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- Author or Editor: Ke Fan x
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Abstract
The subseasonal variability of winter air temperature in China during 2021/22 underwent significant changes, showing warm, warm, and cold anomalies during 2–23 December 2021 (P1), 1–27 January 2022 (P2), and 28 January–24 February 2022 (P3). The strong (weak) zonal circulation over East Asia led to positive (negative) surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs) during P1 and P2 (P3). The position of the Siberian high affected the distribution of the warmest center of SATA over northeastern and northwestern China in P1 and P2, respectively. Further investigations indicated that intraseasonal components (10–90 days) primarily drove the warm-to-cold transition in China during P2 and P3, contributing to 79.5% of the variance in SATA in winter 2021/22. Strong (weak) East Asian intraseasonal zonal circulations and positive (negative) meridional wind anomalies over China–Lake Baikal led to warm (cold) anomalies over China during P2 (P3). East Asian circulation alternations from P2 to P3 were associated with a shift in intraseasonal geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic region from positive to negative in the mid- to high troposphere through the propagation of north and south branch wave trains. The reversal of the North Atlantic geopotential height anomalies between P2 and P3 was modulated by intraseasonal higher-latitude SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and the location of intraseasonal stratospheric polar vortex. Furthermore, the intensified south branch wave train from the Indian Peninsula to China in the mid- to high troposphere was associated with active convection over the tropical western Indian Ocean during P3. These processes could be verified by using the linear baroclinic model.
Abstract
The subseasonal variability of winter air temperature in China during 2021/22 underwent significant changes, showing warm, warm, and cold anomalies during 2–23 December 2021 (P1), 1–27 January 2022 (P2), and 28 January–24 February 2022 (P3). The strong (weak) zonal circulation over East Asia led to positive (negative) surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs) during P1 and P2 (P3). The position of the Siberian high affected the distribution of the warmest center of SATA over northeastern and northwestern China in P1 and P2, respectively. Further investigations indicated that intraseasonal components (10–90 days) primarily drove the warm-to-cold transition in China during P2 and P3, contributing to 79.5% of the variance in SATA in winter 2021/22. Strong (weak) East Asian intraseasonal zonal circulations and positive (negative) meridional wind anomalies over China–Lake Baikal led to warm (cold) anomalies over China during P2 (P3). East Asian circulation alternations from P2 to P3 were associated with a shift in intraseasonal geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic region from positive to negative in the mid- to high troposphere through the propagation of north and south branch wave trains. The reversal of the North Atlantic geopotential height anomalies between P2 and P3 was modulated by intraseasonal higher-latitude SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and the location of intraseasonal stratospheric polar vortex. Furthermore, the intensified south branch wave train from the Indian Peninsula to China in the mid- to high troposphere was associated with active convection over the tropical western Indian Ocean during P3. These processes could be verified by using the linear baroclinic model.
Abstract
How the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) affects El Niño–related signals in Southeast Asia is investigated in this study on a subseasonal scale. Based on observational and reanalysis data, as well as numerical model simulations, El Niño–related precipitation anomalies are analyzed for AMO positive and negative phases, which reveals a time-dependent modulation of the AMO. 1) In May–June, the AMO influences the precipitation in southern China (SC) and the Indochina peninsula (ICP) by modulating the El Niño–related air–sea interaction over the western North Pacific (WNP). During negative AMO phases, cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the WNP favor the maintaining of the WNP anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). The associated southerly (westerly) anomalies on the northwest (southwest) flank of the WNPAC enhance (reduce) the climatological moisture transport to SC (the ICP) and result in wetter (drier) than normal conditions. In contrast, during positive AMO phases, weak SSTAs over the WNP lead to limited influence of El Niño on precipitation in Southeast Asia. 2) In July–August, the teleconnection impact from the North Atlantic is more manifest than that in May–June. During positive AMO phases, the warmer than normal North Atlantic favors anomalous wave trains, which propagate along the “great circle route” and result in positive pressure anomalies over SC, consequently suppressing precipitation in SC and the ICP. During negative AMO phases, the anomalous wave trains tend to propagate eastward from Europe to Northeast Asia along the summer Asian jet, exerting limited influence on Southeast Asia.
