during late January 1989, the worst icing episode of the decade. This case suggests that current-generation atmospheric models are capable of providing reliable 36-h forecasts of cold-air advection, and thus indicating regions of heavy icing. A wave height/wind speed threshold for the onset of topside icing is 5 m s−1 for a 15-m vessel, 10 m s−1 for a 50-m trawler and 15 m s−1 for a 100-m vessel, developed from seakeeping theory. These wind speeds are exceeded 83%, 47% and 15%, respectively, during February in the Bering Sea.
Abstract
The operational NOAA categorical vessel icing algorithm is evaluated with regard to advances in understanding of the icing process and forecasting experience. When sea temperatures are <2–3°C above the saltwater freezing point there is the likelihood of supercooling of the spray during its trajectory and extreme ice accretion on topside structures. The NOAA algorithm shows excellent results when compared to a new cold-water dataset from the Labrador Sea (mean sea temperature of −13°C), even though the algorithm was developed from an Alaskan dataset with a mean sea temperature of 3.6°C. A rederived algorithm from the combined dataset is nearly identical to the operational algorithm. The influence of sea temperature in the NOAA model is consistent with the supercooling hypothesis and an additional icing category of extreme is recommended for the algorithm. Severe icing in the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Sea of Japan is primarily caused by extreme cold-air advection, while low sea temperatures contribute to severe icing in the Labrador Sea, Denmark Strait, and Barents Sea. Indirect verification showed that NOAA provided excellent forecasts to over 140 fishing vessels in Alaskan waters during late January 1989, the worst icing episode of the decade. This case suggests that current-generation atmospheric models are capable of providing reliable 36-h forecasts of cold-air advection, and thus indicating regions of heavy icing. A wave height/wind speed threshold for the onset of topside icing is 5 m s−1 for a 15-m vessel, 10 m s−1 for a 50-m trawler and 15 m s−1 for a 100-m vessel, developed from seakeeping theory. These wind speeds are exceeded 83%, 47% and 15%, respectively, during February in the Bering Sea.
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Abstract
Gap winds occur in topographically restricted channels when a component of the pressure gradient is parallel to the channel axis. Aircraft flight-level data are used to examine atmospheric structure and momentum balance during an early spring gap-wind event in Shelikof Strait, Alaska. Alongshore sea level pressure ridging was observed. Vertical cross sections show that across-strait gradients of boundary-layer temperature and depth accounted for the pressure distribution. Geostrophic adjustment of the mass field to the along-strait wind component contributed to development of the observed pressure pattern. Boundary-layer structure and force balance during this event was similar to that often observed along isolated barriers. However, the Rossby radius was lager than the strait width, and atmospheric structure in the strait exit region indicates transition of the flow to open coastline conditions. Two across-strait momentum budgets show that the Coriolis force and across-strait pressure gradient were an order of magnitude larger than other terms. Largest terms in the along-strait balance were the pressure gradient force, acceleration, entrainment, and friction. Boundary-layer acceleration in the along-strait direction was 55% of the potential Emit determined by the along-strait pressure gradient. Entrainment of air into the boundary layer was the largest retarding force and contributed to the along-strait profile of boundary-layer depth. Large horizontal divergence was observed within the strait, yet boundary-layer depth increased slightly following the flow. Entrainment at the inversion and sea surface fluxes accounted for along-strait variation of boundary-layer equivalent potential temperature.
Abstract
Gap winds occur in topographically restricted channels when a component of the pressure gradient is parallel to the channel axis. Aircraft flight-level data are used to examine atmospheric structure and momentum balance during an early spring gap-wind event in Shelikof Strait, Alaska. Alongshore sea level pressure ridging was observed. Vertical cross sections show that across-strait gradients of boundary-layer temperature and depth accounted for the pressure distribution. Geostrophic adjustment of the mass field to the along-strait wind component contributed to development of the observed pressure pattern. Boundary-layer structure and force balance during this event was similar to that often observed along isolated barriers. However, the Rossby radius was lager than the strait width, and atmospheric structure in the strait exit region indicates transition of the flow to open coastline conditions. Two across-strait momentum budgets show that the Coriolis force and across-strait pressure gradient were an order of magnitude larger than other terms. Largest terms in the along-strait balance were the pressure gradient force, acceleration, entrainment, and friction. Boundary-layer acceleration in the along-strait direction was 55% of the potential Emit determined by the along-strait pressure gradient. Entrainment of air into the boundary layer was the largest retarding force and contributed to the along-strait profile of boundary-layer depth. Large horizontal divergence was observed within the strait, yet boundary-layer depth increased slightly following the flow. Entrainment at the inversion and sea surface fluxes accounted for along-strait variation of boundary-layer equivalent potential temperature.
