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Abstract
A 25-member ensemble of relatively high-resolution (75-m horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms is used to obtain insight on their intrinsic predictability. The storm environments contain large and directionally varying wind shear, particularly in the boundary layer, large convective available potential energy, and a low lifting condensation level. Thus, the environments are extremely favorable for tornadic supercells. Small random temperature perturbations present in the initial conditions trigger turbulence within the boundary layers. The turbulent boundary layers are given 12 h to evolve to a quasi–steady state before storms are initiated via the introduction of a warm bubble. The spatially averaged environments are identical within the ensemble; only the random number seed and/or warm bubble location is varied. All of the simulated storms are long-lived supercells with intense updrafts and strong mesocyclones extending to the lowest model level. Even the storms with the weakest near-surface rotation probably can be regarded as weakly tornadic. However, despite the statistically identical environments, there is considerable divergence in the finescale details of the simulated storms. The intensities of the tornado-like vortices that develop in the simulations range from EF0 to EF3, with large differences in formation time and duration also being exhibited. The simulation differences only can be explained by differences in how the initial warm bubbles and/or storms interact with turbulent boundary layer structures. The results suggest very limited intrinsic predictability with respect to predicting the formation time, duration, and intensity of tornadoes.
Abstract
A 25-member ensemble of relatively high-resolution (75-m horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulations of tornadic supercell storms is used to obtain insight on their intrinsic predictability. The storm environments contain large and directionally varying wind shear, particularly in the boundary layer, large convective available potential energy, and a low lifting condensation level. Thus, the environments are extremely favorable for tornadic supercells. Small random temperature perturbations present in the initial conditions trigger turbulence within the boundary layers. The turbulent boundary layers are given 12 h to evolve to a quasi–steady state before storms are initiated via the introduction of a warm bubble. The spatially averaged environments are identical within the ensemble; only the random number seed and/or warm bubble location is varied. All of the simulated storms are long-lived supercells with intense updrafts and strong mesocyclones extending to the lowest model level. Even the storms with the weakest near-surface rotation probably can be regarded as weakly tornadic. However, despite the statistically identical environments, there is considerable divergence in the finescale details of the simulated storms. The intensities of the tornado-like vortices that develop in the simulations range from EF0 to EF3, with large differences in formation time and duration also being exhibited. The simulation differences only can be explained by differences in how the initial warm bubbles and/or storms interact with turbulent boundary layer structures. The results suggest very limited intrinsic predictability with respect to predicting the formation time, duration, and intensity of tornadoes.
Abstract
Nearly 50 years of observations of hook echoes and their associated rear-flank downdrafts (RFDs) are reviewed. Relevant theoretical and numerical simulation results also are discussed. For over 20 years, the hook echo and RFD have been hypothesized to be critical in the tornadogenesis process. Yet direct observations within hook echoes and RFDs have been relatively scarce. Furthermore, the role of the hook echo and RFD in tornadogenesis remains poorly understood. Despite many strong similarities between simulated and observed storms, some possibly important observations within hook echoes and RFDs have not been reproduced in three-dimensional numerical models.
Abstract
Nearly 50 years of observations of hook echoes and their associated rear-flank downdrafts (RFDs) are reviewed. Relevant theoretical and numerical simulation results also are discussed. For over 20 years, the hook echo and RFD have been hypothesized to be critical in the tornadogenesis process. Yet direct observations within hook echoes and RFDs have been relatively scarce. Furthermore, the role of the hook echo and RFD in tornadogenesis remains poorly understood. Despite many strong similarities between simulated and observed storms, some possibly important observations within hook echoes and RFDs have not been reproduced in three-dimensional numerical models.
