Search Results
You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :
- Author or Editor: Marshall Shepherd x
- Journal of Hydrometeorology x
- Refine by Access: All Content x
Abstract
In October 2010, the water level upstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) reached the designated 175-m level. The associated inundation and land use–land cover changes have important implications for water resource management, agriculture, ecosystems, and the hydroclimate. Ultimately, it is important to quantify whether the dam-related changes have altered precipitation patterns. Since rain gauges are limited in the region, satellite-based methods are viable. This study is the first to validate NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data from 1998 to 2009 using 34 national meteorological rain gauges in the Three Gorges region. Areal average satellite estimates are first verified with areal average rain gauge data both annually and seasonally. Then based on empirical orthogonal functions, the study area is divided into two subregions, and similar validation procedures are performed for both subregions. TMPA data are found to have high correlations with rain gauge data for the whole study area, and correlations for the subregions are only slightly lower. The seasonal analysis yields the lowest correlations for winter. Compared with the gauge data, rainfall is slightly overestimated by about 3 mm month−1. At daily scale, satellite data show good agreement with gauge data for all rain intensity categories except light rain (<1 mm day−1). Spatially, the point-source gauge data are gridded using Thiessen polygons for comparison with satellite data, and the results suggest the satellite-based product may overestimate rainfall in mountainous areas near the reservoir, especially in spring and summer. Overall, the validation results yield strong statistical support for applying satellite rainfall data for hydroclimate studies in this region.
Abstract
In October 2010, the water level upstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) reached the designated 175-m level. The associated inundation and land use–land cover changes have important implications for water resource management, agriculture, ecosystems, and the hydroclimate. Ultimately, it is important to quantify whether the dam-related changes have altered precipitation patterns. Since rain gauges are limited in the region, satellite-based methods are viable. This study is the first to validate NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data from 1998 to 2009 using 34 national meteorological rain gauges in the Three Gorges region. Areal average satellite estimates are first verified with areal average rain gauge data both annually and seasonally. Then based on empirical orthogonal functions, the study area is divided into two subregions, and similar validation procedures are performed for both subregions. TMPA data are found to have high correlations with rain gauge data for the whole study area, and correlations for the subregions are only slightly lower. The seasonal analysis yields the lowest correlations for winter. Compared with the gauge data, rainfall is slightly overestimated by about 3 mm month−1. At daily scale, satellite data show good agreement with gauge data for all rain intensity categories except light rain (<1 mm day−1). Spatially, the point-source gauge data are gridded using Thiessen polygons for comparison with satellite data, and the results suggest the satellite-based product may overestimate rainfall in mountainous areas near the reservoir, especially in spring and summer. Overall, the validation results yield strong statistical support for applying satellite rainfall data for hydroclimate studies in this region.
Abstract
The 2009 Atlanta flood was a historic event that resulted in catastrophic damage throughout the metropolitan area. The flood was the product of several hydrometeorological processes, including moist antecedent conditions, ample atmospheric moisture, and mesoscale training. Additionally, previous studies hypothesized that the urban environment of Atlanta altered the location and/or overall quantities of precipitation and runoff that ultimately produced the flood. This hypothesis was quantitatively evaluated by conducting a modeling case study that utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Two model runs were performed: 1) an urban run designed to accurately depict the flood event and 2) a nonurban simulation where the urban footprint of Atlanta was replaced with natural vegetation. Comparing the output from the two simulations revealed that interactions with the urban environment enhanced the precipitation and runoff associated with the flood. Specifically, the nonurban model underestimated the cumulative precipitation by approximately 100 mm in the area downwind of Atlanta where urban rainfall enhancement was hypothesized. This notable difference was due to the increased surface convergence observed in the urban simulation, which was likely attributable to the enhanced surface roughness and thermal properties of the urban environment. The findings expand upon previous research focused on urban rainfall effects since they demonstrate that urban interactions can influence mesoscale hydrometeorological characteristics during events with prominent synoptic-scale forcing. Finally, from an urban planning perspective, the results highlight a potential two-pronged vulnerability of urban environments to extreme rainfall, as they may enhance both the initial precipitation and subsequent runoff.
Abstract
The 2009 Atlanta flood was a historic event that resulted in catastrophic damage throughout the metropolitan area. The flood was the product of several hydrometeorological processes, including moist antecedent conditions, ample atmospheric moisture, and mesoscale training. Additionally, previous studies hypothesized that the urban environment of Atlanta altered the location and/or overall quantities of precipitation and runoff that ultimately produced the flood. This hypothesis was quantitatively evaluated by conducting a modeling case study that utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Two model runs were performed: 1) an urban run designed to accurately depict the flood event and 2) a nonurban simulation where the urban footprint of Atlanta was replaced with natural vegetation. Comparing the output from the two simulations revealed that interactions with the urban environment enhanced the precipitation and runoff associated with the flood. Specifically, the nonurban model underestimated the cumulative precipitation by approximately 100 mm in the area downwind of Atlanta where urban rainfall enhancement was hypothesized. This notable difference was due to the increased surface convergence observed in the urban simulation, which was likely attributable to the enhanced surface roughness and thermal properties of the urban environment. The findings expand upon previous research focused on urban rainfall effects since they demonstrate that urban interactions can influence mesoscale hydrometeorological characteristics during events with prominent synoptic-scale forcing. Finally, from an urban planning perspective, the results highlight a potential two-pronged vulnerability of urban environments to extreme rainfall, as they may enhance both the initial precipitation and subsequent runoff.
