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- Author or Editor: Nathaniel L. Bindoff x
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Abstract
Observed changes in temperature and salinity properties on isopycnals across hydrographic sections throughout the Indo-Pacific are compared with the changes modeled by the coupled climate model, HadCM3. Observations show cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, and there is quantitative agreement between modeled and observed water mass changes on five out of six zonal sections. The full Indo-Pacific pattern of change in the climate model is examined and it is discovered that the pattern of cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, with warming on isopycnals at high latitudes, may be thought of as a fingerprint of anthropogenic forcing. The water mass changes are related to changes in the surface fluxes and it is found that surface warming is the dominant factor in producing water mass changes, although changes in the freshwater cycle are important in the formation zone for Antarctic Intermediate Water. The coupled model has a low-amplitude, low-frequency (100-yr period) internal mode related to the anthropogenic fingerprint. Further observations are required to measure the amplitude of the internal mode as well as the anthropogenically forced mode.
Abstract
Observed changes in temperature and salinity properties on isopycnals across hydrographic sections throughout the Indo-Pacific are compared with the changes modeled by the coupled climate model, HadCM3. Observations show cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, and there is quantitative agreement between modeled and observed water mass changes on five out of six zonal sections. The full Indo-Pacific pattern of change in the climate model is examined and it is discovered that the pattern of cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, with warming on isopycnals at high latitudes, may be thought of as a fingerprint of anthropogenic forcing. The water mass changes are related to changes in the surface fluxes and it is found that surface warming is the dominant factor in producing water mass changes, although changes in the freshwater cycle are important in the formation zone for Antarctic Intermediate Water. The coupled model has a low-amplitude, low-frequency (100-yr period) internal mode related to the anthropogenic fingerprint. Further observations are required to measure the amplitude of the internal mode as well as the anthropogenically forced mode.
Abstract
The spatial and temporal variability of the southwest Pacific Ocean is examined with the aim of describing the physical processes operating on interannual and decadal timescales. The study takes advantage of a new temperature atlas of the upper 450 m of the southwest Pacific Ocean, obtained from 40 000 bathythermograph profiles between 1955 and 1988. Rotated principal components analysis was used to filter the important spatial and temporal scales of temperature variability in the data. Three different analyses are presented. They include two intraocean analyses and a joint analysis of subsurface ocean temperature, sea level pressure, and surface winds.
The dominant El Niño mode describes the large vertical excursions of the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific in response to atmospheric forcing at a 3–6-month lag. More importantly, most of the retained modes, outside of the equatorial region, have time variations that correlate with El Niño. One ocean mode, with a spatial pattern representing sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Coral Sea (linked to the interannual migration of the South Pacific convergence zone), correlates significantly with (at the 99% level) and leads (by 3–6 months) the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), suggesting that sea surface temperature anomalies in this region may be a useful indicator for the onset of El Niño. A separate mode whose spatial pattern corresponds to the main oceanographic gyre also shows statistically significant temperature variations in phase with, or slightly leading, the SOI.
The main decadal variations occur in the midlatitudes, in the subtropical gyre, and in another mode associated with sub-Antarctic mode water (SAMW). The subtropical gyre warmed to a maximum in the mid-1970s and has been cooling since. In the SAMW a long-term warming of the upper 100 m of the southwest Tasman Sea is identified between 1955 and 1988. The depth-integrated warming in this region is found to be about 0.015°C yr−1, representing a contribution to sea level rise, through thermal expansion, of about 0.3 mm yr−1.
Abstract
The spatial and temporal variability of the southwest Pacific Ocean is examined with the aim of describing the physical processes operating on interannual and decadal timescales. The study takes advantage of a new temperature atlas of the upper 450 m of the southwest Pacific Ocean, obtained from 40 000 bathythermograph profiles between 1955 and 1988. Rotated principal components analysis was used to filter the important spatial and temporal scales of temperature variability in the data. Three different analyses are presented. They include two intraocean analyses and a joint analysis of subsurface ocean temperature, sea level pressure, and surface winds.