Abstract
The authors document some of the unusual rotating updrafts (one of which produced a tornado) that developed over central Oklahoma on 28 October 1998 in an environment of strong (1.8 × 10−2 s−1) low-level (0–3 km) mean shear. The maximum convective available potential energy (including virtual temperature effects) a “storm” could have realized was approximately 300 J kg−1; however, most of the storms probably realized less than 100 J kg−1. Average (maximum) parcel virtual temperature excesses were estimated to be 0.4–1.2 K (1.8–2.8 K). Echo tops were measured from less than 5 km to 11.2 km above ground level (AGL), although visual observations and radar data suggested echoes that extended above approximately 5–6 km AGL were not associated with significantly buoyant cloud elements. Radar characteristics of many of the storms were similar to supercell storms (e.g., weak echo regions, echo overhang, velocity couplets, hook echoes), as were some of the visual characteristics near cloud base (e.g., wall clouds, rain-free bases, and striated low-level updrafts); however, visual characteristics in middle to upper portions of the storms were not characteristic of typical severe storms, supercells, or previously documented “minisupercells.” Furthermore, the buoyancy realized by the updrafts was estimated to be considerably less than environments associated with the aforementioned minisupercells.
Abstract
The authors document some of the unusual rotating updrafts (one of which produced a tornado) that developed over central Oklahoma on 28 October 1998 in an environment of strong (1.8 × 10−2 s−1) low-level (0–3 km) mean shear. The maximum convective available potential energy (including virtual temperature effects) a “storm” could have realized was approximately 300 J kg−1; however, most of the storms probably realized less than 100 J kg−1. Average (maximum) parcel virtual temperature excesses were estimated to be 0.4–1.2 K (1.8–2.8 K). Echo tops were measured from less than 5 km to 11.2 km above ground level (AGL), although visual observations and radar data suggested echoes that extended above approximately 5–6 km AGL were not associated with significantly buoyant cloud elements. Radar characteristics of many of the storms were similar to supercell storms (e.g., weak echo regions, echo overhang, velocity couplets, hook echoes), as were some of the visual characteristics near cloud base (e.g., wall clouds, rain-free bases, and striated low-level updrafts); however, visual characteristics in middle to upper portions of the storms were not characteristic of typical severe storms, supercells, or previously documented “minisupercells.” Furthermore, the buoyancy realized by the updrafts was estimated to be considerably less than environments associated with the aforementioned minisupercells.
Abstract
A three-dimensional cloud model was used to investigate the sensitivity of deep convective storms to dry air above the cloud base. In simulations of both quasi-linear convective systems and supercells, dry air aloft was found to reduce the intensity of the convection, as measured by updraft mass flux and total condensation and rainfall. In high-CAPE line-type simulations, the downdraft mass flux and cold pool strength were enhanced at the rear of the trailing stratiform region in a drier environment. However, the downdraft and cold pool strengths were unchanged in the convective region, and were also unchanged or reduced in simulations of supercells and of line-type systems at lower CAPE. This result contrasts with previous interpretations of the role of dry air aloft in the development of severe low-level outflow winds.
The buoyancy-sorting framework is used to interpret the influence of environmental humidity on the updraft entrainment process and the observed strong dependence on the environmental CAPE. The reduction in convective vigor caused by dry air is relatively inconsequential at very high CAPE, but low-CAPE convection requires a humid environment in order to grow by entrainment.
The simulated responses of the downdraft and cold pool intensities to dry air aloft reflected the changes in diabatic cooling rates within the downdraft formation regions. When dry air was present, the decline in hydrometeor mass exerted a negative tendency on the diabatic cooling rates and acted to offset the favorable effects of dry air for cooling by evaporation. Thus, with the exception of the rearward portions of the high-CAPE line-type simulations, dry air was unable to strengthen the downdrafts and cold pool.
A review of the literature demonstrates that observational evidence does not unambiguously support the concept that dry air aloft favors downdraft and outflow strength. It is also shown that the use of warm rain microphysics in previous modeling studies may have reinforced the tendency to overemphasize the role of dry air aloft.
