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Abstract
Surface parameters at the location of over 5000 tornadoes from January 1968 through 15 June 1974 were computed objectively at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. This set of conditions 0–3 h prior to tornado occurrence provides a large sample and was used to determine a variety of tornado related averages. The mean conditions associated with tornadoes include: temperature 74°F, dew point 62°F, sea level pressure 1007 mb, and wind 175° at 7 kt. Significant seasonal and geographical variations from these averages were noted and illustrated.
Abstract
Surface parameters at the location of over 5000 tornadoes from January 1968 through 15 June 1974 were computed objectively at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. This set of conditions 0–3 h prior to tornado occurrence provides a large sample and was used to determine a variety of tornado related averages. The mean conditions associated with tornadoes include: temperature 74°F, dew point 62°F, sea level pressure 1007 mb, and wind 175° at 7 kt. Significant seasonal and geographical variations from these averages were noted and illustrated.
Abstract
Subduction requires a buoyancy input into the mixed layer, which over the gyre scale can either be achieved by an atmospheric input or a wind-induced Ekman redistribution of buoyancy. The buoyancy budget for subduction is diagnosed over the North Atlantic using monthly fields from 1950 to 1992. The climatological-mean budget suggests that subduction over the subtropical gyre occurs through an Ekman redistribution of buoyancy from the Tropics, rather than a surface buoyancy flux from the atmosphere. In contrast, interannual variations in subduction are controlled by the variations in the surface buoyancy flux, which are generally greater than the variations in the Ekman redistribution of buoyancy. However, over the Tropics and southern part of the subtropical gyre, there is a partial cancellation in the opposing contributions from the surface and Ekman buoyancy fluxes, which acts to reduce the interannual variations in subduction.
Abstract
Subduction requires a buoyancy input into the mixed layer, which over the gyre scale can either be achieved by an atmospheric input or a wind-induced Ekman redistribution of buoyancy. The buoyancy budget for subduction is diagnosed over the North Atlantic using monthly fields from 1950 to 1992. The climatological-mean budget suggests that subduction over the subtropical gyre occurs through an Ekman redistribution of buoyancy from the Tropics, rather than a surface buoyancy flux from the atmosphere. In contrast, interannual variations in subduction are controlled by the variations in the surface buoyancy flux, which are generally greater than the variations in the Ekman redistribution of buoyancy. However, over the Tropics and southern part of the subtropical gyre, there is a partial cancellation in the opposing contributions from the surface and Ekman buoyancy fluxes, which acts to reduce the interannual variations in subduction.
Abstract
The effect of cooling on the separated boundary current predicted by the model of Parsons is studied. The separating current is found to strengthen and to move southwards and eastwards. The model is also robust to limited heating. in which case the separating current weakens and moves northwards.
Abstract
The effect of cooling on the separated boundary current predicted by the model of Parsons is studied. The separating current is found to strengthen and to move southwards and eastwards. The model is also robust to limited heating. in which case the separating current weakens and moves northwards.
Abstract
The formation rate of water masses and its relation to air–sea fluxes and interior mixing are examined in an isopycnic model of the North (and tropical) Atlantic that includes a mixed layer. The diagnostics follow Walin’s formulation, linking volume and potential density budgets for an isopycnal layer.
The authors consider the balance between water mass production, mixing, and air–sea fluxes in the model in the context of two limit cases: (i) with no mixing, where air–sea fluxes drive water mass formation directly, and (ii) a steady state in a closed basin, where air–sea fluxes are balanced by diffusion. In such a steady state, since mixing always acts to reduce density contrast, surface forcing must act to increase it.
Considered over the whole basin, including the Tropics, the model is in steady state apart from the densest layers. Most of the mixing is achieved by diapycnal diffusion in the strong density gradients within upwelling regions in the Tropics, and by entrainment into the tropical mixed layer. Mixing from entrainment associated with the seasonal cycle of mixed layer depth in mid and high latitudes and lateral mixing of density within the mixed layer are less important than this tropical mixing. These model results as to the relative importance of the different mixing processes are consistent with a simple scaling analysis.
Outside the Tropics, the upwelling-linked mixing is no longer important, and a first-order estimate of water mass formation rates may be made from the surface fluxes. Lateral mixing of density within the mixed layer and seasonal entrainment mixing are as important as the remaining thermocline mixing within this domain.