The dominant El Niño mode describes the large vertical excursions of the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific in response to atmospheric forcing at a 3–6-month lag. More importantly, most of the retained modes, outside of the equatorial region, have time variations that correlate with El Niño. One ocean mode, with a spatial pattern representing sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Coral Sea (linked to the interannual migration of the South Pacific convergence zone), correlates significantly with (at the 99% level) and leads (by 3–6 months) the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), suggesting that sea surface temperature anomalies in this region may be a useful indicator for the onset of El Niño. A separate mode whose spatial pattern corresponds to the main oceanographic gyre also shows statistically significant temperature variations in phase with, or slightly leading, the SOI.
The main decadal variations occur in the midlatitudes, in the subtropical gyre, and in another mode associated with sub-Antarctic mode water (SAMW). The subtropical gyre warmed to a maximum in the mid-1970s and has been cooling since. In the SAMW a long-term warming of the upper 100 m of the southwest Tasman Sea is identified between 1955 and 1988. The depth-integrated warming in this region is found to be about 0.015°C yr−1, representing a contribution to sea level rise, through thermal expansion, of about 0.3 mm yr−1.
Abstract
Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, a detection analysis is performed to determine whether observed trends in Southern Ocean sea ice extent since 1979 are outside the expected range of natural variability. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that for the seasons of maximum sea ice cover (i.e., winter and early spring), the observed trends are not outside the range of natural variability and in some West Antarctic sectors they may be partially due to tropical variability. However, when information about the spatial pattern of trends is included in the analysis, the summer and autumn trends fall outside the range of internal variability. The detectable signal is dominated by strong and opposing trends in the Ross Sea and the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea regions. In contrast to the observed pattern, an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 coupled climate models shows that a decrease in Ross Sea ice cover would be expected in response to external forcings. The simulated decreases in the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Seas for the autumn season are significantly different from unforced internal variability at the 95% confidence level. Unlike earlier work, the authors formally show that the simulated sea ice response to external forcing is different from both the observed trends and simulated internal variability and conclude that in general the CMIP5 models do not adequately represent the forced response of the Antarctic climate system.
Abstract
Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, a detection analysis is performed to determine whether observed trends in Southern Ocean sea ice extent since 1979 are outside the expected range of natural variability. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that for the seasons of maximum sea ice cover (i.e., winter and early spring), the observed trends are not outside the range of natural variability and in some West Antarctic sectors they may be partially due to tropical variability. However, when information about the spatial pattern of trends is included in the analysis, the summer and autumn trends fall outside the range of internal variability. The detectable signal is dominated by strong and opposing trends in the Ross Sea and the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea regions. In contrast to the observed pattern, an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 coupled climate models shows that a decrease in Ross Sea ice cover would be expected in response to external forcings. The simulated decreases in the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Seas for the autumn season are significantly different from unforced internal variability at the 95% confidence level. Unlike earlier work, the authors formally show that the simulated sea ice response to external forcing is different from both the observed trends and simulated internal variability and conclude that in general the CMIP5 models do not adequately represent the forced response of the Antarctic climate system.
Abstract
A multimodel comparison method is used to assess the sensitivity of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation to climate change. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario (where atmospheric CO2 is 860 ppm at 2100), the models show cooling and freshening on density surfaces less than about 27.4 kg m−3, a pattern that has been observed in the late twentieth century. SAMW (defined by the low potential vorticity layer) and AAIW (defined by the salinity minimum layer) warm and freshen as they shift to lighter density classes. Heat and freshwater fluxes at the ocean surface dominate the projected buoyancy gain at outcrop regions of SAMW and AAIW, whereas the net increase in the Ekman flux of heat and freshwater contributes to a lesser extent. This buoyancy gain, combined with shoaling of the winter mixed layer, reduces the volume of SAMW subducted into the ocean interior by a mean of 8 Sv (12%), and the subduction of AAIW decreases by a mean of 14 Sv (23%; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Decreases in the projected subduction of the key Southern Ocean upper-water masses imply a slow down in the Southern Ocean circulation in the future, driven by surface warming and freshening. A reduction in the subduction of intermediate waters implies a likely future decrease in the capacity of the Southern Ocean to sequester CO2.