Abstract
An unforecast windstorm in the vicinity of Yakutat, Alaska, on 14 March 1979 illustrates the importance of ageostrophic dynamics within a coastal zone proximal to significant terrain. Large pressure rises [greater than 4 mb (3 h)−1]were observed along the southeastern Alaska coast after passage of a cold front when the low- level geostrophic flow was directed onshore. These pressure rises did not occur simultaneously along the coast, but rather propagated northward along the coast as a coherent pulse or surge. Strong surface winds (approximately 25–30 m s−1) were observed in the region of laid sea level pressure gradient at the leading edge of the surge and occurred after the passage of the synoptic front. Although the sparseness of the observations prevent definite conclusions, this feature resembles a Kelvin wave more than a density current. Omega dropwindsonde observations collected along the coast of Alaska during two other, less dramatic, situations suggest damming and downslope flow structures important to the interpretation of the Yakutat storm.
Coastal semigeostrophic dynamics, that is, an ageostrophic momentum balance in the alongshore direction, occurs when the coastal mountains are hydrodynamically steep. The steep regime is defined by the nondimensional slope (hm /lm )N/f>1, where hm is mountain height, lm is mountain half-width, N is the static stability for the incident flow, and f is the Coriolis parameter. For typical values of N∼10−2 s−1 the coast is wall-like when hm >0.01. Given a wall-like nature of the coast, trapped isolated mesoscale features, with an offshore length scale given by a Rossby radius of o(100 km), propagate alongshore ageostrophically due to a combination of Kelvin waves, density currents, or forced response. To correctly forecast in the coastal zone, numerical weather prediction models must qualitatively resolve terrain slopes so that the modeled dynamics are in the correct semigeostrophic or quasigeostrophic hydrodynamic regime.
Abstract
An unforecast windstorm in the vicinity of Yakutat, Alaska, on 14 March 1979 illustrates the importance of ageostrophic dynamics within a coastal zone proximal to significant terrain. Large pressure rises [greater than 4 mb (3 h)−1]were observed along the southeastern Alaska coast after passage of a cold front when the low- level geostrophic flow was directed onshore. These pressure rises did not occur simultaneously along the coast, but rather propagated northward along the coast as a coherent pulse or surge. Strong surface winds (approximately 25–30 m s−1) were observed in the region of laid sea level pressure gradient at the leading edge of the surge and occurred after the passage of the synoptic front. Although the sparseness of the observations prevent definite conclusions, this feature resembles a Kelvin wave more than a density current. Omega dropwindsonde observations collected along the coast of Alaska during two other, less dramatic, situations suggest damming and downslope flow structures important to the interpretation of the Yakutat storm.
Coastal semigeostrophic dynamics, that is, an ageostrophic momentum balance in the alongshore direction, occurs when the coastal mountains are hydrodynamically steep. The steep regime is defined by the nondimensional slope (hm /lm )N/f>1, where hm is mountain height, lm is mountain half-width, N is the static stability for the incident flow, and f is the Coriolis parameter. For typical values of N∼10−2 s−1 the coast is wall-like when hm >0.01. Given a wall-like nature of the coast, trapped isolated mesoscale features, with an offshore length scale given by a Rossby radius of o(100 km), propagate alongshore ageostrophically due to a combination of Kelvin waves, density currents, or forced response. To correctly forecast in the coastal zone, numerical weather prediction models must qualitatively resolve terrain slopes so that the modeled dynamics are in the correct semigeostrophic or quasigeostrophic hydrodynamic regime.
