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Elizabeth C. Kent, John J. Kennedy, Thomas M. Smith, Shoji Hirahara, Boyin Huang, Alexey Kaplan, David E. Parker, Christopher P. Atkinson, David I. Berry, Giulia Carella, Yoshikazu Fukuda, Masayoshi Ishii, Philip D. Jones, Finn Lindgren, Christopher J. Merchant, Simone Morak-Bozzo, Nick A. Rayner, Victor Venema, Souichiro Yasui, and Huai-Min Zhang

Abstract

Global surface temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated variations in the observed rate of surface temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface temperature change and provide higher-quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications.

Bias adjustments have been based on either physical models of the observing processes or the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference dataset, such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and time scales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method.

New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges.

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Thomas Jung, Neil D. Gordon, Peter Bauer, David H. Bromwich, Matthieu Chevallier, Jonathan J. Day, Jackie Dawson, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Christopher Fairall, Helge F. Goessling, Marika Holland, Jun Inoue, Trond Iversen, Stefanie Klebe, Peter Lemke, Martin Losch, Alexander Makshtas, Brian Mills, Pertti Nurmi, Donald Perovich, Philip Reid, Ian A. Renfrew, Gregory Smith, Gunilla Svensson, Mikhail Tolstykh, and Qinghua Yang

Abstract

The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar–lower-latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting communites will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and educational activities.

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AIRS

Improving Weather Forecasting and Providing New Data on Greenhouse Gases

MOUSTAFA T. CHAHINE, THOMAS S. PAGANO, HARTMUT H. AUMANN, ROBERT ATLAS, CHRISTOPHER BARNET, JOHN BLAISDELL, LUKE CHEN, MURTY DIVAKARLA, ERIC J. FETZER, MITCH GOLDBERG, CATHERINE GAUTIER, STEPHANIE GRANGER, SCOTT HANNON, FREDRICK W. IRION, RAMESH KAKAR, EUGENIA KALNAY, BJORN H. LAMBRIGTSEN, SUNG-YUNG LEE, JOHN Le MARSHALL, W. WALLACE MCMILLAN, LARRY MCMILLIN, EDWARD T. OLSEN, HENRY REVERCOMB, PHILIP ROSENKRANZ, WILLIAM L. SMITH, DAVID STAELIN, L. LARRABEE STROW, JOEL SUSSKIND, DAVID TOBIN, WALTER WOLF, and LIHANG ZHOU

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its two companion microwave sounders, AMSU and HSB were launched into polar orbit onboard the NASA Aqua Satellite in May 2002. NASA required the sounding system to provide high-quality research data for climate studies and to meet NOAA's requirements for improving operational weather forecasting. The NOAA requirement translated into global retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles with accuracies approaching those of radiosondes. AIRS also provides new measurements of several greenhouse gases, such as CO2, CO, CH4, O3, SO2, and aerosols.

The assimilation of AIRS data into operational weather forecasting has already demonstrated significant improvements in global forecast skill. At NOAA/NCEP, the improvement in the forecast skill achieved at 6 days is equivalent to gaining an extension of forecast capability of six hours. This improvement is quite significant when compared to other forecast improvements over the last decade. In addition to NCEP, ECMWF and the Met Office have also reported positive forecast impacts due AIRS.

AIRS is a hyperspectral sounder with 2,378 infrared channels between 3.7 and 15.4 μm. NOAA/NESDIS routinely distributes AIRS data within 3 hours to NWP centers around the world. The AIRS design represents a breakthrough in infrared space instrumentation with measurement stability and accuracies far surpassing any current research or operational sounder..The results we describe in this paper are “work in progress,” and although significant accomplishments have already been made much more work remains in order to realize the full potential of this suite of instruments.