Abstract
A multimodel comparison method is used to assess the sensitivity of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation to climate change. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario (where atmospheric CO2 is 860 ppm at 2100), the models show cooling and freshening on density surfaces less than about 27.4 kg m−3, a pattern that has been observed in the late twentieth century. SAMW (defined by the low potential vorticity layer) and AAIW (defined by the salinity minimum layer) warm and freshen as they shift to lighter density classes. Heat and freshwater fluxes at the ocean surface dominate the projected buoyancy gain at outcrop regions of SAMW and AAIW, whereas the net increase in the Ekman flux of heat and freshwater contributes to a lesser extent. This buoyancy gain, combined with shoaling of the winter mixed layer, reduces the volume of SAMW subducted into the ocean interior by a mean of 8 Sv (12%), and the subduction of AAIW decreases by a mean of 14 Sv (23%; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Decreases in the projected subduction of the key Southern Ocean upper-water masses imply a slow down in the Southern Ocean circulation in the future, driven by surface warming and freshening. A reduction in the subduction of intermediate waters implies a likely future decrease in the capacity of the Southern Ocean to sequester CO2.
Abstract
Comparisons of hydrographic conditions in the North and South Pacific Oceans in the 1960s and 1985–94 have been made along five World Ocean Circulation Experiment sections. Below the seasonal mixed layer, statistically significant temporal differences in salinity and temperature have been detected in the water masses that occur in the upper 2000 dbar of the water column. These water mass property differences have been used to estimate the freshwater and heat storage trends in the Pacific over the study period. Along 24°N, 10°N, and 17°S, where either North Pacific Intermediate Water or Antarctic Intermediate Water is present, the upper waters have increased in salinity, while the intermediate and deep waters have decreased in salinity. Although the depth-integrated salinity changes observed along these sections are small, the regional redistribution of freshwater associated with the water mass changes is significant and implies significant redistribution of surface freshwater fluxes over the Pacific. Heat loss has occurred along 47°N and 17°S, but significant warming has occurred along 24° and 10°N, giving the Pacific a net heat gain of 1.79 × 108 J m−2. The resulting steric sea level change for the area in the Pacific between 60°N and 31.5°S over the roughly 20-yr study period is estimated to be a rise of 0.85 mm yr−1, consistent with those in existing literature, but larger than that estimated from numerical models reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Second Assessment Report.
Abstract
Comparisons of hydrographic conditions in the North and South Pacific Oceans in the 1960s and 1985–94 have been made along five World Ocean Circulation Experiment sections. Below the seasonal mixed layer, statistically significant temporal differences in salinity and temperature have been detected in the water masses that occur in the upper 2000 dbar of the water column. These water mass property differences have been used to estimate the freshwater and heat storage trends in the Pacific over the study period. Along 24°N, 10°N, and 17°S, where either North Pacific Intermediate Water or Antarctic Intermediate Water is present, the upper waters have increased in salinity, while the intermediate and deep waters have decreased in salinity. Although the depth-integrated salinity changes observed along these sections are small, the regional redistribution of freshwater associated with the water mass changes is significant and implies significant redistribution of surface freshwater fluxes over the Pacific. Heat loss has occurred along 47°N and 17°S, but significant warming has occurred along 24° and 10°N, giving the Pacific a net heat gain of 1.79 × 108 J m−2. The resulting steric sea level change for the area in the Pacific between 60°N and 31.5°S over the roughly 20-yr study period is estimated to be a rise of 0.85 mm yr−1, consistent with those in existing literature, but larger than that estimated from numerical models reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Second Assessment Report.
