Abstract

The impacts of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern Gulf of California (GC) on warm-season rainfall in the Arizona–New Mexico (AZNM) and the northwestern Mexico (NWM) regions associated with the North American monsoon (NAM) are examined from two sets of seasonal simulations in which different SSTs were prescribed in the GC. The simulations reproduced important features in the low-level mesoscale circulations and upper air fields around the time of monsoon rainfall onset in AZNM such as sea-breeze-like diurnal variations in the low-level winds between the GC and the land, development of south-southeasterly winds over the GC and the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental after the onset of rainfall, and the strengthening of the 500-hPa high over AZNM around the onset of monsoon rainfall in AZNM.

The simulated temporal variations in the upper air fields and daily rainfall, as well as the mesoscale circulation around the GC, suggest that the GC SSTs affect the water cycle around the GC mainly by altering mesoscale circulation and water vapor fluxes, but they have minimal impacts on the onset timing of monsoon rainfall in NWM and AZNM. With higher SSTs in the NGC, rainfall in NWM and AZNM increases in response to enhanced water vapor fluxes from the GC into the land. The enhanced onshore component of the low-level water vapor fluxes from the GC with higher GC SSTs results from two opposing effects: weakened sea-breeze-like circulation between the GC and the surrounding lands that tends to reduce the water vapor fluxes from the GC, and increased evaporation from the GC that tends to increase the water vapor fluxes. The simulations also suggest that the development of south-southeasterly low-level winds over the GC after monsoon rainfall onset plays an important role in enhancing rainfall as longer fetches over the GC can provide more water vapor into the low atmosphere.

Abstract

It is reported herein that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been known to directly affect winter weather conditions in western Europe and the eastern United States, is also linked to surface air temperature over the broad southwestern U.S. (SWUS) region, encompassing California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado, in the early warm season. The authors have performed monthly time-scale correlations and composite analyses using three different multidecadal temperature datasets. Results from these analyses reveal that NAO-related upstream circulation positively affects not only the means, but also the extremes, of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the SWUS. This NAO effect is primarily linked with the positioning of upper-tropospheric anticyclones over the western United States that are associated with development of the positive NAO phase through changes in lower-tropospheric wind directions as well as suppression of precipitation and enhanced shortwave radiation at the surface. The effect is observed in the SWUS only during the March–June period because the monthly migration of anticyclones over the western United States follows the migration of the NAO center over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The link between the SWUS temperatures and NAO has been strengthened in the last 30-yr period (1980–2009), compared to the previous 30-yr period (1950–79). In contrast to the NAO–SWUS temperature relationship, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) show only marginal correlation strengths in several limited regions for the same 60-yr period.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. The underlying mechanism for this link is that a positioning of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulations over the western United States that are associated with development of the positive (negative) NAO phases tends to bring warmer and drier (colder and wetter) spring weather conditions to the region. The temperature variations related with the NAO phases also strongly modulate the snowfall–rainfall partitioning. The relationship between the NAO and spring snowmelt can serve as key information for the warm season water resources management in the UP_SW.

Abstract

Regional-scale projections of climate change signals due to increases in atmospheric CO₂ are generated for the western United States using a regional climate model (RCM) nested within two global scenarios from a GCM. The downscaled control climate improved the local accuracy of the GCM results substantially. The downscaled control climate is reasonably close to the results of an 8-yr regional climate hindcast using the same RCM nested within the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, despite wet biases in high-elevation regions along the Pacific coast.

The downscaled near-surface temperature signal ranges from 3 to 5 K in the western United States. The projected warming signals generally increase with increasing elevation, consistent with earlier studies for the Swiss Alps and the northwestern United States. In addition to the snow–albedo feedback, seasonal variations of the low-level flow and soil moisture appear to play important roles in the spatial pattern of warming signals. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics are mainly associated with increased moisture fluxes from the Pacific Ocean and the increase in elevation of freezing levels during the cold season. Projected cold season precipitation increases substantially in mountainous areas along the Pacific Ocean. Most of the projected precipitation increase over the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades is in rainfall, while snowfall generally decreases except above 2500 m. Projected changes in summer rainfall are small. The snow budget signals are characterized by decreased (increased) cold season snowfall (snowmelt) and reduced snowmelt during spring and summer. The projected cold season runoff from high-elevation regions increases substantially in response to increased cold season rainfall and snowmelt, while the spring runoff decreases due to an earlier depletion of snow, except above 2500 m.

Abstract

A seasonal prediction model of tropical cyclone (TC) activities for the period August–October over the North Atlantic (NA) has been developed on the basis of TC track patterns. Using the fuzzy c-means method, a total of 432 TCs in the period 1965–2012 are categorized into the following four groups: 1) TCs off the U.S. East Coast, 2) TCs over the Gulf of Mexico, 3) TCs that recurve into the open ocean of the central NA, and 4) TCs that move westward in the southern NA. The model is applied to predict the four TC groups separately in conjunction with global climate forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). By adding the distributions of the four TC tracks with precalculated weighting factors, this seasonal TC forecast model provides the spatial distribution of TC activities over the entire NA basin. Multiple forecasts initialized in six consecutive months from February to July are generated at monthly intervals to examine the applicability of this model in operational TC forecasting. Cross validations of individual forecasts show that the model can reasonably predict the observed TC frequencies over NA at the 99% confidence level. The model shows a stable spatial prediction skill, proving its advantage for forecasting regional TC activities several months in advance. In particular, the model can generate reliable information on regional TC counts in the near-coastal regions as well as in the entire NA basin.