Abstract
How the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) affects El Niño–related signals in Southeast Asia is investigated in this study on a subseasonal scale. Based on observational and reanalysis data, as well as numerical model simulations, El Niño–related precipitation anomalies are analyzed for AMO positive and negative phases, which reveals a time-dependent modulation of the AMO. 1) In May–June, the AMO influences the precipitation in southern China (SC) and the Indochina peninsula (ICP) by modulating the El Niño–related air–sea interaction over the western North Pacific (WNP). During negative AMO phases, cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the WNP favor the maintaining of the WNP anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). The associated southerly (westerly) anomalies on the northwest (southwest) flank of the WNPAC enhance (reduce) the climatological moisture transport to SC (the ICP) and result in wetter (drier) than normal conditions. In contrast, during positive AMO phases, weak SSTAs over the WNP lead to limited influence of El Niño on precipitation in Southeast Asia. 2) In July–August, the teleconnection impact from the North Atlantic is more manifest than that in May–June. During positive AMO phases, the warmer than normal North Atlantic favors anomalous wave trains, which propagate along the “great circle route” and result in positive pressure anomalies over SC, consequently suppressing precipitation in SC and the ICP. During negative AMO phases, the anomalous wave trains tend to propagate eastward from Europe to Northeast Asia along the summer Asian jet, exerting limited influence on Southeast Asia.
Abstract
The interaction between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is investigated in this study. On one hand, the influence of the decaying phase of ENSO on the SCSSM is stronger during negative phases of the AMO than during positive phases. During negative phases of the AMO, El Niño (La Niña) with relatively larger variability leads to a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) that persists from the ENSO mature winter to the ENSO decaying summer, weakening (strengthening) the SCSSM; on the contrary, during positive phases of the AMO, ENSO with relatively weaker variability cannot influence the SCSSM significantly. On the other hand, the SCSSM has a closer relationship with the subsequent ENSO development during positive phases of the AMO than during negative phases. During positive phases of the AMO, atmospheric teleconnections induced by the warmer North Atlantic result in low pressure and cyclonic anomalies over the South China Sea. Consequently, the stronger than normal SCSSM is accompanied by significant westerly wind anomalies over the western tropical Pacific, which favor the development of El Niño events. However, during negative phases of the AMO, the SCSSM-related westerly wind anomalies are rather weak, having a nonsignificant influence on El Niño development. The results are also demonstrated in model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
Abstract
The interaction between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is investigated in this study. On one hand, the influence of the decaying phase of ENSO on the SCSSM is stronger during negative phases of the AMO than during positive phases. During negative phases of the AMO, El Niño (La Niña) with relatively larger variability leads to a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) that persists from the ENSO mature winter to the ENSO decaying summer, weakening (strengthening) the SCSSM; on the contrary, during positive phases of the AMO, ENSO with relatively weaker variability cannot influence the SCSSM significantly. On the other hand, the SCSSM has a closer relationship with the subsequent ENSO development during positive phases of the AMO than during negative phases. During positive phases of the AMO, atmospheric teleconnections induced by the warmer North Atlantic result in low pressure and cyclonic anomalies over the South China Sea. Consequently, the stronger than normal SCSSM is accompanied by significant westerly wind anomalies over the western tropical Pacific, which favor the development of El Niño events. However, during negative phases of the AMO, the SCSSM-related westerly wind anomalies are rather weak, having a nonsignificant influence on El Niño development. The results are also demonstrated in model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
Abstract
The features and causes of the leading intermonth modes of winter surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) over China are investigated, and associated prediction models are developed. The first three intermonth modes of winter SATA over China are obtained by extended empirical orthogonal function (i.e., EEOF1–3) analysis. The results show that EEOF1 represents consistent variations in the whole winter, with a variance contribution of 32.3%, whereas EEOF2 and EEOF3 show spatiotemporally inconsistent changes, and their variance contributions are 16.9% and 12.5%, respectively. EEOF2 has out-of-phase variations between December and January–February, and EEOF3 exhibits a temporal warm–cold alternating pattern, with spatially reversing changes over northwestern and southern China. However, the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) presents a limited prediction skill for winter SATA over China and their intermonth modes. Further investigations indicate that the September sea ice over the Barents–Laptev Seas, the November snow cover over western Europe and East Asia, and the November northern Atlantic sea surface temperature can be, respectively, adopted to develop prediction schemes for the consistent mode (EEOF1 scheme) and two inconsistent modes (EEOF2 and EEOF3 schemes) based on specific mechanisms. These schemes show effective performances in predicting both individual modes and the reconstruction field of SATA over China. The temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) between cross-validation results and observations are 0.48, 0.51, and 0.31 for the EEOF1–3 modes, respectively (the 90% confidence level is 0.27). For the reconstruction field, the TCCs are 0.40, 0.27, and 0.45 in December, January, and February, respectively, which are much higher than those of the CFSv2 outputs (0.23, −0.16, and −0.09).