Abstract
Changes in the temperature, salinity, and subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) between the 1950s and 2090s are diagnosed using the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5) climate system model Caps under a CO2 forcing that reaches 860 ppm by the year 2100. These Southern Ocean upper-limb water masses ventilate the ocean interior, and changes in their properties have been related to climate change in numerous studies. Over time, the authors follow the low potential vorticity and salinity minimum layers describing SAMW and AAIW and find that the water column in the 2090s shifts to lighter densities by approximately 0.2 kg m−3. The model projects a reduction in the SAMW and AAIW annual mean subduction rates as a result of a combination of a shallower mixed layer, increased potential vorticity at the base of the mixed layer, and a net buoyancy gain. There is little change in the projected total volume of SAMW transported into the ocean interior via the subduction process; however, the authors find a significant decrease in the subduction of AAIW. The authors find overall that increases in the air–sea surface heat and freshwater fluxes mainly control the reduction in the mean loss of the SAMW and AAIW surface buoyancy flux when compared with the effect of changes supplied by Ekman transport because of increased zonal wind stress. In the A2 scenario, there are cooling and freshening on neutral density surfaces less than 27.3 kg m−3 in response to the warming and freshening observed at the ocean’s surface. The model projects deepening of density surfaces due to southward shifts in the outcrop regions and the downward displacement of these surfaces north of 45°S. The volume transport across 32°S is predicted to decrease in all three basins, with southward transport of SAMW and AAIW decreasing by up to 1.2 and 2.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively, in the Indian Ocean. These projected reductions in the subduction and transport of mode and intermediate water masses in the CSIRO Mk3.5 model could potentially decrease the absorption and storage of CO2 in the Southern Ocean.
Abstract
Changes in the temperature, salinity, and subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) between the 1950s and 2090s are diagnosed using the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5) climate system model Caps under a CO2 forcing that reaches 860 ppm by the year 2100. These Southern Ocean upper-limb water masses ventilate the ocean interior, and changes in their properties have been related to climate change in numerous studies. Over time, the authors follow the low potential vorticity and salinity minimum layers describing SAMW and AAIW and find that the water column in the 2090s shifts to lighter densities by approximately 0.2 kg m−3. The model projects a reduction in the SAMW and AAIW annual mean subduction rates as a result of a combination of a shallower mixed layer, increased potential vorticity at the base of the mixed layer, and a net buoyancy gain. There is little change in the projected total volume of SAMW transported into the ocean interior via the subduction process; however, the authors find a significant decrease in the subduction of AAIW. The authors find overall that increases in the air–sea surface heat and freshwater fluxes mainly control the reduction in the mean loss of the SAMW and AAIW surface buoyancy flux when compared with the effect of changes supplied by Ekman transport because of increased zonal wind stress. In the A2 scenario, there are cooling and freshening on neutral density surfaces less than 27.3 kg m−3 in response to the warming and freshening observed at the ocean’s surface. The model projects deepening of density surfaces due to southward shifts in the outcrop regions and the downward displacement of these surfaces north of 45°S. The volume transport across 32°S is predicted to decrease in all three basins, with southward transport of SAMW and AAIW decreasing by up to 1.2 and 2.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively, in the Indian Ocean. These projected reductions in the subduction and transport of mode and intermediate water masses in the CSIRO Mk3.5 model could potentially decrease the absorption and storage of CO2 in the Southern Ocean.
