Abstract

A structured methodology for detecting the presence of split cold fronts in an operational forecast environment is developed and applied to a case in which a split front passed over a region of cold air damming in the southeastern United States. A real-time mesoscale model and various products from the WSR-88D—including the velocity–azimuth display wind profile (VWP) and hodograph products, plus a thermal advection retrieval scheme applied to the VWP data—are used to study this split front and an associated convective rainband that occurred on 19 December 1995.

Wet-bulb temperature and vertical motion forecasts at 700 hPa from the model revealed the arc-shaped split front 300–500 km ahead of the surface cold front. As this midtropospheric front passed across the surface warm front and entered the cold air damming region, model vertical cross-section analyses showed that it created a deep elevated layer of potential instability. Furthermore, an ageostrophic transverse circulation associated with the split front provided the lifting mechanism for releasing this instability as deep convection. Analysis of the absolute geostrophic momentum field provided greater understanding of the structure of the split front and a deep tropospheric frontal system to its west that connected with the surface cold front.

An “S–inverted S” pattern in the zero isodop on WSR-88D radial velocity displays indicative of wind backing above wind veering suggested the presence of the split front in the observations (as did the hodographs). Detection of the passage of the split front could be discerned from temporal changes in the vertical profile of the winds, namely by the appearance of midlevel backing of the winds in VWP time–height displays. Because of the subtlety of this backing and the need to be more quantitative, a temperature advection retrieval scheme using VWP data was developed. The complex evolving structure of the split front was revealed with this technique. Results from this retrieval method were judged to be meteorologically meaningful, to exhibit excellent time–space continuity, and to compare reasonably well with the frontal structures evident in the mesoscale model forecasts. The thermal advection scheme can easily be made to function in operations, as long as there is real-time access to level II radar data.

Abstract

It is demonstrated that it is possible to perform informative mesoanalysis of summertime convergence boundaries in the southeastern United States by combining capabilities of the new WSR-88D Doppler radar with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite imagery and conventional surface data. Observed phenomena are identified as thunderstorm outflow boundaries, sea-breeze fronts, horizontal convective rolls, deep synoptic-scale fronts, prefrontal troughs, shallow fronts (airmass boundaries lacking upper-level support), stationary and propagating boundaries of unknown origin, and the “Piedmont trough,” which is apparently a new feature discovered in the course of this research. The transition zone between the Piedmont and the Coastal Plain was found to be a preferred location for convergence boundaries. An unexpectedly far inland advance of the sea breeze to central North Carolina occurred in some instances.

The very sensitive “clear air mode” of the WSR-88D radar, when used in combination with high-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface mesoanalysis, made it possible to see that so-called random thunderstorm activity is either directly initiated or strongly controlled by such convergence features. Many of these features would be too weak to detect using conventional radar. The ability to perform such mesoanalyses with operational data hinges on using all of the observing tools available, since some boundaries are either ambiguous or imperceptible in visible satellite imagery, most are nearly impossible to find in conventional surface data alone, and radar suffers from well-known sampling problems at large range.

The role of radar-detected interactions between convergence boundaries in initiating convection was found to be significantly different than what has been reported in Colorado by Wilson and Schreiber. Fronts in North Carolina produced convective cells of at least 40 dBZ in every instance without the need to interact with other boundaries, whereas troughs and outflow boundaries did so 86% and 70% of the time, respectively. Boundary interactions also occur significantly more often than in Colorado, and those interactions tend to result in deep convection more frequently irrespective of their motion. These results indicate that thunderstorm nowcasting may be possible in North Carolina and surrounding regions.

Abstract

Mesoscale gravity waves display periods of 1–4 h, have wavelengths of 50–500 km, and can have important effects upon the sensible weather. Real-time prediction, detection, and nowcasting of these mesoscale phenomena is shown to be feasible, due to recent major advances in operational observing and modeling systems. The ability to predict the likelihood of a gravity wave event rests upon recognizing the synoptic flow pattern in which such waves are consistently found to occur. The delineation of the most likely region for wave activity can be further refined by computing simple indicators of unbalanced flow and conducting a cursory search for a suitable wave “duct” with meso-Eta Model data. Particular emphasis should be placed on propagating unbalanced fields.