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Ian M. Brooks, Margaret J. Yelland, Robert C. Upstill-Goddard, Philip D. Nightingale, Steve Archer, Eric d'Asaro, Rachael Beale, Cory Beatty, Byron Blomquist, A. Anthony Bloom, Barbara J. Brooks, John Cluderay, David Coles, John Dacey, Michael Degrandpre, Jo Dixon, William M. Drennan, Joseph Gabriele, Laura Goldson, Nick Hardman-Mountford, Martin K. Hill, Matt Horn, Ping-Chang Hsueh, Barry Huebert, Gerrit De Leeuw, Timothy G. Leighton, Malcolm Liddicoat, Justin J. N. Lingard, Craig Mcneil, James B. Mcquaid, Ben I. Moat, Gerald Moore, Craig Neill, Sarah J. Norris, Simon O'Doherty, Robin W. Pascal, John Prytherch, Mike Rebozo, Erik Sahlee, Matt Salter, Ute Schuster, Ingunn Skjelvan, Hans Slagter, Michael H. Smith, Paul D. Smith, Meric Srokosz, John A. Stephens, Peter K. Taylor, Maciej Telszewski, Roisin Walsh, Brian Ward, David K. Woolf, Dickon Young, and Henk Zemmelink

Abstract

No Abstract available.

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Ian M. Brooks, Margaret J. Yelland, Robert C. Upstill-Goddard, Philip D. Nightingale, Steve Archer, Eric d'Asaro, Rachael Beale, Cory Beatty, Byron Blomquist, A. Anthony Bloom, Barbara J. Brooks, John Cluderay, David Coles, John Dacey, Michael DeGrandpre, Jo Dixon, William M. Drennan, Joseph Gabriele, Laura Goldson, Nick Hardman-Mountford, Martin K. Hill, Matt Horn, Ping-Chang Hsueh, Barry Huebert, Gerrit de Leeuw, Timothy G. Leighton, Malcolm Liddicoat, Justin J. N. Lingard, Craig McNeil, James B. McQuaid, Ben I. Moat, Gerald Moore, Craig Neill, Sarah J. Norris, Simon O'Doherty, Robin W. Pascal, John Prytherch, Mike Rebozo, Erik Sahlee, Matt Salter, Ute Schuster, Ingunn Skjelvan, Hans Slagter, Michael H. Smith, Paul D. Smith, Meric Srokosz, John A. Stephens, Peter K. Taylor, Maciej Telszewski, Roisin Walsh, Brian Ward, David K. Woolf, Dickon Young, and Henk Zemmelink

As part of the U.K. contribution to the international Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study, a series of three related projects—DOGEE, SEASAW, and HiWASE—undertook experimental studies of the processes controlling the physical exchange of gases and sea spray aerosol at the sea surface. The studies share a common goal: to reduce the high degree of uncertainty in current parameterization schemes. The wide variety of measurements made during the studies, which incorporated tracer and surfactant release experiments, included direct eddy correlation fluxes, detailed wave spectra, wind history, photographic retrievals of whitecap fraction, aerosolsize spectra and composition, surfactant concentration, and bubble populations in the ocean mixed layer. Measurements were made during three cruises in the northeast Atlantic on the RRS Discovery during 2006 and 2007; a fourth campaign has been making continuous measurements on the Norwegian weather ship Polarfront since September 2006. This paper provides an overview of the three projects and some of the highlights of the measurement campaigns.

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Brian J. Butterworth, Ankur R. Desai, Stefan Metzger, Philip A. Townsend, Mark D. Schwartz, Grant W. Petty, Matthias Mauder, Hannes Vogelmann, Christian G. Andresen, Travis J. Augustine, Timothy H. Bertram, William O. J. Brown, Michael Buban, Patricia Cleary, David J. Durden, Christopher R. Florian, Trevor J. Iglinski, Eric L. Kruger, Kathleen Lantz, Temple R. Lee, Tilden P. Meyers, James K. Mineau, Erik R. Olson, Steven P. Oncley, Sreenath Paleri, Rosalyn A. Pertzborn, Claire Pettersen, David M. Plummer, Laura D. Riihimaki, Eliceo Ruiz Guzman, Joseph Sedlar, Elizabeth N. Smith, Johannes Speidel, Paul C. Stoy, Matthias Sühring, Jonathan E. Thom, David D. Turner, Michael P. Vermeuel, Timothy J. Wagner, Zhien Wang, Luise Wanner, Loren D. White, James M. Wilczak, Daniel B. Wright, and Ting Zheng