Abstract
A three-dimensional cloud model was used to investigate the sensitivity of deep convective storms to dry air above the cloud base. In simulations of both quasi-linear convective systems and supercells, dry air aloft was found to reduce the intensity of the convection, as measured by updraft mass flux and total condensation and rainfall. In high-CAPE line-type simulations, the downdraft mass flux and cold pool strength were enhanced at the rear of the trailing stratiform region in a drier environment. However, the downdraft and cold pool strengths were unchanged in the convective region, and were also unchanged or reduced in simulations of supercells and of line-type systems at lower CAPE. This result contrasts with previous interpretations of the role of dry air aloft in the development of severe low-level outflow winds.
The buoyancy-sorting framework is used to interpret the influence of environmental humidity on the updraft entrainment process and the observed strong dependence on the environmental CAPE. The reduction in convective vigor caused by dry air is relatively inconsequential at very high CAPE, but low-CAPE convection requires a humid environment in order to grow by entrainment.
The simulated responses of the downdraft and cold pool intensities to dry air aloft reflected the changes in diabatic cooling rates within the downdraft formation regions. When dry air was present, the decline in hydrometeor mass exerted a negative tendency on the diabatic cooling rates and acted to offset the favorable effects of dry air for cooling by evaporation. Thus, with the exception of the rearward portions of the high-CAPE line-type simulations, dry air was unable to strengthen the downdrafts and cold pool.
A review of the literature demonstrates that observational evidence does not unambiguously support the concept that dry air aloft favors downdraft and outflow strength. It is also shown that the use of warm rain microphysics in previous modeling studies may have reinforced the tendency to overemphasize the role of dry air aloft.
Abstract
In the long-standing conceptual model of a supercell thunderstorm, the forward-flank downdraft (FFD) and its associated negative buoyancy originate from precipitation loading and the latent chilling of air due to the melting and evaporation of precipitation. The horizontal buoyancy gradient within the outflow of the FFD has been identified as an important source of low-level, streamwise vorticity in three-dimensional numerical simulations of supercells. These simulations have demonstrated that the formation of low-level mesocyclones is critically dependent on the baroclinic generation of horizontal vorticity within the FFD outflow.
Despite the implied dynamical importance of the FFD outflow in the evolution of supercell thunderstorms, only a very limited number of thermodynamic observations have been obtained within FFD outflow. The range of thermodynamic conditions within FFD outflow is not well known, nor is it known whether any systematic relationship exists between the thermodynamic characteristics of FFD outflow and the intensity of low-level mesocyclones and/or tornadogenesis. In this paper, in situ observations obtained at the ground by a mobile mesonet within FFD outflow are used to investigate whether any relationship exists between the thermodynamic characteristics of the outflow and low-level mesocyclogenesis and/or tornadogenesis. The data were obtained within both tornadic and nontornadic supercells (12 cases total) during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX) from 1994 to 1995, and in smaller field campaigns during the 1997–99 period.
Abstract
In the long-standing conceptual model of a supercell thunderstorm, the forward-flank downdraft (FFD) and its associated negative buoyancy originate from precipitation loading and the latent chilling of air due to the melting and evaporation of precipitation. The horizontal buoyancy gradient within the outflow of the FFD has been identified as an important source of low-level, streamwise vorticity in three-dimensional numerical simulations of supercells. These simulations have demonstrated that the formation of low-level mesocyclones is critically dependent on the baroclinic generation of horizontal vorticity within the FFD outflow.
Despite the implied dynamical importance of the FFD outflow in the evolution of supercell thunderstorms, only a very limited number of thermodynamic observations have been obtained within FFD outflow. The range of thermodynamic conditions within FFD outflow is not well known, nor is it known whether any systematic relationship exists between the thermodynamic characteristics of FFD outflow and the intensity of low-level mesocyclones and/or tornadogenesis. In this paper, in situ observations obtained at the ground by a mobile mesonet within FFD outflow are used to investigate whether any relationship exists between the thermodynamic characteristics of the outflow and low-level mesocyclogenesis and/or tornadogenesis. The data were obtained within both tornadic and nontornadic supercells (12 cases total) during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX) from 1994 to 1995, and in smaller field campaigns during the 1997–99 period.
