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Nicholas J. Leach, Sihan Li, Sarah Sparrow, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Fraser C. Lott, Antje Weisheimer, and Myles R. Allen
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Philip W. Mote, Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin, and Dean Vickers

Abstract

Computing resources donated by volunteers have generated the first superensemble of regional climate model results, in which the Hadley Centre Regional Model, version 3P (HadRM3P), and Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3P (HadAM3P), were implemented for the western United States at 25-km resolution. Over 136,000 valid and complete 1-yr runs have been generated to date: about 126,000 for 1960–2009 using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and 10,000 for 2030–49 using projected SSTs from a global model simulation. Ensemble members differ in initial conditions, model physics, and (potentially, for future runs) SSTs. This unprecedented confluence of high spatial resolution and large ensemble size allows high signal-to-noise ratio and more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper describes the experiment, compares model output with observations, shows select results for climate change simulations, and gives examples of the strength of the large ensemble size.

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Neven Stjepan Fučkar, Friederike E.L. Otto, Flavio Lehner, Izidine Pinto, Emma Howard, Sarah Sparrow, Sihan Li, and David Wallom
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Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Sang-Min Lee, Sarah Sparrow, Sihan Li, Fraser C. Lott, and Peter A. Stott
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Carly R. Tozer, James S. Risbey, Michael Grose, Didier P. Monselesan, Dougal T. Squire, Amanda S. Black, Doug Richardson, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, and David Wallom
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