An apparent vertical diffusivity is diagnosed over both the full and extratropical domain. It reaches 10−4 m2 s−1 for the denser waters, about four times as large as the explicit diapycnal diffusion within the thermocline.
Abstract
The formation rate of water masses and its relation to air–sea fluxes and interior mixing are examined in an isopycnic model of the North (and tropical) Atlantic that includes a mixed layer. The diagnostics follow Walin’s formulation, linking volume and potential density budgets for an isopycnal layer.
The authors consider the balance between water mass production, mixing, and air–sea fluxes in the model in the context of two limit cases: (i) with no mixing, where air–sea fluxes drive water mass formation directly, and (ii) a steady state in a closed basin, where air–sea fluxes are balanced by diffusion. In such a steady state, since mixing always acts to reduce density contrast, surface forcing must act to increase it.
Considered over the whole basin, including the Tropics, the model is in steady state apart from the densest layers. Most of the mixing is achieved by diapycnal diffusion in the strong density gradients within upwelling regions in the Tropics, and by entrainment into the tropical mixed layer. Mixing from entrainment associated with the seasonal cycle of mixed layer depth in mid and high latitudes and lateral mixing of density within the mixed layer are less important than this tropical mixing. These model results as to the relative importance of the different mixing processes are consistent with a simple scaling analysis.
Outside the Tropics, the upwelling-linked mixing is no longer important, and a first-order estimate of water mass formation rates may be made from the surface fluxes. Lateral mixing of density within the mixed layer and seasonal entrainment mixing are as important as the remaining thermocline mixing within this domain.
An apparent vertical diffusivity is diagnosed over both the full and extratropical domain. It reaches 10−4 m2 s−1 for the denser waters, about four times as large as the explicit diapycnal diffusion within the thermocline.
Abstract
The annual rate at which mixed-layer fluid is transferred into the permanent thermocline—that is, the annual subduction rate S ann and the effective subduction period 𝒯eff—is inferred from climatological data in the North Atlantic. From its kinematic definition, S ann is obtained by summing the vertical velocity at the base of the winter mixed layer with the lateral induction of fluid through the sloping base of the winter mixed layer. Geostrophic velocity fields, computed from the Levitus climatology assuming a level of no motion at 2.5 km, are used; the vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer is deduced from observed surface Ekman pumping velocities and linear vorticity balance. A plausible pattern of S ann is obtained with subduction rates over the subtropical gyre approaching 100 m/yr—twice the maximum rate of Ekman pumping.
The subduction period 𝒯eff is found by viewing subduction as a transformation process converting mixed-layer fluid into stratified thermocline fluid. The effective period is that period of time during the shallowing of the mixed layer in which sufficient buoyancy is delivered to permit irreversible transfer of fluid into the main thermocline at the rate S ann. Typically 𝒯eff is found to be 1 to 2 months over the major part of the subtropical gyre, rising to 4 months in the tropics.
Finally, the heat budget of a column of fluid, extending from the surface down to the base of the seasonal thermocline is discussed, following it over an annual cycle. We are able to relate the buoyancy delivered to the mixed layer during the subduction period to the annual-mean buoyancy forcing through the sea surface plus the warming due to the convergence of Ekman heat fluxes. The relative importance of surface fluxes (heat and freshwater) and Ekman fluxes in supplying buoyancy to support subduction is examined using the climatologist observations of Isemer and Hasse, Schmitt et al., and Levitus. The pumping down of fluid from the warm summer Ekman layer into the thermocline makes a crucial contribution and, over the subtropical gyre, is the dominant term in the thermodynamics of subduction.
Abstract
The annual rate at which mixed-layer fluid is transferred into the permanent thermocline—that is, the annual subduction rate S ann and the effective subduction period 𝒯eff—is inferred from climatological data in the North Atlantic. From its kinematic definition, S ann is obtained by summing the vertical velocity at the base of the winter mixed layer with the lateral induction of fluid through the sloping base of the winter mixed layer. Geostrophic velocity fields, computed from the Levitus climatology assuming a level of no motion at 2.5 km, are used; the vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer is deduced from observed surface Ekman pumping velocities and linear vorticity balance. A plausible pattern of S ann is obtained with subduction rates over the subtropical gyre approaching 100 m/yr—twice the maximum rate of Ekman pumping.
