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  • Author or Editor: Todd D. Ringler x
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Qing Yang
,
L. Ruby Leung
,
Sara A. Rauscher
,
Todd D. Ringler
, and
Mark A. Taylor

Abstract

This study investigates the moisture budgets and resolution dependency of precipitation extremes in an aquaplanet framework based on the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4). Moisture budgets from simulations using two different dynamical cores, the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) and High Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME), but the same physics parameterizations suggest that during precipitation extremes the intensity of precipitation is approximately balanced by the vertical advective moisture transport. The resolution dependency in extremes from simulations at their native grid resolution originates from that of vertical moisture transport, which is mainly explained by changes in dynamics (related to vertical velocity ω) with resolution. When assessed at the same grid scale by area-weighted averaging the fine-resolution simulations to the coarse grids, simulations with either dynamical core still demonstrate resolution dependency in extreme precipitation with no convergence over the tropics, but convergence occurs at a wide range of latitudes over the extratropics. The use of lower temporal frequency data (i.e., daily vs 6 hourly) reduces the resolution dependency. Although thermodynamic (moisture) changes become significant in offsetting the effect of dynamics when assessed at the same grid scale, especially over the extratropics, changes in dynamics with resolution are still large and explain most of the resolution dependency during extremes. This suggests that the effects of subgrid-scale variability of ω and vertical moisture transport during extremes are not adequately parameterized by the model at coarse resolution. The aquaplanet framework and analysis described in this study provide an important metric for assessing sensitivities of cloud parameterizations to spatial resolution and dynamical cores under extreme conditions.

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Sara A. Rauscher
,
Todd D. Ringler
,
William C. Skamarock
, and
Arthur A. Mirin

Abstract

Results from aquaplanet experiments performed using the Model for Prediction across Scales (MPAS) hydrostatic dynamical core implemented within the Department of Energy (DOE)–NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) are presented. MPAS is an unstructured-grid approach to climate system modeling that supports both quasi-uniform and variable-resolution meshing of the sphere based on conforming grids. Using quasi-uniform simulations at resolutions of 30, 60, 120, and 240 km, the authors evaluate the performance of CAM-MPAS via its kinetic energy spectra, general circulation, and precipitation characteristics. By analyzing an additional variable-resolution simulation with grid spacing that varies from 30 km in a spherical, continental-sized equatorial region to 240 km elsewhere, the CAM-MPAS’s potential for use as a regional climate simulation tool is explored.

Similar to other quasi-uniform aquaplanet simulations, tropical precipitation increases with resolution, indicating the resolution sensitivity of the physical parameterizations. Comparison with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core suggests a weaker tropical circulation in the CAM-MPAS simulations, which is evident in reduced tropical precipitation and a weaker Hadley circulation. In the variable-resolution simulation, the kinetic energy spectrum within the high-resolution region closely resembles the quasi-uniform 30-km simulation, indicating a robust simulation of the fluid dynamics. As suggested by the quasi-uniform simulations, the CAM4 physics behave differently in the high and low resolution regions. A positive precipitation anomaly occurs on the western edge of the high-resolution region, exciting a Gill-type response; this zonal asymmetry represents the errors incurred in a variable resolution setting. When paired with a multiresolution mesh, the aquaplanet test case offers an exceptional opportunity to examine the response of physical parameterizations to grid resolution.

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Xiaoyan Jiang
,
Sara A. Rauscher
,
Todd D. Ringler
,
David M. Lawrence
,
A. Park Williams
,
Craig D. Allen
,
Allison L. Steiner
,
D. Michael Cai
, and
Nate G. McDowell

Abstract

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

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Travis A. O'Brien
,
Fuyu Li
,
William D. Collins
,
Sara A. Rauscher
,
Todd D. Ringler
,
Mark Taylor
,
Samson M. Hagos
, and
L. Ruby Leung

Abstract

Observations of robust scaling behavior in clouds and precipitation are used to derive constraints on how partitioning of precipitation should change with model resolution. Analysis indicates that 90%–99% of stratiform precipitation should occur in clouds that are resolvable by contemporary climate models (e.g., with 200-km or finer grid spacing). Furthermore, this resolved fraction of stratiform precipitation should increase sharply with resolution, such that effectively all stratiform precipitation should be resolvable above scales of ~50 km. It is shown that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) also exhibit the robust cloud and precipitation scaling behavior that is present in observations, yet the resolved fraction of stratiform precipitation actually decreases with increasing model resolution. A suite of experiments with multiple dynamical cores provides strong evidence that this “scale-incognizant” behavior originates in one of the CAM4 parameterizations. An additional set of sensitivity experiments rules out both convection parameterizations, and by a process of elimination these results implicate the stratiform cloud and precipitation parameterization. Tests with the CAM5 physics package show improvements in the resolution dependence of resolved cloud fraction and resolved stratiform precipitation fraction.

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Koichi Sakaguchi
,
L. Ruby Leung
,
Chun Zhao
,
Qing Yang
,
Jian Lu
,
Samson Hagos
,
Sara A. Rauscher
,
Li Dong
,
Todd D. Ringler
, and
Peter H. Lauritzen

Abstract

This study presents a diagnosis of a multiresolution approach using the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) for simulating regional climate. Four Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments were conducted for 1999–2009. In the first two experiments, MPAS-A was configured using global quasi-uniform grids at 120- and 30-km grid spacing. In the other two experiments, MPAS-A was configured using variable-resolution (VR) mesh with local refinement at 30 km over North America and South America and embedded in a quasi-uniform domain at 120 km elsewhere. Precipitation and related fields in the four simulations are examined to determine how well the VRs reproduce the features simulated by the globally high-resolution model in the refined domain. In previous analyses of idealized aquaplanet simulations, characteristics of the global high-resolution simulation in moist processes developed only near the boundary of the refined region. In contrast, AMIP simulations with VR grids can reproduce high-resolution characteristics across the refined domain, particularly in South America. This finding indicates the importance of finely resolved lower boundary forcings such as topography and surface heterogeneity for regional climate and demonstrates the ability of the MPAS-A VR to replicate the large-scale moisture transport as simulated in the quasi-uniform high-resolution model. Upscale effects from the high-resolution regions on a large-scale circulation outside the refined domain are observed, but the effects are mainly limited to northeastern Asia during the warm season. Together, the results support the multiresolution approach as a computationally efficient and physically consistent method for modeling regional climate.

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Hyein Jeong
,
Xylar S. Asay-Davis
,
Adrian K. Turner
,
Darin S. Comeau
,
Stephen F. Price
,
Ryan P. Abernathey
,
Milena Veneziani
,
Mark R. Petersen
,
Matthew J. Hoffman
,
Matthew R. Mazloff
, and
Todd D. Ringler

Abstract

The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea ice formation and melting play the dominant role. Even though ice-shelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water-mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that ice-shelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting cause increased Antarctic sea ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning.

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