Abstract
Blocking of onshore flow by coastal mountains was observed south of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, by the NOAA P-3 aircraft on 1 December 1993. Winds increased from 10 m s−1 offshore to 15 m s−1 nearshore and became more parallel to shore in the blocked region, which had a vertical scale of 500 m and an offshore scale of 40–50 km. These length scale and velocity increases are comparable to theory. The flow was semigeostrophic with the coast being hydrodynamically steep; that is, the coast acts like a wall and the alongshore momentum balance is ageostrophic. This is shown by the nondimensional slope parameter—the Burger number, B = hmN/fLm —being greater than 1, where hm and Lm are the height and half-width of the mountain, N is the stability frequency, and f is the Coriolis parameter. The height scale is given by setting the local Froude number equal to 1—that is, hl = U/N ∼ 500 m, where U is the onshore component of velocity. This scale is appropriate when hl is less than the mountain height, hm ; in this case hl /hm ∼ 0.4. The offshore scale is given by the Rossby radius LR = (Nhm /f)Fm = U/f ∼ 50 km for F m < 1, where the mountain Froude number F m = h l /h m = U/h m N ∼ 0.4. The increase in the alongshore wind speed due to blocking, &DeltaV, is equal to the onshore component of the flow, U ≈ 6 m s−1 or in this case about half of the near-coastal alongshore component. A second case on 11 December 1993 had stronger onshore winds and weak stratification and was in a different hydrodynamic regime, with F m ∼ 6. When F m > 1, L R = Nh m /f ∼ 200 km, and ΔV = h m N ∼ 2 m s−1, a small effect comparable to changes in the synoptic-scale flow. The authors expect a maximum coastal jet response when F m ∼ 1.
Abstract
Blocking of onshore flow by coastal mountains was observed south of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, by the NOAA P-3 aircraft on 1 December 1993. Winds increased from 10 m s−1 offshore to 15 m s−1 nearshore and became more parallel to shore in the blocked region, which had a vertical scale of 500 m and an offshore scale of 40–50 km. These length scale and velocity increases are comparable to theory. The flow was semigeostrophic with the coast being hydrodynamically steep; that is, the coast acts like a wall and the alongshore momentum balance is ageostrophic. This is shown by the nondimensional slope parameter—the Burger number, B = hmN/fLm —being greater than 1, where hm and Lm are the height and half-width of the mountain, N is the stability frequency, and f is the Coriolis parameter. The height scale is given by setting the local Froude number equal to 1—that is, hl = U/N ∼ 500 m, where U is the onshore component of velocity. This scale is appropriate when hl is less than the mountain height, hm ; in this case hl /hm ∼ 0.4. The offshore scale is given by the Rossby radius LR = (Nhm /f)Fm = U/f ∼ 50 km for F m < 1, where the mountain Froude number F m = h l /h m = U/h m N ∼ 0.4. The increase in the alongshore wind speed due to blocking, &DeltaV, is equal to the onshore component of the flow, U ≈ 6 m s−1 or in this case about half of the near-coastal alongshore component. A second case on 11 December 1993 had stronger onshore winds and weak stratification and was in a different hydrodynamic regime, with F m ∼ 6. When F m > 1, L R = Nh m /f ∼ 200 km, and ΔV = h m N ∼ 2 m s−1, a small effect comparable to changes in the synoptic-scale flow. The authors expect a maximum coastal jet response when F m ∼ 1.
Abstract
A technique is presented for selection of principal components for which the geophysical signal is greater than the level of noise. The level of noise is simulated by repeated sampling of principal components computed from a spatially and temporally uncorrected random process. By contrasting the application of principal components based upon the covariance matrix and correlation matrix for a given data set of cyclone frequencies, it is shown that the former is more suitable to fitting data and locating the individual variables that represent large variance in the record, while the latter is more suitable for resolving spatial oscillations such as the movement of primary storm tracks.
Abstract
A technique is presented for selection of principal components for which the geophysical signal is greater than the level of noise. The level of noise is simulated by repeated sampling of principal components computed from a spatially and temporally uncorrected random process. By contrasting the application of principal components based upon the covariance matrix and correlation matrix for a given data set of cyclone frequencies, it is shown that the former is more suitable to fitting data and locating the individual variables that represent large variance in the record, while the latter is more suitable for resolving spatial oscillations such as the movement of primary storm tracks.