The subduction period 𝒯eff is found by viewing subduction as a transformation process converting mixed-layer fluid into stratified thermocline fluid. The effective period is that period of time during the shallowing of the mixed layer in which sufficient buoyancy is delivered to permit irreversible transfer of fluid into the main thermocline at the rate S ann. Typically 𝒯eff is found to be 1 to 2 months over the major part of the subtropical gyre, rising to 4 months in the tropics.
Finally, the heat budget of a column of fluid, extending from the surface down to the base of the seasonal thermocline is discussed, following it over an annual cycle. We are able to relate the buoyancy delivered to the mixed layer during the subduction period to the annual-mean buoyancy forcing through the sea surface plus the warming due to the convergence of Ekman heat fluxes. The relative importance of surface fluxes (heat and freshwater) and Ekman fluxes in supplying buoyancy to support subduction is examined using the climatologist observations of Isemer and Hasse, Schmitt et al., and Levitus. The pumping down of fluid from the warm summer Ekman layer into the thermocline makes a crucial contribution and, over the subtropical gyre, is the dominant term in the thermodynamics of subduction.
Abstract
The Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is known to produce too little total rainfall on average over India during the summer monsoon period, when assessed for multiyear climate simulations. We investigate how quickly this dry bias appears by assessing the 5-day operational forecasts produced by the MetUM for six different years. It is found that the MetUM shows a drying tendency across the five days of the forecasts, for all of the six years (which correspond to two different model versions). We then calculate each term in the moisture budget, for a region covering southern and central India, where the dry bias is worst in both climate simulations and weather forecasts. By looking at how the terms vary with forecast lead time, we are able to identify biases in the weather forecasts that have been previously identified in climate simulations using the same model, and we attempt to quantify how these biases lead to a reduction in total rainfall. In particular, an anticyclonic bias develops to the east of India throughout the forecast, and it has a complex effect on the moisture available over the peninsula, and a reduction in the wind speed into the west of the region appears after about 3 days, indicative of upstream effects. In addition, we find a new bias that the air advected from the west is too dry from very early in the forecast, and this has an important effect on the rainfall.
Abstract
The Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is known to produce too little total rainfall on average over India during the summer monsoon period, when assessed for multiyear climate simulations. We investigate how quickly this dry bias appears by assessing the 5-day operational forecasts produced by the MetUM for six different years. It is found that the MetUM shows a drying tendency across the five days of the forecasts, for all of the six years (which correspond to two different model versions). We then calculate each term in the moisture budget, for a region covering southern and central India, where the dry bias is worst in both climate simulations and weather forecasts. By looking at how the terms vary with forecast lead time, we are able to identify biases in the weather forecasts that have been previously identified in climate simulations using the same model, and we attempt to quantify how these biases lead to a reduction in total rainfall. In particular, an anticyclonic bias develops to the east of India throughout the forecast, and it has a complex effect on the moisture available over the peninsula, and a reduction in the wind speed into the west of the region appears after about 3 days, indicative of upstream effects. In addition, we find a new bias that the air advected from the west is too dry from very early in the forecast, and this has an important effect on the rainfall.
Abstract
In the mid-twentieth century (1948–57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas–forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas–forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.
Abstract
In the mid-twentieth century (1948–57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas–forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas–forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.
Abstract
Changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined to support the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. Details of the variability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning characteristics over the decade 2003–12 are provided using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Changes in total (CG + cloud flash) lightning across part of the CONUS during the decade are provided using satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. The variations in NLDN-derived CG lightning are compared with available statistics on lightning-caused impacts to various U.S. economic sectors. Overall, a downward trend in total CG lightning count is found for the decadal period; the 5-yr mean NLDN CG count decreased by 12.8% from 25 204 345.8 (2003–07) to 21 986 578.8 (2008–12). There is a slow upward trend in the fraction and number of positive-polarity CG lightning, however. Associated lightning-caused fatalities and injuries, and the number of lightning-caused wildland fires and burn acreage also trended downward, but crop and personal-property damage costs increased. The 5-yr mean LIS total lightning changed little over the decadal period. Whereas the CONUS-averaged dry-bulb temperature trended upward during the analysis period, the CONUS-averaged wet-bulb temperature (a variable that is better correlated with lightning activity) trended downward. A simple linear model shows that climate-induced changes in CG lightning frequency would likely have a substantial and direct impact on humankind (e.g., a long-term upward trend of 1°C in wet-bulb temperature corresponds to approximately 14 fatalities and over $367 million in personal-property damage resulting from lightning).