Abstract
The features and causes of the leading intermonth modes of winter surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) over China are investigated, and associated prediction models are developed. The first three intermonth modes of winter SATA over China are obtained by extended empirical orthogonal function (i.e., EEOF1–3) analysis. The results show that EEOF1 represents consistent variations in the whole winter, with a variance contribution of 32.3%, whereas EEOF2 and EEOF3 show spatiotemporally inconsistent changes, and their variance contributions are 16.9% and 12.5%, respectively. EEOF2 has out-of-phase variations between December and January–February, and EEOF3 exhibits a temporal warm–cold alternating pattern, with spatially reversing changes over northwestern and southern China. However, the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) presents a limited prediction skill for winter SATA over China and their intermonth modes. Further investigations indicate that the September sea ice over the Barents–Laptev Seas, the November snow cover over western Europe and East Asia, and the November northern Atlantic sea surface temperature can be, respectively, adopted to develop prediction schemes for the consistent mode (EEOF1 scheme) and two inconsistent modes (EEOF2 and EEOF3 schemes) based on specific mechanisms. These schemes show effective performances in predicting both individual modes and the reconstruction field of SATA over China. The temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) between cross-validation results and observations are 0.48, 0.51, and 0.31 for the EEOF1–3 modes, respectively (the 90% confidence level is 0.27). For the reconstruction field, the TCCs are 0.40, 0.27, and 0.45 in December, January, and February, respectively, which are much higher than those of the CFSv2 outputs (0.23, −0.16, and −0.09).
Abstract
This study focuses on the month-to-month variability of winter temperature anomalies over Northeast China (NECTA), especially the out-of-phase change between December and January–February (colder than normal in December and warmer than normal in January–February, and vice versa), which accounts for 30% of the past 37 years (1980–2016). Our analysis shows that the variability of sea ice concentration (SIC) in the preceding November over the Davis Strait–Baffin Bay (SIC_DSBB) mainly affects NECTA in December, whereas the SIC over the Barents–Kara Sea (SIC_BKS) significantly impacts NECTA in January–February. A possible reason for the different effects of SIC_DSBB and SIC_BKS on NECTA is that the month-to-month increments (here called DM) of SIC over these two areas between October and November are different. A smaller DM of SIC_DSBB in November can generate eastward-propagating Rossby waves toward East Asia, whereas a larger DM of SIC_BKS can affect upward-propagating stationary Rossby waves toward the stratosphere in November. Less than normal SIC_DSBB in November corresponds to a negative phase of the sea surface temperature tripole pattern over the North Atlantic, which contributes to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like geopotential height anomalies via the eddy-feedback mechanism, ultimately favoring cold conditions over Northeast China. However, positive November SIC_BKS anomalies can suppress upward-propagating Rossby waves that originate from the troposphere in November, strengthening the stratospheric polar vortex and leading to a positive phase of an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the stratosphere. Subsequently, these stratospheric anomalies propagate downward, causing the AO-like pattern in the troposphere in January–February, favoring warm conditions in Northeast China, and vice versa.
Abstract
This study focuses on the month-to-month variability of winter temperature anomalies over Northeast China (NECTA), especially the out-of-phase change between December and January–February (colder than normal in December and warmer than normal in January–February, and vice versa), which accounts for 30% of the past 37 years (1980–2016). Our analysis shows that the variability of sea ice concentration (SIC) in the preceding November over the Davis Strait–Baffin Bay (SIC_DSBB) mainly affects NECTA in December, whereas the SIC over the Barents–Kara Sea (SIC_BKS) significantly impacts NECTA in January–February. A possible reason for the different effects of SIC_DSBB and SIC_BKS on NECTA is that the month-to-month increments (here called DM) of SIC over these two areas between October and November are different. A smaller DM of SIC_DSBB in November can generate eastward-propagating Rossby waves toward East Asia, whereas a larger DM of SIC_BKS can affect upward-propagating stationary Rossby waves toward the stratosphere in November. Less than normal SIC_DSBB in November corresponds to a negative phase of the sea surface temperature tripole pattern over the North Atlantic, which contributes to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like geopotential height anomalies via the eddy-feedback mechanism, ultimately favoring cold conditions over Northeast China. However, positive November SIC_BKS anomalies can suppress upward-propagating Rossby waves that originate from the troposphere in November, strengthening the stratospheric polar vortex and leading to a positive phase of an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the stratosphere. Subsequently, these stratospheric anomalies propagate downward, causing the AO-like pattern in the troposphere in January–February, favoring warm conditions in Northeast China, and vice versa.
Abstract
The summer Asian–Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian–North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR.
Abstract
The summer Asian–Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian–North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR.