Abstract
Dual-Doppler observations acquired by a network of mobile radars deployed in the Oklahoma panhandle on 3 June 2002 are used to document the kinematic structure and evolution of a front. The data were collected during the International H2O Project on a mission to study the initiation of deep convection. Synchronized scanning allowed for the synthesis of three-dimensional wind fields for nearly 5.5 h of the 1557–0000 UTC period. The front initially moved southward as a cold front, stalled, and later retreated northward as a warm front. Deep convection failed to be initiated along the front. In situ thermodynamic measurements obtained by a mobile mesonet were used to document changes in the density gradient at the surface. This paper examines the relationships among the changes in baroclinity, the thermally direct frontal circulation, updraft intensity, alongfront updraft variability, and the intensity of vortices along the front.
Increases in the front-normal density gradient tended to be associated with increases in the thermally direct frontal circulation, as expected. Increases in the front-normal density gradient were also associated with an increase in the tilt of the frontal updraft as well as an increase in the contiguity of the updraft along the front, termed the “slabularity.” During periods when the front-normal density gradient and associated thermally direct frontal circulation were weak, the kinematic fields were dominated by boundary layer convection and the slabularity of the front was reduced. Intensification of the front-normal density gradient was accompanied by an increase in the horizontal wind shear and the intensity of vortices that were observed along the front. The vortices modulated the vertical velocity field along the front and therefore the slabularity, too. Thus, although the slabularity was a strong function of the strength of the thermally direct frontal circulation, the slabularity appeared to be modified by vortices in complex ways. Possible implications of the observations for convection initiation are also discussed, particularly with respect to updraft tilt and slabularity.
Abstract
Dual-Doppler observations acquired by a network of mobile radars deployed in the Oklahoma panhandle on 3 June 2002 are used to document the kinematic structure and evolution of a front. The data were collected during the International H2O Project on a mission to study the initiation of deep convection. Synchronized scanning allowed for the synthesis of three-dimensional wind fields for nearly 5.5 h of the 1557–0000 UTC period. The front initially moved southward as a cold front, stalled, and later retreated northward as a warm front. Deep convection failed to be initiated along the front. In situ thermodynamic measurements obtained by a mobile mesonet were used to document changes in the density gradient at the surface. This paper examines the relationships among the changes in baroclinity, the thermally direct frontal circulation, updraft intensity, alongfront updraft variability, and the intensity of vortices along the front.
Increases in the front-normal density gradient tended to be associated with increases in the thermally direct frontal circulation, as expected. Increases in the front-normal density gradient were also associated with an increase in the tilt of the frontal updraft as well as an increase in the contiguity of the updraft along the front, termed the “slabularity.” During periods when the front-normal density gradient and associated thermally direct frontal circulation were weak, the kinematic fields were dominated by boundary layer convection and the slabularity of the front was reduced. Intensification of the front-normal density gradient was accompanied by an increase in the horizontal wind shear and the intensity of vortices that were observed along the front. The vortices modulated the vertical velocity field along the front and therefore the slabularity, too. Thus, although the slabularity was a strong function of the strength of the thermally direct frontal circulation, the slabularity appeared to be modified by vortices in complex ways. Possible implications of the observations for convection initiation are also discussed, particularly with respect to updraft tilt and slabularity.
