Search Results
Abstract
Extreme heat is annually the deadliest weather hazard in the United States and is strongly amplified by climate change. In Florida, summer heat waves have increased in frequency and duration, exacerbating negative human health impacts on a state with a substantial older population and industries (e.g., agriculture) that require frequent outdoor work. However, the combined impacts of temperature and humidity (heat stress) have not been previously investigated. For eight Florida cities, this study constructs summer climatologies and trend analyses (1950–2020) of two heat stress metrics: heat index (HI) and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). While both incorporate temperature and humidity, WBGT also includes wind and solar radiation and is a more comprehensive measure of heat stress on the human body. With minor exceptions, results show increases in average summer daily maximum, mean, and minimum HI and WBGT throughout Florida. Daily minimum HI and WBGT exhibit statistically significant increases at all eight stations, emphasizing a hazardous rise in nighttime heat stress. Corresponding to other recent studies, HI and WBGT increases are largest in coastal subtropical locations in central and southern Florida (i.e., Daytona Beach, Tampa, Miami, and Key West) but exhibit no conclusive relationship with urbanization changes. Danger (103°–124°F; 39.4°–51.1°C) HI and high (>88°F; 31.1°C) WBGT summer days exhibit significant frequency increases across the state. Especially at coastal locations in the Florida Peninsula and Keys, danger HI and high WBGT days now account for >20% of total summer days, emphasizing a substantial escalation in heat stress, particularly since 2000.
Significance Statement
Extreme heat is the deadliest U.S. weather hazard. Although Florida is known for its warm and humid climate, it is not immune from heat stress (combined temperature and humidity) impacts on human health, particularly given its older population and prevalence of outdoor (e.g., agriculture) work. We analyze summer trends in two heat stress metrics at eight Florida cities since 1950. Results show that heat stress is increasing significantly, particularly at coastal locations in central and southern Florida and at night. The number of dangerous heat stress days per summer is also increasing across Florida, especially since 2000. Our analysis emphasizes that despite some acclimation, Florida is still susceptible to a serious escalation in extreme heat as the climate warms.
Abstract
Extreme heat is annually the deadliest weather hazard in the United States and is strongly amplified by climate change. In Florida, summer heat waves have increased in frequency and duration, exacerbating negative human health impacts on a state with a substantial older population and industries (e.g., agriculture) that require frequent outdoor work. However, the combined impacts of temperature and humidity (heat stress) have not been previously investigated. For eight Florida cities, this study constructs summer climatologies and trend analyses (1950–2020) of two heat stress metrics: heat index (HI) and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). While both incorporate temperature and humidity, WBGT also includes wind and solar radiation and is a more comprehensive measure of heat stress on the human body. With minor exceptions, results show increases in average summer daily maximum, mean, and minimum HI and WBGT throughout Florida. Daily minimum HI and WBGT exhibit statistically significant increases at all eight stations, emphasizing a hazardous rise in nighttime heat stress. Corresponding to other recent studies, HI and WBGT increases are largest in coastal subtropical locations in central and southern Florida (i.e., Daytona Beach, Tampa, Miami, and Key West) but exhibit no conclusive relationship with urbanization changes. Danger (103°–124°F; 39.4°–51.1°C) HI and high (>88°F; 31.1°C) WBGT summer days exhibit significant frequency increases across the state. Especially at coastal locations in the Florida Peninsula and Keys, danger HI and high WBGT days now account for >20% of total summer days, emphasizing a substantial escalation in heat stress, particularly since 2000.
Significance Statement
Extreme heat is the deadliest U.S. weather hazard. Although Florida is known for its warm and humid climate, it is not immune from heat stress (combined temperature and humidity) impacts on human health, particularly given its older population and prevalence of outdoor (e.g., agriculture) work. We analyze summer trends in two heat stress metrics at eight Florida cities since 1950. Results show that heat stress is increasing significantly, particularly at coastal locations in central and southern Florida and at night. The number of dangerous heat stress days per summer is also increasing across Florida, especially since 2000. Our analysis emphasizes that despite some acclimation, Florida is still susceptible to a serious escalation in extreme heat as the climate warms.