Abstract
A near-global ocean model with resolution enhanced in the southern Indian Ocean has been spun up to seasonal equilibrium and then driven by NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 1 monthly mean forcings and Hadley SSTs over the period 1948–2002. The aim was to simulate changes in the subsurface properties observed in hydrographic surveys at 32°S in the Indian Ocean in 1965, 1987, and 2002. These surveys showed a zonally averaged cooling on isopycnals of 0.5° and 0.3°C in mode and intermediate waters between 1965 and 1987 and a warming of the mode water coupled with a continued cooling of the intermediate water between 1987 and 2002. The major changes in isopycnal depth and temperature modeled in this study were confined to the mode water and were qualitatively similar to those observed but concentrated in a lower density class and in the eastern half of the section. The dominant changes here were multidecadal, with maximum temperatures on the σθ = 26.7 kg m−3 isopycnal being reached in 1968 and minimum temperatures in 1990. The simulations showed a propagation of interannual anomalies toward the section from a region of deep late winter mixed layers in the southeast Indian Ocean within a period of several years. Surface temperatures in this region were lowest in the 1960s and highest in the late 1980s. Temperatures on isopycnals showed the opposite variation, consistent with SST having the controlling effect on mixed layer density and depth. Isopycnal depths within the mode water were strongly correlated with temperature, implying a redistribution of mode water density classes, the greatest volume of mode water being produced in a higher density class (σθ = 26.8–27.0 kg m–3) during the period of cooler surface forcing in the 1960s and 1970s than during the warmer period following (σθ = 26.6–26.8 kg m–3).
Abstract
A near-global ocean model with resolution enhanced in the southern Indian Ocean has been spun up to seasonal equilibrium and then driven by NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 1 monthly mean forcings and Hadley SSTs over the period 1948–2002. The aim was to simulate changes in the subsurface properties observed in hydrographic surveys at 32°S in the Indian Ocean in 1965, 1987, and 2002. These surveys showed a zonally averaged cooling on isopycnals of 0.5° and 0.3°C in mode and intermediate waters between 1965 and 1987 and a warming of the mode water coupled with a continued cooling of the intermediate water between 1987 and 2002. The major changes in isopycnal depth and temperature modeled in this study were confined to the mode water and were qualitatively similar to those observed but concentrated in a lower density class and in the eastern half of the section. The dominant changes here were multidecadal, with maximum temperatures on the σθ = 26.7 kg m−3 isopycnal being reached in 1968 and minimum temperatures in 1990. The simulations showed a propagation of interannual anomalies toward the section from a region of deep late winter mixed layers in the southeast Indian Ocean within a period of several years. Surface temperatures in this region were lowest in the 1960s and highest in the late 1980s. Temperatures on isopycnals showed the opposite variation, consistent with SST having the controlling effect on mixed layer density and depth. Isopycnal depths within the mode water were strongly correlated with temperature, implying a redistribution of mode water density classes, the greatest volume of mode water being produced in a higher density class (σθ = 26.8–27.0 kg m–3) during the period of cooler surface forcing in the 1960s and 1970s than during the warmer period following (σθ = 26.6–26.8 kg m–3).
Abstract
The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.
Abstract
The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.
Abstract
This study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.
Abstract
This study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.
Abstract
Significant declines in spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) have been observed over the last five decades. As one step toward understanding the causes of this decline, an optimal fingerprinting technique is used to look for consistency in the temporal pattern of spring NH SCE between observations and simulations from 15 global climate models (GCMs) that form part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The authors examined simulations from 15 GCMs that included both natural and anthropogenic forcing and simulations from 7 GCMs that included only natural forcing. The decline in observed NH SCE could be largely explained by the combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. However, the 15 GCMs, taken as a whole, underpredicted the combined forcing response by a factor of 2. How much of this underprediction was due to underrepresentation of the sensitivity to external forcing of the GCMs or to their underrepresentation of internal variability has yet to be determined.
Abstract
Significant declines in spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) have been observed over the last five decades. As one step toward understanding the causes of this decline, an optimal fingerprinting technique is used to look for consistency in the temporal pattern of spring NH SCE between observations and simulations from 15 global climate models (GCMs) that form part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The authors examined simulations from 15 GCMs that included both natural and anthropogenic forcing and simulations from 7 GCMs that included only natural forcing. The decline in observed NH SCE could be largely explained by the combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. However, the 15 GCMs, taken as a whole, underpredicted the combined forcing response by a factor of 2. How much of this underprediction was due to underrepresentation of the sensitivity to external forcing of the GCMs or to their underrepresentation of internal variability has yet to be determined.