Abstract
The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) shifted to a negative phase around the late 1990s. Its impact on the atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) intensity over the western North Pacific (WNP) during late summer was investigated. Corresponding to the phase transition of the IPO, La Niña–like SST anomalies and an enhanced Walker circulation appeared in the tropical Pacific, which led to decreased precipitation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The decreased precipitation induced a Gill response with an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the WNP. This resulted in anomalous background westerly vertical shear over the tropical WNP. Furthermore, the anomalous anticyclone induced anomalous horizontal divergence and descent motion in the planetary boundary layer, which led to decreased background surface moisture over the tropical WNP. These changes in background atmospheric conditions suppressed the development of QBWO perturbations over the tropical WNP. Therefore, the QBWO intensity weakened over the WNP after the late 1990s. The composite evolution of QBWO events before and after the late 1990s confirm the interdecadal change of the QBWO intensity. A simple model was employed to understand the relative role of the background moisture and vertical shear changes in modulating the QBWO activity. The result shows that the moisture change plays a more important role than the vertical shear change in weakening the QBWO intensity.
Abstract
The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) shifted to a negative phase around the late 1990s. Its impact on the atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) intensity over the western North Pacific (WNP) during late summer was investigated. Corresponding to the phase transition of the IPO, La Niña–like SST anomalies and an enhanced Walker circulation appeared in the tropical Pacific, which led to decreased precipitation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The decreased precipitation induced a Gill response with an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the WNP. This resulted in anomalous background westerly vertical shear over the tropical WNP. Furthermore, the anomalous anticyclone induced anomalous horizontal divergence and descent motion in the planetary boundary layer, which led to decreased background surface moisture over the tropical WNP. These changes in background atmospheric conditions suppressed the development of QBWO perturbations over the tropical WNP. Therefore, the QBWO intensity weakened over the WNP after the late 1990s. The composite evolution of QBWO events before and after the late 1990s confirm the interdecadal change of the QBWO intensity. A simple model was employed to understand the relative role of the background moisture and vertical shear changes in modulating the QBWO activity. The result shows that the moisture change plays a more important role than the vertical shear change in weakening the QBWO intensity.
Abstract
In this study, the authors found that the summer precipitation over China experienced different decadal variation features from north to south after the late 1990s. In northeastern and North China and the lower–middle reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation decreased after 1999, while precipitation experienced a significant reduction over South and southwestern China and a significant increase over the southern parts of Hetao region and Huaihe River valley after 2003. The authors next analyzed the associated decadal variation of the atmospheric circulation and attempted to identify the mechanisms causing the two decadal variations of precipitation. The wind anomalies for the former exhibit a barotropic meridional dipole pattern, with anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and cyclonic anomalies over the southeastern Chinese coast to the northwestern Pacific. For the latter, there is a southeast–northwest-oriented dipole pattern in the middle and lower troposphere, with cyclonic anomalies over the northern parts of the Tibetan Plateau and anticyclonic anomalies over the lower–middle reaches of the Yangtze River to southern Japan. An anomalous anticyclone dominates the upper troposphere over China south of 40°N. The authors further found that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the tropical Atlantic played an important role in the decadal variation around 2003 via inducing teleconnections over Eurasia. In contrast, the decadal variation around 1999 may be caused by the phase shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), as has previously been indicated.
Abstract
In this study, the authors found that the summer precipitation over China experienced different decadal variation features from north to south after the late 1990s. In northeastern and North China and the lower–middle reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation decreased after 1999, while precipitation experienced a significant reduction over South and southwestern China and a significant increase over the southern parts of Hetao region and Huaihe River valley after 2003. The authors next analyzed the associated decadal variation of the atmospheric circulation and attempted to identify the mechanisms causing the two decadal variations of precipitation. The wind anomalies for the former exhibit a barotropic meridional dipole pattern, with anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and cyclonic anomalies over the southeastern Chinese coast to the northwestern Pacific. For the latter, there is a southeast–northwest-oriented dipole pattern in the middle and lower troposphere, with cyclonic anomalies over the northern parts of the Tibetan Plateau and anticyclonic anomalies over the lower–middle reaches of the Yangtze River to southern Japan. An anomalous anticyclone dominates the upper troposphere over China south of 40°N. The authors further found that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the tropical Atlantic played an important role in the decadal variation around 2003 via inducing teleconnections over Eurasia. In contrast, the decadal variation around 1999 may be caused by the phase shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), as has previously been indicated.
