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- Author or Editor: U. Lohmann x
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Abstract
Tropical land mean surface air temperature and precipitation responses to the eruptions of El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, as simulated by the atmosphere-only GCMs (AMIP) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are examined and compared to three observational datasets. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was statistically separated from the volcanic signal in all time series. Focusing on the ENSO signal, it was found that the 17 investigated AMIP models successfully simulate the observed 4-month delay in the temperature responses to the ENSO phase but simulate somewhat too-fast precipitation responses during the El Niño onset stage. The observed correlation between temperature and ENSO phase (correlation coefficient of 0.75) is generally captured well by the models (simulated correlation of 0.71 and ensemble means of 0.61–0.83). For precipitation, mean correlations with the ENSO phase are −0.59 for observations and −0.53 for the models, with individual ensemble members having correlations as low as −0.26. Observed, ENSO-removed tropical land temperature and precipitation decrease by about 0.35 K and 0.25 mm day−1 after the Pinatubo eruption, while no significant decrease in either variable was observed after El Chichón. The AMIP models generally capture this behavior despite a tendency to overestimate the precipitation response to El Chichón. Scatter is substantial, both across models and across ensemble members of individual models. Natural variability thus may still play a prominent role despite the strong volcanic forcing.
Abstract
Tropical land mean surface air temperature and precipitation responses to the eruptions of El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, as simulated by the atmosphere-only GCMs (AMIP) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are examined and compared to three observational datasets. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was statistically separated from the volcanic signal in all time series. Focusing on the ENSO signal, it was found that the 17 investigated AMIP models successfully simulate the observed 4-month delay in the temperature responses to the ENSO phase but simulate somewhat too-fast precipitation responses during the El Niño onset stage. The observed correlation between temperature and ENSO phase (correlation coefficient of 0.75) is generally captured well by the models (simulated correlation of 0.71 and ensemble means of 0.61–0.83). For precipitation, mean correlations with the ENSO phase are −0.59 for observations and −0.53 for the models, with individual ensemble members having correlations as low as −0.26. Observed, ENSO-removed tropical land temperature and precipitation decrease by about 0.35 K and 0.25 mm day−1 after the Pinatubo eruption, while no significant decrease in either variable was observed after El Chichón. The AMIP models generally capture this behavior despite a tendency to overestimate the precipitation response to El Chichón. Scatter is substantial, both across models and across ensemble members of individual models. Natural variability thus may still play a prominent role despite the strong volcanic forcing.
Abstract
Cirrus clouds impact the planetary energy balance and upper-tropospheric water vapor transport and are therefore relevant for climate. In this study cirrus clouds at temperatures colder than −40°C simulated by the ECHAM–Hamburg Aerosol Module (ECHAM-HAM) general circulation model are compared to Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite data. The model captures the general cloud cover pattern and reproduces the observed median ice water content within a factor of 2, while extinction is overestimated by about a factor of 3 as revealed by temperature-dependent frequency histograms. Two distinct types of cirrus clouds are found: in situ–formed cirrus dominating at temperatures colder than −55°C and liquid-origin cirrus dominating at temperatures warmer than −55°C. The latter cirrus form in anvils of deep convective clouds or by glaciation of mixed-phase clouds, leading to high ice crystal number concentrations. They are associated with extinction coefficients and ice water content of up to 1 km−1 and 0.1 g m−3, respectively, while the in situ–formed cirrus are associated with smaller extinction coefficients and ice water content. In situ–formed cirrus are nucleated either heterogeneously or homogeneously. The simulated homogeneous ice crystals are similar to liquid-origin cirrus, which are associated with high ice crystal number concentrations. On the contrary, heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals appear in smaller number concentrations. However, ice crystal aggregation and depositional growth smooth the differences between several formation mechanisms, making the attribution to a specific ice nucleation mechanism challenging.
Abstract
Cirrus clouds impact the planetary energy balance and upper-tropospheric water vapor transport and are therefore relevant for climate. In this study cirrus clouds at temperatures colder than −40°C simulated by the ECHAM–Hamburg Aerosol Module (ECHAM-HAM) general circulation model are compared to Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite data. The model captures the general cloud cover pattern and reproduces the observed median ice water content within a factor of 2, while extinction is overestimated by about a factor of 3 as revealed by temperature-dependent frequency histograms. Two distinct types of cirrus clouds are found: in situ–formed cirrus dominating at temperatures colder than −55°C and liquid-origin cirrus dominating at temperatures warmer than −55°C. The latter cirrus form in anvils of deep convective clouds or by glaciation of mixed-phase clouds, leading to high ice crystal number concentrations. They are associated with extinction coefficients and ice water content of up to 1 km−1 and 0.1 g m−3, respectively, while the in situ–formed cirrus are associated with smaller extinction coefficients and ice water content. In situ–formed cirrus are nucleated either heterogeneously or homogeneously. The simulated homogeneous ice crystals are similar to liquid-origin cirrus, which are associated with high ice crystal number concentrations. On the contrary, heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals appear in smaller number concentrations. However, ice crystal aggregation and depositional growth smooth the differences between several formation mechanisms, making the attribution to a specific ice nucleation mechanism challenging.
Abstract
We investigate the circumstances under which the Saharan air layer (SAL) has a negative impact on the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. Using hurricane tracking, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and meteorological analyses, we analyze the interaction of the SAL with 52 named TCs that formed over the east and central Atlantic south of the Cape Verde islands between 2004 and 2017. Following the categorization of negative SAL influences on TC intensification by Dunion and Velden, only 21% of the investigated storms can be classified (28% of all storms that encountered the SAL), and 21% of the storms continue to intensify despite the presence of the SAL. We show that among TCs that encounter the SAL, there is evidence supporting a weak negative correlation between the magnitude of TC intensification and the ambient AOD. However, above-average Saharan dust abundance in the vicinity of TCs is not a good independent indicator for storm nonintensification. To better understand the specific processes involved, a composite study is carried out, contrasting storms that intensify in the presence of the SAL against those that do not. We find that sheared air masses on the north side and drier air from the northeast of the storm early on during its lifetime, in addition to higher AOD, are associated with TC nonintensification in proximity to the SAL.
Abstract
We investigate the circumstances under which the Saharan air layer (SAL) has a negative impact on the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. Using hurricane tracking, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and meteorological analyses, we analyze the interaction of the SAL with 52 named TCs that formed over the east and central Atlantic south of the Cape Verde islands between 2004 and 2017. Following the categorization of negative SAL influences on TC intensification by Dunion and Velden, only 21% of the investigated storms can be classified (28% of all storms that encountered the SAL), and 21% of the storms continue to intensify despite the presence of the SAL. We show that among TCs that encounter the SAL, there is evidence supporting a weak negative correlation between the magnitude of TC intensification and the ambient AOD. However, above-average Saharan dust abundance in the vicinity of TCs is not a good independent indicator for storm nonintensification. To better understand the specific processes involved, a composite study is carried out, contrasting storms that intensify in the presence of the SAL against those that do not. We find that sheared air masses on the north side and drier air from the northeast of the storm early on during its lifetime, in addition to higher AOD, are associated with TC nonintensification in proximity to the SAL.
