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Extreme Weather Records
Compilation, Adjudication, and Publication
During the early to middle 2000s, in response to demand for more detail in wind damage surveying and recordkeeping, a team of atmospheric scientists and wind engineers developed the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. The EF scale, codified officially into National Weather Service (NWS) use in February 2007, offers wind speed estimates for a range of degrees of damage (DoDs) across each of 28 damage indicators (DIs). In practice, this has increased precision of damage surveys for tornado and thunderstorm-wind events. Still, concerns remain about both the representativeness of DoDs and the sufficiency of DIs, including the following: How dependable are the wind speed ranges for certain DoDs? What other DIs can be included? How can recent advances in mapping and documentation tools be integrated into the surveying process and the storm records? What changes should be made to the existing scale: why, how, and by whom? What alternative methods may be included or adapted for estimating tornado intensity?
To begin coordinated discussion on these and related topics, interested scientists and engineers (including some involved in EF scale development) organized a national EF Scale Stakeholders' Meeting, held on 2–3 March 2010 in Norman, Oklahoma. This article presents more detailed background information, summarizes the meeting, presents possibilities for the future of the EF scale and damage surveys, and solicits ideas from the engineering and atmospheric science communities.
During the early to middle 2000s, in response to demand for more detail in wind damage surveying and recordkeeping, a team of atmospheric scientists and wind engineers developed the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. The EF scale, codified officially into National Weather Service (NWS) use in February 2007, offers wind speed estimates for a range of degrees of damage (DoDs) across each of 28 damage indicators (DIs). In practice, this has increased precision of damage surveys for tornado and thunderstorm-wind events. Still, concerns remain about both the representativeness of DoDs and the sufficiency of DIs, including the following: How dependable are the wind speed ranges for certain DoDs? What other DIs can be included? How can recent advances in mapping and documentation tools be integrated into the surveying process and the storm records? What changes should be made to the existing scale: why, how, and by whom? What alternative methods may be included or adapted for estimating tornado intensity?
To begin coordinated discussion on these and related topics, interested scientists and engineers (including some involved in EF scale development) organized a national EF Scale Stakeholders' Meeting, held on 2–3 March 2010 in Norman, Oklahoma. This article presents more detailed background information, summarizes the meeting, presents possibilities for the future of the EF scale and damage surveys, and solicits ideas from the engineering and atmospheric science communities.
Abstract
The 2017 flash drought arrived without early warning and devastated the U.S. northern Great Plains region comprising Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota and the adjacent Canadian Prairies. The drought led to agricultural production losses exceeding $2.6 billion in the United States, widespread wildfires, poor air quality, damaged ecosystems, and degraded mental health. These effects motivated a multiagency collaboration among academic, tribal, state, and federal partners to evaluate drought early warning systems, coordination efforts, communication, and management practices with the goal of improving resilience and response to future droughts. This essay provides an overview on the causes, predictability, and historical context of the drought, the impacts of the drought, opportunities for drought early warning, and an inventory of lessons learned. Key lessons learned include the following: 1) building partnerships during nondrought periods helps ensure that proper relationships are in place for a coordinated and effective drought response; 2) drought information providers must improve their understanding of the annual decision cycles of all relevant sectors, including, and beyond, direct impacts in agricultural sectors; and 3) ongoing monitoring of environmental conditions is vital to drought early warning, given that seasonal forecasts lack skill over the northern Great Plains.
Abstract
The 2017 flash drought arrived without early warning and devastated the U.S. northern Great Plains region comprising Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota and the adjacent Canadian Prairies. The drought led to agricultural production losses exceeding $2.6 billion in the United States, widespread wildfires, poor air quality, damaged ecosystems, and degraded mental health. These effects motivated a multiagency collaboration among academic, tribal, state, and federal partners to evaluate drought early warning systems, coordination efforts, communication, and management practices with the goal of improving resilience and response to future droughts. This essay provides an overview on the causes, predictability, and historical context of the drought, the impacts of the drought, opportunities for drought early warning, and an inventory of lessons learned. Key lessons learned include the following: 1) building partnerships during nondrought periods helps ensure that proper relationships are in place for a coordinated and effective drought response; 2) drought information providers must improve their understanding of the annual decision cycles of all relevant sectors, including, and beyond, direct impacts in agricultural sectors; and 3) ongoing monitoring of environmental conditions is vital to drought early warning, given that seasonal forecasts lack skill over the northern Great Plains.
Abstract
During the 2014–15 academic year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the University of Oklahoma (OU) School of Meteorology jointly created the first SPC-led course at OU focused on connecting traditional theory taught in the academic curriculum with operational meteorology. This class, “Applications of Meteorological Theory to Severe-Thunderstorm Forecasting,” began in 2015. From 2015 through 2017, this spring–semester course has engaged 56 students in theoretical skills and related hands-on weather analysis and forecasting applications, taught by over a dozen meteorologists from the SPC, the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Following introductory material, which addresses many theoretical principles relevant to operational meteorology, numerous presentations and hands-on activities focused on instructors’ areas of expertise are provided to students. Topics include the following: storm-induced perturbation pressure gradients and their enhancement to supercells, tornadogenesis, tropical cyclone tornadoes, severe wind forecasting, surface and upper-air analyses and their interpretation, and forecast decision-making. This collaborative approach has strengthened bonds between meteorologists in operations, research, and academia, while introducing OU meteorology students to the vast array of severe thunderstorm forecast challenges, state-of-the-art operational and research tools, communication of high-impact weather information, and teamwork skills. The methods of collaborative instruction and experiential education have been found to strengthen both operational–academic relationships and students’ appreciation of the intricacies of severe thunderstorm forecasting, as detailed in this article.
Abstract
During the 2014–15 academic year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the University of Oklahoma (OU) School of Meteorology jointly created the first SPC-led course at OU focused on connecting traditional theory taught in the academic curriculum with operational meteorology. This class, “Applications of Meteorological Theory to Severe-Thunderstorm Forecasting,” began in 2015. From 2015 through 2017, this spring–semester course has engaged 56 students in theoretical skills and related hands-on weather analysis and forecasting applications, taught by over a dozen meteorologists from the SPC, the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Following introductory material, which addresses many theoretical principles relevant to operational meteorology, numerous presentations and hands-on activities focused on instructors’ areas of expertise are provided to students. Topics include the following: storm-induced perturbation pressure gradients and their enhancement to supercells, tornadogenesis, tropical cyclone tornadoes, severe wind forecasting, surface and upper-air analyses and their interpretation, and forecast decision-making. This collaborative approach has strengthened bonds between meteorologists in operations, research, and academia, while introducing OU meteorology students to the vast array of severe thunderstorm forecast challenges, state-of-the-art operational and research tools, communication of high-impact weather information, and teamwork skills. The methods of collaborative instruction and experiential education have been found to strengthen both operational–academic relationships and students’ appreciation of the intricacies of severe thunderstorm forecasting, as detailed in this article.
