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- Author or Editor: Simon Chang x
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Abstract
In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone track forecast, two preprocessing procedures are applied to an operational baroclinic forecast system at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei. The first replaces the environmental wind field near the storm by the previous 6-h.movement vector of the storm. The second incorporates a wavenumber-1 asymmetry constructed by matching the flow at the center of the asymmetry with the previous 6-h storm movement. Applying both processes to the 32 typhoon casts archived at the CWB in 1990 reduces the averaged 48-h forecast distance error from 474 to 351 km.
Multiexisting typhoons may have interactions among themselves that depend on relative intensity. Proper representation of the intensities in the initial bogus is important for the track forecast. Experiments with different initial bogus intensities are conducted on a case of dual typhoons-Nat and Mireille in 1991. The forecast using different bogus vortices according to the estimated intensities of each typhoon gives substantially smaller errors than that using identical bogus vortices. The impact of initial bogus vortex intensity on the track forecast for single typhoon cases is also illustrated.
Abstract
In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone track forecast, two preprocessing procedures are applied to an operational baroclinic forecast system at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei. The first replaces the environmental wind field near the storm by the previous 6-h.movement vector of the storm. The second incorporates a wavenumber-1 asymmetry constructed by matching the flow at the center of the asymmetry with the previous 6-h storm movement. Applying both processes to the 32 typhoon casts archived at the CWB in 1990 reduces the averaged 48-h forecast distance error from 474 to 351 km.
Multiexisting typhoons may have interactions among themselves that depend on relative intensity. Proper representation of the intensities in the initial bogus is important for the track forecast. Experiments with different initial bogus intensities are conducted on a case of dual typhoons-Nat and Mireille in 1991. The forecast using different bogus vortices according to the estimated intensities of each typhoon gives substantially smaller errors than that using identical bogus vortices. The impact of initial bogus vortex intensity on the track forecast for single typhoon cases is also illustrated.
Abstract
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A brief description of the Regional Forecast System (RFS) and the Mesoscale Forecast System (MFS) of the LAFS are presented in this paper. The RFS has a horizontal resolution of 90 km, depends on the GFS for boundary values, and produces forecast up to 48 h over the eastern parts of Asia and the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The MFS has a resolution of 45 km, uses RFS analysis and forecast as initial and boundary conditions, and produces 24-h forecasts for Taiwan and its immediate vicinity. Model configurations, numerics, physical parameterizations, performance statistics, and two significant weather cases of the two forecast systems are discussed. Future improvements and new plans will also be given.
Abstract
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A brief description of the Regional Forecast System (RFS) and the Mesoscale Forecast System (MFS) of the LAFS are presented in this paper. The RFS has a horizontal resolution of 90 km, depends on the GFS for boundary values, and produces forecast up to 48 h over the eastern parts of Asia and the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The MFS has a resolution of 45 km, uses RFS analysis and forecast as initial and boundary conditions, and produces 24-h forecasts for Taiwan and its immediate vicinity. Model configurations, numerics, physical parameterizations, performance statistics, and two significant weather cases of the two forecast systems are discussed. Future improvements and new plans will also be given.