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of global warming on the timing of plant habitat changes in the twenty-first century using climate scenarios from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The plant habitat changes are predicted by driving the bioclimate rule in a dynamic global vegetation model using the climate projections from 16 coupled GCMs. The timing of plant habitat changes is estimated by the first occurrence of specified fractional changes (10%, 20%, and 30%). All future projections are categorized into three groups by the magnitude of the projected global-mean land surface temperature changes: low (<2.5 K), medium (2.5–3.5 K), and high (>3.5 K) warming. During the course of the twenty-first century, dominant plant habitat changes are projected in ecologically transitional (i.e., from tropical to temperate and temperate to boreal) regions. The timing of plant habitat changes varies substantially according to regions. In the low-warming group, habitat changes of 10% in southern Africa occur in 2028, earlier than in the Americas by more than 70 yr. Differences in the timing between regions increase with the increase in warming and fractional threshold. In the subtropics, fast plant habitat changes are projected for the Asia and Africa regions, where countries of relatively small gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are concentrated. Ecosystems in these regions will be more vulnerable to global warming, because countries of low economic power lack the capability to deal with the warming-induced habitat changes. Thus, it is important to establish international collaboration via which developed countries provide assistance to mitigate the impacts of global warming.

Abstract

Prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is essential to better prepare for and mitigate TC-induced disasters. Although many studies have attempted to predict TC activity on various time scales, very few have focused on near-future predictions. Here a decrease in seasonal TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) for 2016–30 is shown using a track-pattern-based TC prediction model. The TC model is forced by long-term coupled simulations initialized using reanalysis data. Unfavorable conditions for TC development including strengthened vertical wind shear, enhanced low-level anticyclonic flow, and cooled sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical NA are found in the simulations. Most of the environmental changes are attributable to cooling of the NA basinwide SST (NASST) and more frequent El Niño episodes in the near future. The consistent NASST warming trend in the projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that natural variability is more dominant than anthropogenic forcing over the NA in the near-future period.

Abstract

A numerical study of precipitation and river flow from November 1994 to May 1995 at two California basins is presented. The Hopland watershed of the Russian River in the northern California Coastal Range and the headwater of the North Fork American River in the northern Sierra Nevada were selected to investigate the hydroclimate, snow budget, and streamflow at different elevations. Simulated precipitation and streamflow at the Hopland basin closely approximated observed values. An intercomparison between the semidistributed TOPMODEL and two versions of the lumped Sacramento model for the severe storm event of January 1995 indicates that both types of models predicted a similar response of river outflows from this basin, with the exception that TOPMODEL predicted a faster recession of river flow with less base flow after precipitation ended. Precipitation in this low-elevation watershed was predominantly in the form of rain, causing a fast streamflow response. The high-elevation Sierra Nevada watershed received most of its precipitation as snowfall. As a result, the frozen water held in surface storage delayed runoff and streamflow. Application of a simple elevation-dependent snowfall and rainfall partitioning scheme showed the significance of finescale terrain variation in the surface hydrology at high-elevation watersheds.

Abstract

Because spring precipitation in East Asia is critical for recharging water resources after dry winters, its spatiotemporal variations and related mechanisms need in-depth research. This study analyzed a leading spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over East Asia for boreal spring (March–May) during 1979 to 2017. We found that a dipole mode dominates the anomalous spring precipitation between southern China and Southeast Asia with significant interannual and decadal variations. The interannual dipole mode is attributable to the eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while the decadal dipole mode is related to the decadal variation of the central Pacific (CP)-type ENSO. In the El Niño phases of both time scales, the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and Philippines causes moisture convergence (divergence) over southern China (Southeast Asia), resulting in positive (negative) precipitation anomalies therein; the opposite occurs in the La Niña phases. The ensemble experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 confirmed that the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the EP- and CP-type ENSO can be the major drivers of the interannual and decadal dipole modes, respectively. About half of 15 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) showed that the El Niño phase of dipole mode will become dominant in the future. The individual models’ future projections however considerably vary, implying that there is still large uncertainty.

Abstract

This study demonstrates that water vapor transport and precipitation are largely modulated by the intensity of the subtropical jet, transient eddies, and the location of wave breaking events during the different phases of ENSO. Clear differences are found in the potential vorticity (PV), meteorological fields, and trajectory pathways between the two different phases. Rossby wave breaking events have cyclonic and anticyclonic regimes, with associated differences in the frequency of occurrence and the dynamic response. During La Niña, there is a relatively weak subtropical jet allowing PV to intrude into lower latitudes over the western United States. This induces a large amount of moisture transport inland ahead of the PV intrusions, as well as northward transport to the west of a surface anticyclone. During El Niño, the subtropical jet is relatively strong and is associated with an enhanced cyclonic wave breaking. This is accompanied by a time-mean surface cyclone, which brings zonal moisture transport to the western United States. In both (El Niño and La Niña) phases, there is a high correlation (>0.3–0.7) between upper-level PV at 250 hPa and precipitation over the west coast of the United States with a time lag of 0–1 days. Vertically integrated water vapor fluxes during El Niño are up to 70 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ larger than those during La Niña along the west coast of the United States. The zonal and meridional moist static energy flux resembles wave vapor transport patterns, suggesting that they are closely controlled by the large-scale flows and location of wave breaking events during the different phase of ENSO.