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  • Author or Editor: Peter Bechtold x
  • DYNAMO/CINDY/AMIE/LASP: Processes, Dynamics, and Prediction of MJO Initiation x
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Ji-Eun Kim
,
Chidong Zhang
,
George N. Kiladis
, and
Peter Bechtold

Abstract

Reforecasts produced by the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) were used to study heating and moistening processes associated with three MJO events over the equatorial Indian Ocean during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign. Variables produced by and derived from the IFS reforecast (IFS-RF) agree reasonably well with observations over the DYNAMO sounding arrays, and they vary smoothly from the western to eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. This lends confidence toward using IFS-RF as a surrogate of observations over the equatorial Indian Ocean outside the DYNAMO arrays. The apparent heat source Q 1 and apparent moisture sink Q 2 produced by IFS are primarily generated by parameterized cumulus convection, followed by microphysics and radiation. The vertical growth of positive Q 1 and Q 2 associated with the progression of MJO convection can be gradual, stepwise, or rapid depending on the event and its location over the broader equatorial Indian Ocean. The time for convective heating and drying to progress from shallow (800 hPa) to deep (400 hPa) can be <1 to 6 days. This growth time of heating and drying is usually short for convective processes alone but becomes longer when additional microphysical processes, such as evaporative moistening below convective and stratiform clouds, are in play. Three ratios are calculated to measure the possible role of radiative feedback in the MJO events: amplitudes of radiative versus convective heating rates, changes in radiative versus convective heating rates, and diabatic (with and without the radiative component) versus adiabatic heating rates. None of them unambiguously distinguishes the MJO from non-MJO convective events.

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Jian Ling
,
Peter Bauer
,
Peter Bechtold
,
Anton Beljaars
,
Richard Forbes
,
Frederic Vitart
,
Marcela Ulate
, and
Chidong Zhang

Abstract

This study introduces a concept of global versus local forecast skill of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The global skill, measured by a commonly used MJO index [the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM)], evaluates the model’s capability of forecasting global patterns of the MJO, with an emphasis on the zonal wind fields. The local skill is measured by a method of tracking the eastward propagation of MJO precipitation. It provides quantitative information of the strength, propagation speed, and timing of MJO precipitation in a given region, such as the Indian Ocean. Both global and local MJO forecast skills are assessed for ECMWF forecasts of three MJO events during the 2011–12 Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Characteristics of error growth differ substantially between global and local MJO forecast skills, and between the three MJO quantities (strength, speed, and timing) of the local skill measure. They all vary considerably among the three MJO events. Deterioration in global forecast skill for these three events appears to be related to poor local skill in forecasting the propagation speed of MJO precipitation. The global and local MJO forecast skill measures are also applied to evaluate numerical experiments of observation denial, humidity relaxation, and forcing by daily perturbations in sea surface temperature (SST). The results suggest that forecast skill or errors of convective initiation of the three MJO events have global origins. Effects of local (Indian Ocean) factors, such as enhanced observations in the initial conditions, variability of tropospheric humidity and tropical SST, on forecasts of MJO initiation and propagation are limited.

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