Whenever and wherever a suitable gravity wave environment is found, the Automated Surface Observing System pressure data should be carefully monitored for evidence of gravity wave activity. An automated gravity wave detection system is developed. It is shown that application of a time-to-space conversion adaptation of the Barnes objective analysis scheme to bandpass-filtered 5-min surface observations enables the detection of gravity waves with scales as small as 150 km and their separation from smaller-scale convective phenomena. This scheme requires accurate knowledge of the wave propagation velocity. A method is presented and successfully tested for this purpose, which is based on an adaptation of wave-ducting theory to the mesoscale model forecast fields.

The proposed procedure is demonstrated with a gravity wave event that occurred during STORM-FEST. A solitary wave of depression formed as an upper-level jet streak approached an inflection axis in the diffluent height field downstream of the Rocky Mountains. This wave generation region was diagnosed from mesoscale model forecasts as being unbalanced. A wave duct was diagnosed north of a warm front in both the model forecasts and the STORM-FEST soundings over the region traversed by the observed waves. The analyzed pressure and wind perturbation fields successfully portray the evolution of the gravity wave into a wave train as strong thunderstorms developed with the wave. The mesoscale model produced a gravity wave similar in most respects to that analyzed prior to the development of convection. These results suggest that mesoscale gravity waves can be predicted and analyzed with operationally available data and numerical model guidance.

Abstract

An automated near-real-time system for the surface analysis of gravity waves and other mesoscale phenomena is developed, tested, and applied to several cases. Five-minute observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) network provide the primary source of data for the mesoanalysis system. ASOS time series data are downloaded, subjected to considerable quality control, bandpass filtered, and objectively analyzed using a time-to-space conversion (TSC) adaptation of the traditional Barnes scheme. The resultant analyses, which can resolve features in the ASOS network with wavelengths as short as 150 km and at 15-min intervals, are made available as animated contoured fields.

Even though this mesoanalysis system was designed primarily for gravity wave detection, it is capable of resolving other kinds of mesoscale phenomena and allowing the analyst to monitor their changing structure. The effectiveness of the system is demonstrated with two recent events selected from several cases that have been analyzed. The first case consisted of a gravity wave train that propagated through the Ohio River valley and produced multiple precipitation bands. The second event involved a complex family of mesohighs and wake lows associated with a convective system over the southeastern United States. Variations in the surface wind field and precipitation distribution are related to the mesoscale pressure field in both cases.

The ability of this mesoanalysis system to monitor mesoscale phenomena resides in the successful application of TSC principles to high temporal resolution surface data. Although the TSC assumption may not be strictly valid in more complex situations, for many applications this mesoanalysis system offers critical information needed for making accurate nowcasts, with the caveat that the means by which ASOS 5-min data are made available can be improved.

Abstract

Appalachian cold-air damming (CAD) is characterized by the development of a cool, stable air mass that is advected southwestward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains by low-level ageostrophic flow. Operational forecasters have identified the demise of CAD as a major forecasting challenge, in part because numerical weather prediction models have a tendency to erode the cold air too quickly. Previous studies have considered the role of clouds and precipitation in the initiation and maintenance of CAD; generally, precipitation is thought to reinforce CAD due to the cooling and stabilization resulting from evaporation. Here, the impact of precipitation on CAD during a situation where the lower-tropospheric air mass was near saturation prior to the arrival of precipitation is considered.

Previous studies have indicated that the passage of a cold front can bring about CAD demise, as the synoptic-scale flow becomes northwesterly behind the front and low-level stable air is scoured. Additional complexity is evident in the case of split cold fronts (or cold fronts aloft). In these situations, precipitation bands are found well to the east of the surface cold front and may be accompanied by severe weather. Here, the impact of a split-front rainband on a mature CAD event from 14 February 2000 is investigated.

The coastal front, marking the eastern boundary of the CAD region, made significant inland progress as the split-front rainband passed. Computations from Eta Model forecast fields revealed substantial latent heat release above the cold dome during the passage of the rainband. The CAD cold dome persisted longer in an MM5 model numerical simulation in which the effects of latent heat were withheld relative to both a full-physics control run and to observations. A third model simulation where the low levels of the cold dome were initially dried showed that once saturation occurred, the cold dome began to erode. Analysis of model output and observations suggests that, in this case, precipitation contributed to the retreat of the cold dome through lower-tropospheric pressure falls, an isallobaric wind response, and a resultant inland jump of the coastal front.

