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- Author or Editor: Michael J. Foster x
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Abstract
During the spring of 1995, an operational forecast experiment using a three-dimensional cloud model was carried out for the north Texas region. Gridpoint soundings were obtained from the daily operational numerical weather prediction models run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and these soundings were then used to initialize a limited-domain cloud-resolving model in an attempt to predict convective storm type and morphology in a timely manner. The results indicate that this type of convective forecast may be useful in the operational environment, despite several limitations associated with this methodology. One interesting result from the experiment is that while the gridpoint soundings obtained from the NCEP models generally overforecast instability and vertical wind shear, the resulting convective storm evolution and morphology in the cloud model was often similar to that of the observed storms. Therefore the “overforecast” of mesoscale environment’s instability and vertical wind shear still resulted in a thunderstorm-scale forecast that provided useful information to operational forecasters.
Abstract
During the spring of 1995, an operational forecast experiment using a three-dimensional cloud model was carried out for the north Texas region. Gridpoint soundings were obtained from the daily operational numerical weather prediction models run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and these soundings were then used to initialize a limited-domain cloud-resolving model in an attempt to predict convective storm type and morphology in a timely manner. The results indicate that this type of convective forecast may be useful in the operational environment, despite several limitations associated with this methodology. One interesting result from the experiment is that while the gridpoint soundings obtained from the NCEP models generally overforecast instability and vertical wind shear, the resulting convective storm evolution and morphology in the cloud model was often similar to that of the observed storms. Therefore the “overforecast” of mesoscale environment’s instability and vertical wind shear still resulted in a thunderstorm-scale forecast that provided useful information to operational forecasters.
Abstract
To test the utility and added value of polarimetric radar products in an operational environment, data from the Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) were delivered to the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Norman as part of the Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE). KOUN polarimetric base data and algorithms were used at the WFO during the decision-making and forecasting processes for severe convection, flash floods, and winter storms. The delivery included conventional WSR-88D radar products, base polarimetric radar variables, a polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm, and experimental polarimetric quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms. The JPOLE data collection, delivery, and operational demonstration are described, with examples of several forecast and warning decision-making successes. Polarimetric data aided WFO forecasters during several periods of heavy rain, numerous large-hail-producing thunderstorms, tornadic and nontornadic supercell thunderstorms, and a major winter storm. Upcoming opportunities and challenges associated with the emergence of polarimetric radar data in the operational community are also described.
Abstract
To test the utility and added value of polarimetric radar products in an operational environment, data from the Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) were delivered to the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Norman as part of the Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE). KOUN polarimetric base data and algorithms were used at the WFO during the decision-making and forecasting processes for severe convection, flash floods, and winter storms. The delivery included conventional WSR-88D radar products, base polarimetric radar variables, a polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm, and experimental polarimetric quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms. The JPOLE data collection, delivery, and operational demonstration are described, with examples of several forecast and warning decision-making successes. Polarimetric data aided WFO forecasters during several periods of heavy rain, numerous large-hail-producing thunderstorms, tornadic and nontornadic supercell thunderstorms, and a major winter storm. Upcoming opportunities and challenges associated with the emergence of polarimetric radar data in the operational community are also described.
