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- Author or Editor: Leonard M. Druyan x
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Abstract
Simulations made with the general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) run at 4° latitude by 5° longitude horizontal resolution are analyzed to determine the model's representation of African wave disturbances. Waves detected in the model's lower troposphere over northern Africa during the summer monsoon season exhibit realistic wavelengths of about 2200 km. However, power spectra of the meridional wind show that the waves propagate westward too slowly, with periods of 5–10 days, about twice the observed values. This sluggishness is most pronounced during August, consistent with simulated 600-mb zonal winds that are only about half the observed speeds of the midtropospheric jet. The modeled wave amplitudes are strongest over West Africa during the first half of the summer but decrease dramatically by September, contrary to observational evidence. Maximum amplitudes occur at realistic latitudes, 12°–20°N, but not as observed near the Atlantic coast. Spectral analyses suggest some wave modulation of precipitation in the 5–8-day band, and compositing shows that precipitation is slightly enhanced east of the wave trough, coincident with southerly winds. Extrema of low-level convergence west of the wave troughs, coinciding with northerly winds, were not preferred areas for simulated precipitation, probably because of the drying effect of this advection, as waves were generally north of the humid zone. The documentation of African wave disturbances in the GISS GCM is a first step toward considering wave influences in future GCM studies of Sahel drought.
Abstract
Simulations made with the general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) run at 4° latitude by 5° longitude horizontal resolution are analyzed to determine the model's representation of African wave disturbances. Waves detected in the model's lower troposphere over northern Africa during the summer monsoon season exhibit realistic wavelengths of about 2200 km. However, power spectra of the meridional wind show that the waves propagate westward too slowly, with periods of 5–10 days, about twice the observed values. This sluggishness is most pronounced during August, consistent with simulated 600-mb zonal winds that are only about half the observed speeds of the midtropospheric jet. The modeled wave amplitudes are strongest over West Africa during the first half of the summer but decrease dramatically by September, contrary to observational evidence. Maximum amplitudes occur at realistic latitudes, 12°–20°N, but not as observed near the Atlantic coast. Spectral analyses suggest some wave modulation of precipitation in the 5–8-day band, and compositing shows that precipitation is slightly enhanced east of the wave trough, coincident with southerly winds. Extrema of low-level convergence west of the wave troughs, coinciding with northerly winds, were not preferred areas for simulated precipitation, probably because of the drying effect of this advection, as waves were generally north of the humid zone. The documentation of African wave disturbances in the GISS GCM is a first step toward considering wave influences in future GCM studies of Sahel drought.
Abstract
The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source region is “tagged,” allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June–July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this eau study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to sahelian precipitation in the “rainy” simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.
Abstract
The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source region is “tagged,” allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June–July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this eau study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to sahelian precipitation in the “rainy” simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.
Abstract
The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent ENSO event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June–August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the ECMWF-analyzed winds, the simulators based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric subtropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific ITCZ in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.
Abstract
The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent ENSO event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June–August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the ECMWF-analyzed winds, the simulators based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric subtropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific ITCZ in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.
Abstract
Climate projections for March–April–May (MAM) 1985 and 1997 made with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM over South America on a 4° latitude by 5° longitude grid are “downscaled” to 0.5° grid spacing. This is accomplished by interpolating the GCM simulation product in time and space to create lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for synchronous nested simulations by the regional climate model (RCM) of the GISS/Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research. Both the GCM and the RCM simulations use sea surface temperature (SST) predictions based on persisted February SST anomalies. Each downscaled prediction is evaluated from an ensemble of five simulations and each is compared to a control ensemble of five RCM simulations driven by synchronous NCEP reanalysis data. An additional five-run control ensemble for MAM 1997 tests the impact of “perfect” SST predictions on the RCM forecast. Results are compared to observational evidence that includes NCEP reanalysis data, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) gridded fields, some rain gauge observations, and satellite measurements of monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation. The downscaled predictions and the downscaled analyses both capture the meridional displacement of the intertropical convergence (ITC) precipitation maximum over northern Brazil between the two seasons. The simulation of this feature for MAM 1997 is improved by using actual SST, but the correction of underestimates of eastern Brazil precipitation requires analyzed LBC in place of GCM forcing. The realism of spatial patterns and area averages of precipitation neither improves nor deteriorates with elapsed time, but the variability between individual runs forced by the same LBC decreases with time. The RCM shows a positive bias in surface temperature over central and southeastern Brazil and a positive bias in temperature at 850 mb over the Tropics. Results imply that improvements in seasonal climate prediction at the 0.5° spatial scale over Brazil could be realized by more realistic GCM forcing, accurate SST predictions, and improvements in the RCM.
