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Abstract
In the 1980s Florida was struck by an unusual series of severe freezes that caused enormous damage to citrus groves. While citrus acreage in relatively freeze-free parts of the state has expanded rapidly since these freezes, serious questions remain about the commercial viability of growing citrus crops in some central Florida counties. This paper considers the role that freeze risk plays in the investment decisions of citrus growers. A simplified example is used to estimate tolerable levels of freeze risk for individuals evaluating the investment at different discount rates, and to show the impact of changes in the risk level. Changes in estimated freeze risk in the 1980s are computed over the historical temperature record, and related to the growers’ replanting decisions. It is concluded that the computed changes in the probability of a killing freeze would be sufficient to alter the citrus planting decisions of some investors. Furthermore, the longest available climate record should be used to estimate the risk of such low-probability extreme events.
Abstract
In the 1980s Florida was struck by an unusual series of severe freezes that caused enormous damage to citrus groves. While citrus acreage in relatively freeze-free parts of the state has expanded rapidly since these freezes, serious questions remain about the commercial viability of growing citrus crops in some central Florida counties. This paper considers the role that freeze risk plays in the investment decisions of citrus growers. A simplified example is used to estimate tolerable levels of freeze risk for individuals evaluating the investment at different discount rates, and to show the impact of changes in the risk level. Changes in estimated freeze risk in the 1980s are computed over the historical temperature record, and related to the growers’ replanting decisions. It is concluded that the computed changes in the probability of a killing freeze would be sufficient to alter the citrus planting decisions of some investors. Furthermore, the longest available climate record should be used to estimate the risk of such low-probability extreme events.
Abstract
Severe freezes are a serious problem for the citrus growers of central Florida. To investigate possible climatic causes of intermittent freezes, this paper examines the influence of several atmospheric circulation patterns on winter temperatures in Florida. The Pacific/North American pattern is shown to be particularly influential and the North Atlantic Oscillation also to be significant, while the Southern Oscillation does not show a direct effect. A decreasing trend in Florida winter temperatures since 1947 can be explained by fluctuations in the former two circulation patterns. Climate model studies to investigate possible changes in the frequency or location of these circulation patterns could suggest potential changes in the freeze risk associated with climatic change.
Abstract
Severe freezes are a serious problem for the citrus growers of central Florida. To investigate possible climatic causes of intermittent freezes, this paper examines the influence of several atmospheric circulation patterns on winter temperatures in Florida. The Pacific/North American pattern is shown to be particularly influential and the North Atlantic Oscillation also to be significant, while the Southern Oscillation does not show a direct effect. A decreasing trend in Florida winter temperatures since 1947 can be explained by fluctuations in the former two circulation patterns. Climate model studies to investigate possible changes in the frequency or location of these circulation patterns could suggest potential changes in the freeze risk associated with climatic change.
Abstract
Observations of the current state of the atmosphere are a major input to production of modern weather forecasts. As a result, investments in observations are a major component of public expenditures related to weather forecasting. Consequently, from both a meteorological and societal perspective, it is desirable to select an appropriate level of public investment in observations. Although the meteorological community has discussed optimal investment in observations for more than three decades, it still lacks a practical, systematic framework for analyzing this issue. This paper presents the basic elements of such a framework, using an economic approach. The framework is then demonstrated using an example for radiosonde observations and numerical weather forecasts. In presenting and demonstrating the framework, the paper also identifies gaps in existing knowledge that must be addressed before a more complete economic evaluation of investment in observations can be implemented.
Abstract
Observations of the current state of the atmosphere are a major input to production of modern weather forecasts. As a result, investments in observations are a major component of public expenditures related to weather forecasting. Consequently, from both a meteorological and societal perspective, it is desirable to select an appropriate level of public investment in observations. Although the meteorological community has discussed optimal investment in observations for more than three decades, it still lacks a practical, systematic framework for analyzing this issue. This paper presents the basic elements of such a framework, using an economic approach. The framework is then demonstrated using an example for radiosonde observations and numerical weather forecasts. In presenting and demonstrating the framework, the paper also identifies gaps in existing knowledge that must be addressed before a more complete economic evaluation of investment in observations can be implemented.
