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Abstract
Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.
Abstract
Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.
Coupled global ocean–atmosphere models currently do a poor job of predicting conditions in the tropical east Pacific, and have a particularly hard time reproducing the annual cycle in this region. This poor performance is probably due to the sensitivity of the east Pacific to the inadequate representation of certain physical processes in the modeled ocean and atmosphere. The representations of deep cumulus convection, ocean mixing, and stratus region energetics are known to be problematic in such models. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program sponsored the field experiment East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System 2001 (EPIC2001), which has the goal of providing the observational basis needed to improve the representation of certain key physical processes in models.
In addition to physical processes, EPIC2001 research is directed toward a better understanding and simulation of the effects of short-term variability in the east Pacific on climate. This variability is particularly important in the region because conditions in the intertropical convergence zone are highly variable on daily to intraseasonal time scales. The effects of such variability rectify strongly onto climate time scales in this region.
Coupled global ocean–atmosphere models currently do a poor job of predicting conditions in the tropical east Pacific, and have a particularly hard time reproducing the annual cycle in this region. This poor performance is probably due to the sensitivity of the east Pacific to the inadequate representation of certain physical processes in the modeled ocean and atmosphere. The representations of deep cumulus convection, ocean mixing, and stratus region energetics are known to be problematic in such models. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program sponsored the field experiment East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System 2001 (EPIC2001), which has the goal of providing the observational basis needed to improve the representation of certain key physical processes in models.
In addition to physical processes, EPIC2001 research is directed toward a better understanding and simulation of the effects of short-term variability in the east Pacific on climate. This variability is particularly important in the region because conditions in the intertropical convergence zone are highly variable on daily to intraseasonal time scales. The effects of such variability rectify strongly onto climate time scales in this region.