Abstract
Heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity and are strongly linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have examined heat waves in Florida, despite an older population and increasingly urbanized land areas that make it particularly susceptible to heat impacts. Heavy precipitation events are also becoming more frequent and intense; recent climate model simulations showed that heavy precipitation in the three days after a Florida heat wave follow these trends, yet the underlying dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms have not been investigated. In this study, a heat wave climatology and trend analysis are developed from 1950 to 2016 for seven major airports in Florida. Heat waves are defined based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. Results show that heat waves exhibit statistically significant increases in frequency and duration at most stations, especially for mean and minimum temperature events. Frequency and duration increases are most prominent at Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, and Key West. Heat waves in northern Florida are characterized by large-scale continental ridging, while heat waves in central and southern Florida are associated with a combination of a continental ridge and a westward extension of the Bermuda–Azores high. Heavy precipitation events that follow a heat wave are characterized by anomalously large ascent and moisture, as well as strong instability. Light precipitation events in northern Florida are characterized by advection of drier air from the continent, while over central and southern Florida, prolonged subsidence is the most important difference between heavy and light events.
Abstract
Heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity and are strongly linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have examined heat waves in Florida, despite an older population and increasingly urbanized land areas that make it particularly susceptible to heat impacts. Heavy precipitation events are also becoming more frequent and intense; recent climate model simulations showed that heavy precipitation in the three days after a Florida heat wave follow these trends, yet the underlying dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms have not been investigated. In this study, a heat wave climatology and trend analysis are developed from 1950 to 2016 for seven major airports in Florida. Heat waves are defined based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. Results show that heat waves exhibit statistically significant increases in frequency and duration at most stations, especially for mean and minimum temperature events. Frequency and duration increases are most prominent at Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, and Key West. Heat waves in northern Florida are characterized by large-scale continental ridging, while heat waves in central and southern Florida are associated with a combination of a continental ridge and a westward extension of the Bermuda–Azores high. Heavy precipitation events that follow a heat wave are characterized by anomalously large ascent and moisture, as well as strong instability. Light precipitation events in northern Florida are characterized by advection of drier air from the continent, while over central and southern Florida, prolonged subsidence is the most important difference between heavy and light events.
Abstract
Orographic wind channeling, defined as dynamically and thermally induced processes that force wind to blow along the axis of a valley, is a common occurrence along the St. Lawrence River Valley (SLRV) in Quebec, Canada, and produces substantial observed weather impacts at stations along the valley, including Montreal (CYUL). Cold-season observed north-northeast (n = 55) and south-southeast (n = 16) surface wind events at CYUL are identified from 1979 to 2002. The authors partition the north-northeast wind events into four groups using manual synoptic typing. Types A and D (“inland cyclone” and “northwestern cyclone”) are associated with strong lower-tropospheric geostrophic warm-air advection and near-surface pressure-driven channeling of cold air from the north-northeast, along the axis of the SLRV. Type C (“anticyclone”) shows no evidence of a surface cyclone and thus is the least associated with inclement weather at CYUL, whereas type B (“coastal cyclone”) is associated with predominantly forced wind channeling along the SLRV. Type D of the north-northeast wind events and all south-southeast wind events exhibit similar sea level pressure patterns. The respective magnitudes of the pressure gradients in the Lake Champlain Valley south of CYUL and the SLRV play a large role in determining the favored wind direction. Soundings of the various event types illustrate substantial differences in temperature structure, with a large near-surface temperature inversion particularly prevalent in north-northeast events. The results of this study may provide guidance in forecasting winds, temperatures, and observed weather in and around the SLRV, given certain synoptic-scale regimes.
