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Ted L. Tsui and Ronald J. Miller


The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) official and objective aid forecasts for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 1978–85 are evaluated. Forecast accuracy is measured by the forecast error, cross-track error and along-track error with respect to the best track of the tropical cyclone. In addition, data are stratified by the storm's intensity for further detailed comparisons. Considering all stratifications, two aids emerged as best for the entire data period: the Half Persistence and Climatology (HPAC) and the One-way interactive Tropical Cyclone Model (OTCM). The HPAC is superior to OTCM for the tropical storm forecasts, but OTCM is superior for the typhoon and super-typhoon forecasts.

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Ronald J. Miller, Ann J. Schrader, Charles R. Sampson, and Ted L. Tsui


The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical cyclone forecasts. The system graphically displays tropical cyclone track, fix, and forecast information, as well as synoptic fields and rawinsonde observations. Using the data base, ATCF also generates menages such as the tropical cyclone warning message. The computing power of the personal computer allows ATCF to produce products such as western North Pacific CLIPER and objective best track guidance. ATCF automatically saves all tropical cyclone data, computes real-time and post-storm forecast error statistics, and allows forecasters access to any past track data since 1945. ATCF standardizes the tropical cyclone forecasting procedure, ensuring that forecasters will not neglect consideration of important decisional steps. It also automates consuming tasks such as manual plotting of forecasts and logging data on clipboards. The system, while designed specifically for JTWC, is extremely flexible and has been distributed outside the U.S. Navy.

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