Abstract

A study of three years of GOES satellite imagery has been conducted to determine whether synthesis of the imagery with surface diagnostic analyses may prove useful for predicting the precise location and time of formation of squall lines generated by a particular type of frontal circulation transverse to surface cold fronts. Existence of this circulation is inferred from the development of a thin Line of shallow Convection clouds (LC) along the front simultaneously with that of a mesoscale (<100 km wide) Clear Zone (CZ) immediately behind the front and at the leading edge of a large area of stratus clouds. The observations suggest that a thermally direct circulation transverse to the surface cold front generated the line convection and clear zone (in the upward and downward branches of the circulation, respectively) in all 15 cases which met the strict criteria for an LC/CZ.

Squall lines were observed to form from the LC in 10 of the 15 cases examined, and nearly always within 90 min following the time when the CZ reached its maximum width. In addition, initial cumulonimbus development always occurred within 100 km of the diagnosed frontogenesis center at the LC. Therefore, this study suggests that both the timing and location of such squall lines should be predictable with very high accuracy. It is also shown that thermodynamic instability was insufficient for the formation of deep convection in the five non-thunderstorm cases.

Our results also strongly support the hypothesis of Koch (1984) that this mesoscale circulation was generated by differential sensible heating acting in conjunction with geostrophic deformation effects. The contrast of cloudy skies behind the front (prior to CZ formation) with nearly clear skies ahead of the front is largely responsible for creation of the differential heating pattern. This suggests that forecasters should watch for such cloud patterns near cold fronts.

Synoptic climatological conditions favoring the occurrence of this relatively rare phenomenon are also identified. The LC/CZ appears during the afternoon almost solely over the Great Plains states during spring and autumn. The line convection was found in all but one case to be parallel to, and either along or on the cyclonic side of, a prefrontal 850 mb jet. Although the LC/CZ is usually found on the anticyclonic side of upper-level jet streaks, it does not seem to prefer any particular jet quadrant. Diagnosis of the Sawyer-Eliassen equation for one case suggested that the mesoscale circulation was linked to a thermally direct circulation cell associated with the upper-level frontal zone.

The information provided in this paper should be valuable to the operational forecaster concerned with having some guidance about specific mesoscale trigger mechanisms for squall lines. This phenomenon can be isolated with conventional surface and satellite data in real time to provide accurate and timely forecasts of the formation of squall line activity.

Abstract

Planning and managing commercial airplane routes to avoid thunderstorms requires very skillful and frequently updated 0–8-h forecasts of convection. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is well suited for this purpose, being initialized hourly and providing explicit forecasts of convection out to 15 h. However, because of difficulties with depicting convection at the time of model initialization and shortly thereafter (i.e., during model spinup), relatively simple extrapolation techniques, on average, perform better than the HRRR at 0–2-h lead times. Thus, recently developed nowcasting techniques blend extrapolation-based forecasts with numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based forecasts, heavily weighting the extrapolation forecasts at 0–2-h lead times and transitioning emphasis to the NWP-based forecasts at the later lead times. In this study, a new approach to applying different weights to blend extrapolation and model forecasts based on intensities and forecast times is applied and tested. An image-processing method of morphing between extrapolation and model forecasts to create nowcasts is described and the skill is compared to extrapolation forecasts and forecasts from the HRRR. The new approach is called salient cross dissolve (Sal CD), which is compared to a commonly used method called linear cross dissolve (Lin CD). Examinations of forecasts and observations of the maximum altitude of echo-top heights ≥18 dBZ and measurement of forecast skill using neighborhood-based methods shows that Sal CD significantly improves upon Lin CD, as well as the HRRR at 2–5-h lead times.

Abstract

This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and in 1-km resolution mesoanalyses. Mesoscale forcing for the rapid development of severe convection began with the arrival of a strong upper-level jet streak with pronounced divergence in its left exit region and associated intensification of the low-level flow to the south of a pronounced warm front. The resultant increase in stretching deformation along the front occurred in association with warming immediately to its south as low-level clouds dissipated. This created a narrow ribbon of intense frontogenesis and a rapid increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) within 75 min of tornadogenesis. The Windsor, Colorado, storm formed at the juncture of this warm frontogenesis zone and a developing dryline. Storm-relative helicity suddenly increased to large values during this pretornadic period as a midtropospheric layer of strong southeasterly winds descended to low levels. The following events also occurred simultaneously within this short period of time: a pronounced decrease in midtropospheric equivalent potential temperature θ _e accompanying the descending jet, an increase in low-level θ _e associated with the surface sensible heating, and elimination of the capping inversion and convective inhibition. The simultaneous nature of these rapid changes over such a short period of time, not fully captured in Storm Prediction Center mesoanalyses, was likely critical in generating this unusual tornadic event.