Abstract

The Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-Balance Study Enabled by a High-Density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) is an ongoing National Science Foundation project based on an intensive field campaign that occurred from June to October 2019. The purpose of the study is to examine how the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) responds to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes. One of the main objectives is to test whether lack of energy balance closure measured by eddy covariance (EC) towers is related to mesoscale atmospheric processes. Finally, the project evaluates data-driven methods for scaling surface energy fluxes, with the aim to improve model–data comparison and integration. To address these questions, an extensive suite of ground, tower, profiling, and airborne instrumentation was deployed over a 10 km × 10 km domain of a heterogeneous forest ecosystem in the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin, United States, centered on an existing 447-m tower that anchors an AmeriFlux/NOAA supersite (US-PFa/WLEF). The project deployed one of the world’s highest-density networks of above-canopy EC measurements of surface energy fluxes. This tower EC network was coupled with spatial measurements of EC fluxes from aircraft; maps of leaf and canopy properties derived from airborne spectroscopy, ground-based measurements of plant productivity, phenology, and physiology; and atmospheric profiles of wind, water vapor, and temperature using radar, sodar, lidar, microwave radiometers, infrared interferometers, and radiosondes. These observations are being used with large-eddy simulation and scaling experiments to better understand submesoscale processes and improve formulations of subgrid-scale processes in numerical weather and climate models.