Abstract
An investigation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the brown ocean effect (BOE) and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for landfalling TCs in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e., all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all landfalling TCs.
Abstract
An investigation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the brown ocean effect (BOE) and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for landfalling TCs in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e., all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all landfalling TCs.
Abstract
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often decay rapidly due to a decrease in moisture and energy fluxes over land when compared to the ocean surface. Occasionally, however, these cyclones maintain intensity or reintensify over land. Post-landfall maintenance and intensification of TCs over land may be a result of fluxes of moisture and energy derived from anomalously wet soils. These soils act similarly to a warm sea surface, in a phenomenon coined the “brown ocean effect.” Tropical Storm (TS) Bill (2015) made landfall over a region previously moistened by anomalously heavy rainfall and displayed periods of reintensification and maintenance over land. This study evaluates the role of the brown ocean effect on the observed maintenance and intensification of TS Bill using a combination of existing and novel approaches, including the evaluation of precursor conditions at varying temporal scales and making use of composite backward trajectories. Comparisons were made to landfalling TCs with similar paths that did not undergo TC maintenance and/or intensification (TCMI) as well as to TS Erin (2007), a known TCMI case. We show that the antecedent environment prior to TS Bill was similar to other known TCMI cases, but drastically different from the non-TCMI cases analyzed in this study. Furthermore, we show that contributions of evapotranspiration to the overall water vapor budget were nonnegligible prior to TCMI cases and that evapotranspiration along storm inflow was significantly (p < 0.05) greater for TCMI cases than non-TCMI cases suggesting a potential upstream contribution from the land surface.
Abstract
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often decay rapidly due to a decrease in moisture and energy fluxes over land when compared to the ocean surface. Occasionally, however, these cyclones maintain intensity or reintensify over land. Post-landfall maintenance and intensification of TCs over land may be a result of fluxes of moisture and energy derived from anomalously wet soils. These soils act similarly to a warm sea surface, in a phenomenon coined the “brown ocean effect.” Tropical Storm (TS) Bill (2015) made landfall over a region previously moistened by anomalously heavy rainfall and displayed periods of reintensification and maintenance over land. This study evaluates the role of the brown ocean effect on the observed maintenance and intensification of TS Bill using a combination of existing and novel approaches, including the evaluation of precursor conditions at varying temporal scales and making use of composite backward trajectories. Comparisons were made to landfalling TCs with similar paths that did not undergo TC maintenance and/or intensification (TCMI) as well as to TS Erin (2007), a known TCMI case. We show that the antecedent environment prior to TS Bill was similar to other known TCMI cases, but drastically different from the non-TCMI cases analyzed in this study. Furthermore, we show that contributions of evapotranspiration to the overall water vapor budget were nonnegligible prior to TCMI cases and that evapotranspiration along storm inflow was significantly (p < 0.05) greater for TCMI cases than non-TCMI cases suggesting a potential upstream contribution from the land surface.
Abstract
Tropical Storm Bill produced over 400 mm of rainfall in portions of southern Oklahoma from 16 to 20 June 2015, adding to the catastrophic urban and river flooding that occurred throughout the region in the month prior to landfall. The unprecedented excessive precipitation event that occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during May and June 2015 resulted in anomalously high soil moisture and latent heat fluxes over the region, acting to increase the available boundary layer moisture. Tropical Storm Bill progressed inland over the region of anomalous soil moisture and latent heat fluxes, which helped maintain polarimetric radar signatures associated with tropical, warm rain events. Vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables such as Z H , Z DR, K DP, and ρ hv were analyzed in time and space over Texas and Oklahoma. The profiles suggest that Tropical Storm Bill maintained warm rain signatures and collision–coalescence processes as it tracked hundreds of kilometers inland away from the landfall point consistent with tropical cyclone precipitation characteristics. Dual-frequency precipitation radar observations from the NASA GPM DPR were also analyzed post-landfall and showed similar signatures of collision–coalescence while Bill moved over north Texas, southern Oklahoma, eastern Missouri, and western Kentucky.
Abstract
Tropical Storm Bill produced over 400 mm of rainfall in portions of southern Oklahoma from 16 to 20 June 2015, adding to the catastrophic urban and river flooding that occurred throughout the region in the month prior to landfall. The unprecedented excessive precipitation event that occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during May and June 2015 resulted in anomalously high soil moisture and latent heat fluxes over the region, acting to increase the available boundary layer moisture. Tropical Storm Bill progressed inland over the region of anomalous soil moisture and latent heat fluxes, which helped maintain polarimetric radar signatures associated with tropical, warm rain events. Vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables such as Z H , Z DR, K DP, and ρ hv were analyzed in time and space over Texas and Oklahoma. The profiles suggest that Tropical Storm Bill maintained warm rain signatures and collision–coalescence processes as it tracked hundreds of kilometers inland away from the landfall point consistent with tropical cyclone precipitation characteristics. Dual-frequency precipitation radar observations from the NASA GPM DPR were also analyzed post-landfall and showed similar signatures of collision–coalescence while Bill moved over north Texas, southern Oklahoma, eastern Missouri, and western Kentucky.
