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  • Author or Editor: M. Ravichandran x
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Yuanlong Li
,
Weiqing Han
,
Wanqiu Wang
, and
M. Ravichandran

Abstract

This study investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation variations in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) induced by the northward-propagating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) through analyzing satellite observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and performing ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments. MISOs in the EAS achieve the largest intensity in the developing stage (May–June) of the ISM. The MISOs induce intraseasonal SST variability primarily through surface heat flux forcing, contributed by both shortwave radiation and turbulent heat flux, and secondarily through mixed layer entrainment. The shallow mixed layer depth (MLD < 40 m) in the developing stage and decaying stage (September–October) of the ISM significantly amplifies the heat flux forcing effect on SST and causes large intraseasonal SST variability. Meanwhile, the high SST (>29°C) in the developing stage leads to enhanced response of MISO convection to SST anomaly. It means that the ocean state of the EAS region during the developing stage favors active two-way air–sea interaction and the formation of the strong first-pulse MISO event. These results provide compelling evidence for the vital role played by the ocean in the MISO mechanisms and have implications for understanding and forecasting the ISM onset. Compared to satellite observation, MISOs in CFSR data have weaker SST variability by ~50% and biased SST–precipitation relation. Reducing these biases in CFSR, which provides initial conditions of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), may help improve the ISM rainfall forecast.

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Yuanlong Li
,
Weiqing Han
,
Wanqiu Wang
,
Lei Zhang
, and
M. Ravichandran

Abstract

Northward-propagating Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are a major origin of the active–break spells of the monsoon rainfall. Forecast results for 28 active and 27 break spells from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), during 1999–2010 are analyzed. CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the propagation of MISOs from the equator to central India, showing improvements in many aspects compared to its previous version. Systematic biases for MISOs, however, still exist, exhibiting apparently weaker amplitude and slower northward propagation compared to observations. The eastern Arabian Sea (EAS)–western Bay of Bengal (WBB) region (EAS–WBB region; 12°–20°N, 65°–85°E) is found to be critical for the MISO prediction. In that region, the forecast and observed MISO trajectories begin to bifurcate from each other, and forecast errors grow rapidly. Further diagnosis reveals that local air–sea interaction in that region is severely underrepresented in CFSv2. Sea surface temperature (SST) response to surface heat flux forcing and convection response to SST forcing are both too weak, leading to the underestimated MISO amplitude. The relationship between precipitation and SST in CFSv2 is much more chaotic than in observation. The misrepresentation of air–sea coupling results in longer MISO periods in the EAS–WBB region, manifesting as slower propagation and delayed arrival of MISOs in central India. Refining the air–sea coupling processes is crucial for improving the CFSv2 forecast. This includes taking into account the ocean skin layer, better resolving the diurnal cycle, and improving the ocean model physics.

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Vijay Pottapinjara
,
M. S. Girishkumar
,
R. Murtugudde
,
K. Ashok
, and
M. Ravichandran

Abstract

Previous studies have talked about the existence of a relation between the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) and Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) via the meridional displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic during boreal spring and the resulting cross-equatorial zonal winds. However, why the strong relation between the ITCZ (or AMM) and zonal winds does not translate into a strong relation between the ITCZ and AZM has not been explained. This question is addressed here, and it is found that there is a skewness in the relation between ITCZ and AZM: while a northward migration of ITCZ during spring in general leads to a cold AZM event in the ensuing summer, the southward migration of the ITCZ is less likely to lead to a warm event. This is contrary to what the previous studies imply. The skewness is attributed to the Atlantic seasonal cycle and to the strong seasonality of the AZM. All those cold AZM events preceded by a northward ITCZ movement during spring are found to strictly adhere to typical timings and evolution of the different Bjerknes feedback components involved. It is also observed that the causative mechanisms of warm events are more diverse than those of the cold events. These results can be expected to enhance our understanding of the AZM as well as that of chronic model biases and contribute to the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon through the links between the two as shown in our earlier studies.

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B. Praveen Kumar
,
Meghan F. Cronin
,
Sudheer Joseph
,
M. Ravichandran
, and
N. Sureshkumar

Abstract

A global analysis of latent heat flux (LHF) sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) is performed, with focus on the tropics and the north Indian Ocean (NIO). Sensitivity of LHF state variables (surface wind speed W s and vertical humidity gradients Δq) to SST give rise to mutually interacting dynamical (W s driven) and thermodynamical (Δq driven) coupled feedbacks. Generally, LHF sensitivity to SST is pronounced over tropics where SST increase causes W s q) changes, resulting in a maximum decrease (increase) of LHF by ~15 W m−2 (°C)−1. But the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Arabian Sea (NAS) remain an exception that is opposite to the global feedback relationship. This uniqueness is attributed to strong seasonality in monsoon W s and Δq variations, which brings in warm (cold) continental air mass into the BoB and NAS during summer (winter), producing a large seasonal cycle in air–sea temperature difference ΔT (and hence in Δq). In other tropical oceans, surface air is mostly of marine origin and blows from colder to warmer waters, resulting in a constant ΔT ~ 1°C throughout the year, and hence a constant Δq. Thus, unlike other basins, when the BoB and NAS are warming, air temperature warms faster than SST. The resultant decrease in ΔT and Δq contributes to decrease the LHF with increased SST, contrary to other basins. This analysis suggests that, in the NIO, LHF variability is largely controlled by thermodynamic processes, which peak during the monsoon period. These observed LHF sensitivities are then used to speculate how the surface energetics and coupled feedbacks may change in a warmer world.

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R. A. Weller
,
J. T. Farrar
,
Hyodae Seo
,
Channing Prend
,
Debasis Sengupta
,
J. Sree Lekha
,
M. Ravichandran
, and
R. Venkatesen

Abstract

Time series of surface meteorology and air–sea fluxes from the northern Bay of Bengal are analyzed, quantifying annual and seasonal means, variability, and the potential for surface fluxes to contribute significantly to variability in surface temperature and salinity. Strong signals were associated with solar insolation and its modulation by cloud cover, and, in the 5- to 50-day range, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The northeast (NE) monsoon (DJF) was typically cloud free, with strong latent heat loss and several moderate wind events, and had the only seasonal mean ocean heat loss. The spring intermonsoon (MAM) was cloud free and had light winds and the strongest ocean heating. Strong ISOs and Tropical Cyclone Komen were seen in the southwest (SW) monsoon (JJA), when 65% of the 2.2-m total rain fell, and oceanic mean heating was small. The fall intermonsoon (SON) initially had moderate convective systems and mean ocean heating, with a transition to drier winds and mean ocean heat loss in the last month. Observed surface freshwater flux applied to a layer of the observed thickness produced drops in salinity with timing and magnitude similar to the initial drops in salinity in the summer monsoon, but did not reproduce the salinity variability of the fall intermonsoon. Observed surface heat flux has the potential to cause the temperature trends of the different seasons, but uncertainty in how shortwave radiation is absorbed in the upper ocean limits quantifying the role of surface forcing in the evolution of mixed layer temperature.

Open access