Abstract
Climate projections for March–April–May (MAM) 1985 and 1997 made with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM over South America on a 4° latitude by 5° longitude grid are “downscaled” to 0.5° grid spacing. This is accomplished by interpolating the GCM simulation product in time and space to create lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for synchronous nested simulations by the regional climate model (RCM) of the GISS/Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research. Both the GCM and the RCM simulations use sea surface temperature (SST) predictions based on persisted February SST anomalies. Each downscaled prediction is evaluated from an ensemble of five simulations and each is compared to a control ensemble of five RCM simulations driven by synchronous NCEP reanalysis data. An additional five-run control ensemble for MAM 1997 tests the impact of “perfect” SST predictions on the RCM forecast. Results are compared to observational evidence that includes NCEP reanalysis data, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) gridded fields, some rain gauge observations, and satellite measurements of monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation. The downscaled predictions and the downscaled analyses both capture the meridional displacement of the intertropical convergence (ITC) precipitation maximum over northern Brazil between the two seasons. The simulation of this feature for MAM 1997 is improved by using actual SST, but the correction of underestimates of eastern Brazil precipitation requires analyzed LBC in place of GCM forcing. The realism of spatial patterns and area averages of precipitation neither improves nor deteriorates with elapsed time, but the variability between individual runs forced by the same LBC decreases with time. The RCM shows a positive bias in surface temperature over central and southeastern Brazil and a positive bias in temperature at 850 mb over the Tropics. Results imply that improvements in seasonal climate prediction at the 0.5° spatial scale over Brazil could be realized by more realistic GCM forcing, accurate SST predictions, and improvements in the RCM.
Abstract
The study analyzes observational climate data for June–August 1977–2004 and simulations of current and future climate scenarios from a nested GCM/regional climate model system to assess the potential for extreme temperature change over the eastern United States. Observational evidence indicates that anomalously warm summers in the eastern United States coincide with anomalously cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, conditions that are conducive to geopotential ridging over the east, less frequent precipitation, and lower accumulated rainfall. The study also found that days following nighttime rain are warmer on average than daytime rain events, emphasizing the importance of the timing of precipitation on the radiation balance. Precipitation frequency and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies together account for 57% of the 28-yr variance in maximum surface temperature anomalies. Simulation results show the sensitivity of maximum surface air temperature to the moist convection parameterization that is employed, since different schemes produce different diurnal cycles and frequencies of precipitation. The study suggests that, in order to accurately project scenarios of extreme temperature change, models need to realistically simulate changes in the surface energy balance caused by the interannual variation of these precipitation characteristics. The mesoscale model that was realistic in this respect predicted much warmer mean and maximum surface air temperatures for five future summers than the parallel GCM driving simulation.
Abstract
The study analyzes observational climate data for June–August 1977–2004 and simulations of current and future climate scenarios from a nested GCM/regional climate model system to assess the potential for extreme temperature change over the eastern United States. Observational evidence indicates that anomalously warm summers in the eastern United States coincide with anomalously cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, conditions that are conducive to geopotential ridging over the east, less frequent precipitation, and lower accumulated rainfall. The study also found that days following nighttime rain are warmer on average than daytime rain events, emphasizing the importance of the timing of precipitation on the radiation balance. Precipitation frequency and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies together account for 57% of the 28-yr variance in maximum surface temperature anomalies. Simulation results show the sensitivity of maximum surface air temperature to the moist convection parameterization that is employed, since different schemes produce different diurnal cycles and frequencies of precipitation. The study suggests that, in order to accurately project scenarios of extreme temperature change, models need to realistically simulate changes in the surface energy balance caused by the interannual variation of these precipitation characteristics. The mesoscale model that was realistic in this respect predicted much warmer mean and maximum surface air temperatures for five future summers than the parallel GCM driving simulation.
Abstract
The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.
Abstract
The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.