Abstract
Orographic wind channeling, defined as dynamically and thermally induced processes that force wind to blow along the axis of a valley, is a common occurrence along the St. Lawrence River Valley (SLRV) in Quebec, Canada, and produces substantial observed weather impacts at stations along the valley, including Montreal (CYUL). Cold-season observed north-northeast (n = 55) and south-southeast (n = 16) surface wind events at CYUL are identified from 1979 to 2002. The authors partition the north-northeast wind events into four groups using manual synoptic typing. Types A and D (“inland cyclone” and “northwestern cyclone”) are associated with strong lower-tropospheric geostrophic warm-air advection and near-surface pressure-driven channeling of cold air from the north-northeast, along the axis of the SLRV. Type C (“anticyclone”) shows no evidence of a surface cyclone and thus is the least associated with inclement weather at CYUL, whereas type B (“coastal cyclone”) is associated with predominantly forced wind channeling along the SLRV. Type D of the north-northeast wind events and all south-southeast wind events exhibit similar sea level pressure patterns. The respective magnitudes of the pressure gradients in the Lake Champlain Valley south of CYUL and the SLRV play a large role in determining the favored wind direction. Soundings of the various event types illustrate substantial differences in temperature structure, with a large near-surface temperature inversion particularly prevalent in north-northeast events. The results of this study may provide guidance in forecasting winds, temperatures, and observed weather in and around the SLRV, given certain synoptic-scale regimes.
Abstract
Humid heat and associated heat stress have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration across the globe, particularly at lower latitudes. One of the more robust metrics for heat stress impacts on the human body is wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), because it incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT can typically only be measured using nonstandard instrumentation (e.g., black globe thermometers). However, estimation formulas have been developed to calculate WBGT using standard surface meteorological variables. This study evaluates several WBGT estimation formulas for the southeastern United States using North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) and U.S. Military measurement campaign data as verification. The estimation algorithm with the smallest mean absolute error was subsequently chosen to evaluate summer WBGT trends and extremes at 39 ASOS stations with long continuous (1950–2023) data records. Trend results showed that summer WBGT has increased throughout much of the southeastern United States, with larger increases at night than during the day. Although there were some surprisingly large WBGT trends at higher elevation locations far from coastlines, the greatest increases were predominantly located in the Florida Peninsula and Louisiana. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme (90th percentile) WBGTs were particularly stark in large coastal urban centers (e.g., New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami). Some locations like New Orleans and Tampa have experienced more than two additional extreme heat stress days and nights per decade since 1950, with an exponential escalation in the number of extreme summer nights during the most recent decade.
Significance Statement
Humid heat and associated heat stress pose threats to health in the moist subtropical climate of the southeastern United States. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a robust metric for heat stress but must be estimated using complex algorithms. We first evaluated the accuracy of three WBGT algorithms in the southeastern United States, using measured verification data. Subsequently, we used the most accurate algorithm to investigate WBGT trends and extremes since 1950 in 39 cities. Results showed that summer heat stress has increased throughout the region, especially at night. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme heat stress were most prevalent at urban coastal locations in Florida and Louisiana, emphasizing the impacts of increased urbanization and evaporation on heat stress.
Abstract
Humid heat and associated heat stress have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration across the globe, particularly at lower latitudes. One of the more robust metrics for heat stress impacts on the human body is wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), because it incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT can typically only be measured using nonstandard instrumentation (e.g., black globe thermometers). However, estimation formulas have been developed to calculate WBGT using standard surface meteorological variables. This study evaluates several WBGT estimation formulas for the southeastern United States using North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) and U.S. Military measurement campaign data as verification. The estimation algorithm with the smallest mean absolute error was subsequently chosen to evaluate summer WBGT trends and extremes at 39 ASOS stations with long continuous (1950–2023) data records. Trend results showed that summer WBGT has increased throughout much of the southeastern United States, with larger increases at night than during the day. Although there were some surprisingly large WBGT trends at higher elevation locations far from coastlines, the greatest increases were predominantly located in the Florida Peninsula and Louisiana. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme (90th percentile) WBGTs were particularly stark in large coastal urban centers (e.g., New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami). Some locations like New Orleans and Tampa have experienced more than two additional extreme heat stress days and nights per decade since 1950, with an exponential escalation in the number of extreme summer nights during the most recent decade.
Significance Statement
Humid heat and associated heat stress pose threats to health in the moist subtropical climate of the southeastern United States. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a robust metric for heat stress but must be estimated using complex algorithms. We first evaluated the accuracy of three WBGT algorithms in the southeastern United States, using measured verification data. Subsequently, we used the most accurate algorithm to investigate WBGT trends and extremes since 1950 in 39 cities. Results showed that summer heat stress has increased throughout the region, especially at night. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme heat stress were most prevalent at urban coastal locations in Florida and Louisiana, emphasizing the impacts of increased urbanization and evaporation on heat stress.