Abstract
Changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined to support the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. Details of the variability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning characteristics over the decade 2003–12 are provided using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Changes in total (CG + cloud flash) lightning across part of the CONUS during the decade are provided using satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. The variations in NLDN-derived CG lightning are compared with available statistics on lightning-caused impacts to various U.S. economic sectors. Overall, a downward trend in total CG lightning count is found for the decadal period; the 5-yr mean NLDN CG count decreased by 12.8% from 25 204 345.8 (2003–07) to 21 986 578.8 (2008–12). There is a slow upward trend in the fraction and number of positive-polarity CG lightning, however. Associated lightning-caused fatalities and injuries, and the number of lightning-caused wildland fires and burn acreage also trended downward, but crop and personal-property damage costs increased. The 5-yr mean LIS total lightning changed little over the decadal period. Whereas the CONUS-averaged dry-bulb temperature trended upward during the analysis period, the CONUS-averaged wet-bulb temperature (a variable that is better correlated with lightning activity) trended downward. A simple linear model shows that climate-induced changes in CG lightning frequency would likely have a substantial and direct impact on humankind (e.g., a long-term upward trend of 1°C in wet-bulb temperature corresponds to approximately 14 fatalities and over $367 million in personal-property damage resulting from lightning).
Abstract
A vertical array of acoustic current meters measures the vector flow field in the lowest 5 m of the oceanic boundary layer. By resolving the velocity to 0.03 cm s−1 over 15 cm paths, it samples the dominant turbulent eddies responsible for Reynolds stress to within 50 cm of the bottom. Profiles through the inner boundary layer, from six sensor pods, of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, and Reynolds stress can be recorded for up 10 four months with a 2 Hz sample rate and 20 min averaging interval. We can study flow structure and spectra from as many as four event-triggered recordings of unaveraged samples, each lasting one hour, during periods of intense sediment transport. Acoustic transducer multiplexing permits 24 axes to be interfaced to a single receiving circuit. Electrical reversal of transducers in each axis eliminates zero drift. A deep-sea tripod supports the sensor array rigidly with minimum flow disturbance, yet releases on command for free vehicle recovery.
Abstract
A vertical array of acoustic current meters measures the vector flow field in the lowest 5 m of the oceanic boundary layer. By resolving the velocity to 0.03 cm s−1 over 15 cm paths, it samples the dominant turbulent eddies responsible for Reynolds stress to within 50 cm of the bottom. Profiles through the inner boundary layer, from six sensor pods, of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, and Reynolds stress can be recorded for up 10 four months with a 2 Hz sample rate and 20 min averaging interval. We can study flow structure and spectra from as many as four event-triggered recordings of unaveraged samples, each lasting one hour, during periods of intense sediment transport. Acoustic transducer multiplexing permits 24 axes to be interfaced to a single receiving circuit. Electrical reversal of transducers in each axis eliminates zero drift. A deep-sea tripod supports the sensor array rigidly with minimum flow disturbance, yet releases on command for free vehicle recovery.
This paper describes the new release of the Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature analysis (MLOST version 3.5), which is used in operational monitoring and climate assessment activities by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The primary motivation for the latest version is the inclusion of a new land dataset that has several major improvements, including a more elaborate approach for addressing changes in station location, instrumentation, and siting conditions. The new version is broadly consistent with previous global analyses, exhibiting a trend of 0.076°C decade−1 since 1901, 0.162°C decade−1 since 1979, and widespread warming in both time periods. In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004°C decade−1 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface.
This paper describes the new release of the Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature analysis (MLOST version 3.5), which is used in operational monitoring and climate assessment activities by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The primary motivation for the latest version is the inclusion of a new land dataset that has several major improvements, including a more elaborate approach for addressing changes in station location, instrumentation, and siting conditions. The new version is broadly consistent with previous global analyses, exhibiting a trend of 0.076°C decade−1 since 1901, 0.162°C decade−1 since 1979, and widespread warming in both time periods. In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004°C decade−1 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface.
