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Yalin Fan, Shian-Jiann Lin, Stephen M. Griffies, and Mark A. Hemer

Abstract

The seasonal structure of the wind sea and swell is analyzed from the existing 29-yr surface gravity wave climatology produced using a coupled atmosphere–wave model. The swell energy fraction analysis shows that swell dominates most of the World Ocean basins for all four seasons, and the Southern Ocean swells dominate swell in the global ocean. The swells are loosely correlated with the surface wind in the midlatitude storm region in both hemispheres, while their energy distribution and propagation direction do not show any relation with local winds and vary significantly with season because of nonlinear interactions. The same coupled system is then used to investigate the projected future change in wind-sea and swell climate through a time-slice simulation. Forcing of the coupled model was obtained by perturbing the model sea surface temperatures and sea ice with anomalies generated by representative Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) coupled models that use the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A1B scenario late in the twenty-first century. Robust responses found in the wind seas are associated with modified climate indices. A dipole pattern in the North Atlantic during the boreal winter is associated with more frequent occurrence of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases under global warming, and the wind-sea energy increase in the Southern Ocean is associated with the continuous shift of the southern annular mode (SAM) toward its positive phase. Swell responses are less robust because of nonlinearity. The only consistent response in swells is the strong energy increase in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean during the austral winter and autumn.

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Diana Greenslade, Mark Hemer, Alex Babanin, Ryan Lowe, Ian Turner, Hannah Power, Ian Young, Daniel Ierodiaconou, Greg Hibbert, Greg Williams, Saima Aijaz, João Albuquerque, Stewart Allen, Michael Banner, Paul Branson, Steve Buchan, Andrew Burton, John Bye, Nick Cartwright, Amin Chabchoub, Frank Colberg, Stephanie Contardo, Francois Dufois, Craig Earl-Spurr, David Farr, Ian Goodwin, Jim Gunson, Jeff Hansen, David Hanslow, Mitchell Harley, Yasha Hetzel, Ron Hoeke, Nicole Jones, Michael Kinsela, Qingxiang Liu, Oleg Makarynskyy, Hayden Marcollo, Said Mazaheri, Jason McConochie, Grant Millar, Tim Moltmann, Neal Moodie, Joao Morim, Russel Morison, Jana Orszaghova, Charitha Pattiaratchi, Andrew Pomeroy, Roger Proctor, David Provis, Ruth Reef, Dirk Rijnsdorp, Martin Rutherford, Eric Schulz, Jake Shayer, Kristen Splinter, Craig Steinberg, Darrell Strauss, Greg Stuart, Graham Symonds, Karina Tarbath, Daniel Taylor, James Taylor, Darshani Thotagamuwage, Alessandro Toffoli, Alireza Valizadeh, Jonathan van Hazel, Guilherme Vieira da Silva, Moritz Wandres, Colin Whittaker, David Williams, Gundula Winter, Jiangtao Xu, Aihong Zhong, and Stefan Zieger
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Diana Greenslade, Mark Hemer, Alex Babanin, Ryan Lowe, Ian Turner, Hannah Power, Ian Young, Daniel Ierodiaconou, Greg Hibbert, Greg Williams, Saima Aijaz, João Albuquerque, Stewart Allen, Michael Banner, Paul Branson, Steve Buchan, Andrew Burton, John Bye, Nick Cartwright, Amin Chabchoub, Frank Colberg, Stephanie Contardo, Francois Dufois, Craig Earl-Spurr, David Farr, Ian Goodwin, Jim Gunson, Jeff Hansen, David Hanslow, Mitchell Harley, Yasha Hetzel, Ron Hoeke, Nicole Jones, Michael Kinsela, Qingxiang Liu, Oleg Makarynskyy, Hayden Marcollo, Said Mazaheri, Jason McConochie, Grant Millar, Tim Moltmann, Neal Moodie, Joao Morim, Russel Morison, Jana Orszaghova, Charitha Pattiaratchi, Andrew Pomeroy, Roger Proctor, David Provis, Ruth Reef, Dirk Rijnsdorp, Martin Rutherford, Eric Schulz, Jake Shayer, Kristen Splinter, Craig Steinberg, Darrell Strauss, Greg Stuart, Graham Symonds, Karina Tarbath, Daniel Taylor, James Taylor, Darshani Thotagamuwage, Alessandro Toffoli, Alireza Valizadeh, Jonathan van Hazel, Guilherme Vieira da Silva, Moritz Wandres, Colin Whittaker, David Williams, Gundula Winter, Jiangtao Xu, Aihong Zhong, and Stefan Zieger

Abstract

The Australian marine research, industry, and stakeholder community has recently undertaken an extensive collaborative process to identify the highest national priorities for wind-waves research. This was undertaken under the auspices of the Forum for Operational Oceanography Surface Waves Working Group. The main steps in the process were first, soliciting possible research questions from the community via an online survey; second, reviewing the questions at a face-to-face workshop; and third, online ranking of the research questions by individuals. This process resulted in 15 identified priorities, covering research activities and the development of infrastructure. The top five priorities are 1) enhanced and updated nearshore and coastal bathymetry; 2) improved understanding of extreme sea states; 3) maintain and enhance the in situ buoy network; 4) improved data access and sharing; and 5) ensemble and probabilistic wave modeling and forecasting. In this paper, each of the 15 priorities is discussed in detail, providing insight into why each priority is important, and the current state of the art, both nationally and internationally, where relevant. While this process has been driven by Australian needs, it is likely that the results will be relevant to other marine-focused nations.

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