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- Author or Editor: John T. Allen x
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Abstract
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) influence winter tornado variability and significant tornado (EF2+, where EF is the enhanced Fujita scale) environments. Increases occur in the probability of a significant tornado environment from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest during La Niña, and across the southern contiguous United States (CONUS) during El Niño. Winter significant tornado environments are absent across Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Carolinas during moderate-to-strong La Niña events. Jet stream modulation by ENSO contributes to higher tornado totals during El Niño in December and La Niña in January, especially when simultaneous with a warm GoM. ENSO-neutral phases yield fewer and weaker tornadoes, but proximity to warm GoM climate features can enhance the probability of a significant tornado environment. ENSO intensity matters; stronger ENSO phases generate increases in tornado frequency and the probability of a significant tornado environment, but are characterized by large variance, in which very strong El Niño and La Niña events can produce unfavorable tornado climatological states. This study suggests that it is a feasible undertaking to expand spring seasonal and subseasonal tornado prediction efforts to encompass the winter season, which is of importance given the notable threat posed by winter tornadoes. Significant tornadoes account for 95% of tornado fatalities and winter tornadoes are rated significant more frequently than during other seasons.
Abstract
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) influence winter tornado variability and significant tornado (EF2+, where EF is the enhanced Fujita scale) environments. Increases occur in the probability of a significant tornado environment from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest during La Niña, and across the southern contiguous United States (CONUS) during El Niño. Winter significant tornado environments are absent across Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Carolinas during moderate-to-strong La Niña events. Jet stream modulation by ENSO contributes to higher tornado totals during El Niño in December and La Niña in January, especially when simultaneous with a warm GoM. ENSO-neutral phases yield fewer and weaker tornadoes, but proximity to warm GoM climate features can enhance the probability of a significant tornado environment. ENSO intensity matters; stronger ENSO phases generate increases in tornado frequency and the probability of a significant tornado environment, but are characterized by large variance, in which very strong El Niño and La Niña events can produce unfavorable tornado climatological states. This study suggests that it is a feasible undertaking to expand spring seasonal and subseasonal tornado prediction efforts to encompass the winter season, which is of importance given the notable threat posed by winter tornadoes. Significant tornadoes account for 95% of tornado fatalities and winter tornadoes are rated significant more frequently than during other seasons.
Abstract
Convective surface winds in the contiguous United States are classified as severe at 50 kt (58 mi h−1, or 26 m s−1), whether measured or estimated. In 2006, NCDC (now NCEI) Storm Data, from which analyzed data are directly derived, began explicit categorization of such reports as measured gusts (MGs) or estimated gusts (EGs). Because of the documented tendency of human observers to overestimate winds, the quality and reliability of EGs (especially in comparison with MGs) has been challenged, mostly for nonconvective winds and controlled-testing situations, but only speculatively for bulk convective data. For the 10-yr period of 2006–15, 150 423 filtered convective-wind gust magnitudes are compared and analyzed, including 15 183 MGs and 135 240 EGs, both nationally and by state. Nonmeteorological artifacts include marked geographic discontinuities and pronounced “spikes” of an order of magnitude in which EG values (in both miles per hour and knots) end in the digits 0 or 5. Sources such as NWS employees, storm chasers, and the general public overestimate EGs, whereas trained spotters are relatively accurate. Analysis of the ratio of EG to MG and their sources also reveals an apparent warning-verification-influence bias in the climatological distribution of wind gusts imparted by EG reliance in the Southeast. Results from prior wind-tunnel testing of human subjects are applied to 1) illustrate the difference between measured and perceived winds for the database and 2) show the impact on the severe-wind dataset if EGs were bias-corrected for the human overestimation factor.
Abstract
Convective surface winds in the contiguous United States are classified as severe at 50 kt (58 mi h−1, or 26 m s−1), whether measured or estimated. In 2006, NCDC (now NCEI) Storm Data, from which analyzed data are directly derived, began explicit categorization of such reports as measured gusts (MGs) or estimated gusts (EGs). Because of the documented tendency of human observers to overestimate winds, the quality and reliability of EGs (especially in comparison with MGs) has been challenged, mostly for nonconvective winds and controlled-testing situations, but only speculatively for bulk convective data. For the 10-yr period of 2006–15, 150 423 filtered convective-wind gust magnitudes are compared and analyzed, including 15 183 MGs and 135 240 EGs, both nationally and by state. Nonmeteorological artifacts include marked geographic discontinuities and pronounced “spikes” of an order of magnitude in which EG values (in both miles per hour and knots) end in the digits 0 or 5. Sources such as NWS employees, storm chasers, and the general public overestimate EGs, whereas trained spotters are relatively accurate. Analysis of the ratio of EG to MG and their sources also reveals an apparent warning-verification-influence bias in the climatological distribution of wind gusts imparted by EG reliance in the Southeast. Results from prior wind-tunnel testing of human subjects are applied to 1) illustrate the difference between measured and perceived winds for the database and 2) show the impact on the severe-wind dataset if EGs were bias-corrected for the human overestimation factor.
ABSTRACT
A 10-yr geostationary (GEO) overshooting cloud-top (OT) detection database using Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT) Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager (JAMI) observations has been developed over the Australian region. GEO satellite imagers collect spatially and temporally detailed observations of deep convection, providing insight into the development and evolution of hazardous storms, particularly where surface observations of hazardous storms and deep convection are sparse and ground-based radar or lightning sensor networks are limited. Hazardous storms often produce one or more OTs that indicate the location of strong updrafts where weather hazards are typically concentrated, which can cause substantial impacts on the ground such as hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and lightning and to aviation such as turbulence and in-flight icing. The 10-yr OT database produced using an automated OT detection algorithm is demonstrated for analysis of storm frequency, diurnally, spatially, and seasonally relative to known features such as the Australian monsoon, expected regions of hazardous storms along the southeastern coastal regions of southern Queensland and New South Wales, and the preferential extratropical cyclone track along the Indian Ocean and southern Australian coast. A filter based on atmospheric instability, deep-layer wind shear, and freezing level was used to identify OTs that could have produced hail. The filtered OT database is used to generate a hail frequency estimate that identifies a region extending from north of Brisbane to Sydney and the Goldfields–Esperance region of eastern Western Australia as the most hail-prone regions.
ABSTRACT
A 10-yr geostationary (GEO) overshooting cloud-top (OT) detection database using Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT) Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager (JAMI) observations has been developed over the Australian region. GEO satellite imagers collect spatially and temporally detailed observations of deep convection, providing insight into the development and evolution of hazardous storms, particularly where surface observations of hazardous storms and deep convection are sparse and ground-based radar or lightning sensor networks are limited. Hazardous storms often produce one or more OTs that indicate the location of strong updrafts where weather hazards are typically concentrated, which can cause substantial impacts on the ground such as hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and lightning and to aviation such as turbulence and in-flight icing. The 10-yr OT database produced using an automated OT detection algorithm is demonstrated for analysis of storm frequency, diurnally, spatially, and seasonally relative to known features such as the Australian monsoon, expected regions of hazardous storms along the southeastern coastal regions of southern Queensland and New South Wales, and the preferential extratropical cyclone track along the Indian Ocean and southern Australian coast. A filter based on atmospheric instability, deep-layer wind shear, and freezing level was used to identify OTs that could have produced hail. The filtered OT database is used to generate a hail frequency estimate that identifies a region extending from north of Brisbane to Sydney and the Goldfields–Esperance region of eastern Western Australia as the most hail-prone regions.