Abstract
The mei-yu withdrawal date (MWD) is a crucial indicator of flood/drought conditions over East Asia. It is characterized by a strong interannual variability, but its underlying mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the possible effects of the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean on the MWD on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Both our observations and model results suggest that the winter SST anomalies associated with the MWD are mainly contributed to by a combination of the first two leading modes of the winter SST in the North Pacific, which have a horseshoe shape (the NPSST). The statistical results indicate that the intimate linkage between the NPSST and the MWD has intensified since the early 1990s. During the time period 1990–2016, the NPSST-related SST anomalies persisted from winter to the following seasons and affected the SST over the tropical Pacific in July. Subsequently, the SST anomalies throughout the North Pacific strengthened the southward migration of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the southward and westward displacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), leading to an increase in mei-yu rainfall from 1 to 20 July. More convincingly, the anomalous EAJS and WPSH induced by the SST anomalies can be reproduced well by numerical simulations. By contrast, the influence of the NPSST on the EASJ and WPSH were not clear between 1961 and 1985. This study further illustrates that the enhanced interannual variability of the NPSST may be attributed to the more persistent SST anomalies during the time period 1990–2016.
Abstract
The mei-yu withdrawal date (MWD) is a crucial indicator of flood/drought conditions over East Asia. It is characterized by a strong interannual variability, but its underlying mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the possible effects of the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean on the MWD on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Both our observations and model results suggest that the winter SST anomalies associated with the MWD are mainly contributed to by a combination of the first two leading modes of the winter SST in the North Pacific, which have a horseshoe shape (the NPSST). The statistical results indicate that the intimate linkage between the NPSST and the MWD has intensified since the early 1990s. During the time period 1990–2016, the NPSST-related SST anomalies persisted from winter to the following seasons and affected the SST over the tropical Pacific in July. Subsequently, the SST anomalies throughout the North Pacific strengthened the southward migration of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the southward and westward displacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), leading to an increase in mei-yu rainfall from 1 to 20 July. More convincingly, the anomalous EAJS and WPSH induced by the SST anomalies can be reproduced well by numerical simulations. By contrast, the influence of the NPSST on the EASJ and WPSH were not clear between 1961 and 1985. This study further illustrates that the enhanced interannual variability of the NPSST may be attributed to the more persistent SST anomalies during the time period 1990–2016.
Abstract
The reversal of surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) in winter brings a great challenge for short-term climate prediction, and the mechanisms are not well understood. This study found that the reversal of SATA between December and January over China could be demonstrated by the second leading mode of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis on the December–January SATA. It further reveals that the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (CP ENSO) has contributed more influence on such a reversal of SATA since 1997. CP ENSO shows positive but weak correlations with SATA over China in both December and January during the pre-1996 period, whereas it shows significant negative and positive correlations with the SATA in December and January, respectively, during the post-1997 period. The CP ENSO–related circulations suggest that the change of the Siberian high has played an essential role in the reversal of SATA since 1997. The pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the CP ENSO leads to a westward-replaced Walker circulation that alters the local meridional circulation and, further, has impacted the Siberian high and SATA over China since 1997. Moreover, the seasonal northward march of the convergence zone from December to January causes a northward-replaced west branch of the Walker circulation in January compared with that in December. The west branch of the Walker circulation in December and January directly modulates local Hadley and Ferrel circulations and then causes contrasting Siberian high anomalies by inducing opposite vertical motion anomalies over Siberia. The reversal of SATA between December and January, therefore, has been more frequently observed over China since 1997. The abovementioned mechanisms are validated by the analysis at pentad time scales and confirmed by numerical simulations.
Abstract
The reversal of surface air temperature anomalies (SATA) in winter brings a great challenge for short-term climate prediction, and the mechanisms are not well understood. This study found that the reversal of SATA between December and January over China could be demonstrated by the second leading mode of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis on the December–January SATA. It further reveals that the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (CP ENSO) has contributed more influence on such a reversal of SATA since 1997. CP ENSO shows positive but weak correlations with SATA over China in both December and January during the pre-1996 period, whereas it shows significant negative and positive correlations with the SATA in December and January, respectively, during the post-1997 period. The CP ENSO–related circulations suggest that the change of the Siberian high has played an essential role in the reversal of SATA since 1997. The pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the CP ENSO leads to a westward-replaced Walker circulation that alters the local meridional circulation and, further, has impacted the Siberian high and SATA over China since 1997. Moreover, the seasonal northward march of the convergence zone from December to January causes a northward-replaced west branch of the Walker circulation in January compared with that in December. The west branch of the Walker circulation in December and January directly modulates local Hadley and Ferrel circulations and then causes contrasting Siberian high anomalies by inducing opposite vertical motion anomalies over Siberia. The reversal of SATA between December and January, therefore, has been more frequently observed over China since 1997. The abovementioned mechanisms are validated by the analysis at pentad time scales and confirmed by numerical simulations.