Abstract
A climatology of tornadoes in Turkey is presented using records from a wide variety of sources (e.g., the Turkish State Meteorological Service, European Severe Weather Database, newspaper archives, Internet searches, etc.). The climatology includes the annual, diurnal, geographical, and intensity distributions of both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic tornadoes. From 1818 to 2013, 385 tornado cases were obtained. The tornadoes range from F0 to F3, with F1 being the most frequently reported or inferred intensity. Mesocyclonic tornadoes are most likely in May and June, and a secondary maximum in frequency is present in October and November. Nonmesocyclonic tornadoes (waterspouts) are most common in the winter along the (southern) Mediterranean coast and in the fall along the Black Sea (northern) coast. Tornadoes (both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic) are most likely in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Abstract
A climatology of tornadoes in Turkey is presented using records from a wide variety of sources (e.g., the Turkish State Meteorological Service, European Severe Weather Database, newspaper archives, Internet searches, etc.). The climatology includes the annual, diurnal, geographical, and intensity distributions of both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic tornadoes. From 1818 to 2013, 385 tornado cases were obtained. The tornadoes range from F0 to F3, with F1 being the most frequently reported or inferred intensity. Mesocyclonic tornadoes are most likely in May and June, and a secondary maximum in frequency is present in October and November. Nonmesocyclonic tornadoes (waterspouts) are most common in the winter along the (southern) Mediterranean coast and in the fall along the Black Sea (northern) coast. Tornadoes (both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic) are most likely in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Abstract
In idealized simulations of convective storms, which are almost always run as large-eddy simulations (LES), the planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are typically laminar (i.e., they lack turbulent eddies). When compared with turbulent simulations, theory, or simulations with PBL schemes, the typically laminar LES used in the severe-storms community produce unrealistic near-surface vertical wind profiles containing excessive vertical wind shear when the lower boundary condition is nonfree slip. Such simulations are potentially problematic given the recent interest within the severe storms community in the influence of friction on vorticity generation within tornadic storms. Simulations run as LES that include surface friction but lack well-resolved turbulent eddies thus probably overestimate friction’s effects on storms.
Abstract
In idealized simulations of convective storms, which are almost always run as large-eddy simulations (LES), the planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are typically laminar (i.e., they lack turbulent eddies). When compared with turbulent simulations, theory, or simulations with PBL schemes, the typically laminar LES used in the severe-storms community produce unrealistic near-surface vertical wind profiles containing excessive vertical wind shear when the lower boundary condition is nonfree slip. Such simulations are potentially problematic given the recent interest within the severe storms community in the influence of friction on vorticity generation within tornadic storms. Simulations run as LES that include surface friction but lack well-resolved turbulent eddies thus probably overestimate friction’s effects on storms.
Abstract
This study investigates the changes that simulated supercell thunderstorms impart on their surroundings. Supercells are simulated in a strongly sheared convective boundary layer comprising horizontal roll vortices. In sensitivity tests, the effects of cloud shading on the near-storm environment are explored through the removal of cloud ice, water, and hydrometeor effects on parameterized radiation. All of the simulated supercells increase the low-level shear in their proximal environment; however, this effect is more pronounced when cloud shading is included. Shading stabilizes the boundary layer beneath the cirrus anvil, diminishes boundary layer rolls and their attendant thermodynamic perturbations, and reduces the intensity of resolved turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer. Anvil shading also acts to reduce the buoyancy of inflow air and the horizontal buoyancy gradient along the forward-flank outflow boundary.
Abstract
This study investigates the changes that simulated supercell thunderstorms impart on their surroundings. Supercells are simulated in a strongly sheared convective boundary layer comprising horizontal roll vortices. In sensitivity tests, the effects of cloud shading on the near-storm environment are explored through the removal of cloud ice, water, and hydrometeor effects on parameterized radiation. All of the simulated supercells increase the low-level shear in their proximal environment; however, this effect is more pronounced when cloud shading is included. Shading stabilizes the boundary layer beneath the cirrus anvil, diminishes boundary layer rolls and their attendant thermodynamic perturbations, and reduces the intensity of resolved turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer. Anvil shading also acts to reduce the buoyancy of inflow air and the horizontal buoyancy gradient along the forward-flank outflow boundary.
