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  • Author or Editor: PETER P. CHASE x
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PETER P. CHASE

Abstract

The problem of finding the probability that a tropical storm will be in a given area at forecast time is considered graphically.

With given bivariate data that have a joint normal distribution, a method is presented for plotting ellipses and rays which partition the data area into annuli and sectors having equal values of integrated probability.

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BANNER I. MILLER and PETER P. CHASE

Abstract

Equations for the prediction of hurricane tracks have been developed by use of statistical methods. Data at sea level, 700 mb., and 500 mb. were selected as predictors. Forecasts are prepared in 12-hr. steps for periods up to 48 hr. The forecast equations have been tested on an operational basis during the 1964 and 1965 hurricane seasons. The accuracy of these forecasts compares favorably with that of other standard hurricane forecast techniques.

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BANNER I. MILLER, ELBERT C. HILL, and PETER P. CHASE

Abstract

The NHC-64 statistical equations for predicting the movement of hurricanes have been in operational use for 4 yr. These equations have continued to perform well. Following the 1966 hurricane season, however, it was apparent that the equations could be improved. A new forecast technique, based on additional data and additional predictors, has been derived. Tests on independent data for 1966 and on an operational basis during 1967 indicate that the 1967 method is slightly superior to NHC-64.

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BANNER I. MILLER, PETER P. CHASE, and BRIAN R. JARVINEN

Abstract

A multilevel primitive-equation model has been designed for regional weather forecasting in the Tropics. Several experimental forecasts have been made on hurricane movement and development and on a nondeveloping tropical weather system. Forecasts of the movement of hurricane Celia were slightly slow and somewhat south of the actual track. Some intensification was forecast as Celia moved into the central Gulf of Mexico, but the model did not predict explosive deepening. Grid spacings of 75 and 150 km were used.

In the nondeveloping case, no deepening was forecast. Areal distribution of the predicted rainfall was good, but the amounts were too light. Forecasts have been made with hand-analyzed input and with interpolated data extracted from the National Meteorological Center's objective analyses.

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