Open access
Robert J. H. Dunn, F. Aldred, Nadine Gobron, John B. Miller, Kate M. Willett, M. Ades, Robert Adler, Richard, P. Allan, Rob Allan, J. Anderson, Anthony Argüez, C. Arosio, John A. Augustine, C. Azorin-Molina, J. Barichivich, H. E. Beck, Andreas Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Angela Benedetti, David I. Berry, Stephen Blenkinsop, Olivier Bock, X. Bodin, Michael G. Bosilovich, Olivier Boucher, S. A. Buehler, B. Calmettes, Laura Carrea, Laura Castia, Hanne H. Christiansen, John R. Christy, E.-S. Chung, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Owen R. Cooper, Richard C. Cornes, Curt Covey, J.-F. Cretaux, M. Crotwell, Sean M. Davis, Richard A. M. de Jeu, Doug Degenstein, R. Delaloye, Larry Di Girolamo, Markus G. Donat, Wouter A. Dorigo, Imke Durre, Geoff S. Dutton, Gregory Duveiller, James W. Elkins, Vitali E. Fioletov, Johannes Flemming, Michael J. Foster, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, J. Garforth, Matthew Gentry, S. K. Gupta, S. Hahn, Leopold Haimberger, Brad D. Hall, Ian Harris, D. L. Hemming, M. Hirschi, Shu-pen (Ben) Ho, F. Hrbacek, Daan Hubert, Dale F. Hurst, Antje Inness, K. Isaksen, Viju O. John, Philip D. Jones, Robert Junod, J. W. Kaiser, V. Kaufmann, A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Elizabeth C. Kent, R. Kidd, Hyungjun Kim, Z. Kipling, A. Koppa, B. M. Kraemer, D. P. Kratz, Xin Lan, Kathleen O. Lantz, D. Lavers, Norman G. Loeb, Diego Loyola, R. Madelon, Michael Mayer, M. F. McCabe, Tim R. McVicar, Carl A. Mears, Christopher J. Merchant, Diego G. Miralles, L. Moesinger, Stephen A. Montzka, Colin Morice, L. Mösinger, Jens Mühle, Julien P. Nicolas, Jeannette Noetzli, Ben Noll, J. O’Keefe, Tim J. Osborn, T. Park, A. J. Pasik, C. Pellet, Maury S. Pelto, S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, G. Petron, Coda Phillips, S. Po-Chedley, L. Polvani, W. Preimesberger, D. G. Rains, W. J. Randel, Nick A. Rayner, Samuel Rémy, L. Ricciardulli, A. D. Richardson, David A. Robinson, Matthew Rodell, N. J. Rodríguez-Fernández, K.H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, A. Rozanov, T. Rutishäuser, Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, P. Sawaengphokhai, T. Scanlon, Verena Schenzinger, R. W. Schlegel, S. Sharma, Lei Shi, Adrian J. Simmons, Carolina Siso, Sharon L. Smith, B. J. Soden, Viktoria Sofieva, T. H. Sparks, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Martin Stengel, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, Sunny Sun-Mack, P. Tans, S. J. Thackeray, E. Thibert, D. Tokuda, Kleareti Tourpali, Mari R. Tye, Ronald van der A, Robin van der Schalie, Gerard van der Schrier, M. van der Vliet, Guido R. van der Werf, A. Vance, Jean-Paul Vernier, Isaac J. Vimont, Holger Vömel, Russell S. Vose, Ray Wang, Markus Weber, David Wiese, Anne C. Wilber, Jeanette D. Wild, Takmeng Wong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xinjia Zhou, Xungang Yin, Guangyu Zhao, Lin Zhao, Jerry R. Ziemke, Markus Ziese, and R. M. Zotta
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M. Ades, R. Adler, Rob Allan, R. P. Allan, J. Anderson, Anthony Argüez, C. Arosio, J. A. Augustine, C. Azorin-Molina, J. Barichivich, J. Barnes, H. E. Beck, Andreas Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Angela Benedetti, David I. Berry, Stephen Blenkinsop, Olivier. Bock, Michael G. Bosilovich, Olivier. Boucher, S. A. Buehler, Laura. Carrea, Hanne H. Christiansen, F. Chouza, John R. Christy, E.-S. Chung, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Gil P. Compo, Owen R. Cooper, Curt Covey, A. Crotwell, Sean M. Davis, Elvira de Eyto, Richard A. M de Jeu, B.V. VanderSat, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Doug Degenstein, Larry Di Girolamo, Martin T. Dokulil, Markus G. Donat, Wouter A. Dorigo, Imke Durre, Geoff S. Dutton, G. Duveiller, James W. Elkins, Vitali E. Fioletov, Johannes Flemming, Michael J. Foster, Richard A. Frey, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, J. Garforth, S. K. Gupta, Leopold Haimberger, Brad D. Hall, Ian Harris, Andrew K Heidinger, D. L. Hemming, Shu-peng (Ben) Ho, Daan Hubert, Dale F. Hurst, I. Hüser, Antje Inness, K. Isaksen, Viju John, Philip D. Jones, J. W. Kaiser, S. Kelly, S. Khaykin, R. Kidd, Hyungiun Kim, Z. Kipling, B. M. Kraemer, D. P. Kratz, R. S. La Fuente, Xin Lan, Kathleen O. Lantz, T. Leblanc, Bailing Li, Norman G Loeb, Craig S. Long, Diego Loyola, Wlodzimierz Marszelewski, B. Martens, Linda May, Michael Mayer, M. F. McCabe, Tim R. McVicar, Carl A. Mears, W. Paul Menzel, Christopher J. Merchant, Ben R. Miller, Diego G. Miralles, Stephen A. Montzka, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, R. Myneni, Julien P. Nicolas, Jeannette Noetzli, Tim J. Osborn, T. Park, A. Pasik, Andrew M. Paterson, Mauri S. Pelto, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, G. Pétron, C. Phillips, Bernard Pinty, S. Po-Chedley, L. Polvani, W. Preimesberger, M. Pulkkanen, W. J. Randel, Samuel Rémy, L. Ricciardulli, A. D. Richardson, L. Rieger, David A. Robinson, Matthew Rodell, Karen H. Rosenlof, Chris Roth, A. Rozanov, James A. Rusak, O. Rusanovskaya, T. Rutishäuser, Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, P. Sawaengphokhai, T. Scanlon, Verena Schenzinger, S. Geoffey Schladow, R. W Schlegel, Eawag Schmid, Martin, H. B. Selkirk, S. Sharma, Lei Shi, S. V. Shimaraeva, E. A. Silow, Adrian J. Simmons, C. A. Smith, Sharon L Smith, B. J. Soden, Viktoria Sofieva, T. H. Sparks, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, G. Taha, Hagen Telg, S. J. Thackeray, M. A. Timofeyev, Kleareti Tourpali, Mari R. Tye, Ronald J. van der A, Robin, VanderSat B.V. van der Schalie, Gerard van der SchrierW. Paul, Guido R. van der Werf, Piet Verburg, Jean-Paul Vernier, Holger Vömel, Russell S. Vose, Ray Wang, Shohei G. Watanabe, Mark Weber, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, David Wiese, Anne C. Wilber, Jeanette D. Wild, Takmeng Wong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xungang Yin, Lin Zhao, Guanguo Zhao, Xinjia Zhou, Jerry R. Ziemke, and Markus Ziese
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