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Wassila M. Thiaw
and
Vadlamani B. Kumar

Abstract

Drought is one of the leading causes of death in Africa because of its impact on access to sanitary water and food. This challenge has mobilized the international community to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water and, more recently, on health. These initiatives require updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA’s African Desk in FEWS and in enhancing the capacity of African institutions to improve forecasts. The African Desk was established in 1994 to provide services to U.S. agencies and African institutions. Emphasis is on the operational products across all time scales from weather to climate forecasts in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real-time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts. The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socioeconomic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These capabilities along with forecast skill assessment, verifications, and regional hazards outlooks for food security are discussed. Finally, the African Desk residency training program, an effort aimed at enhancing the capacity of African institutions to improve forecasts, and supported by this seamless approach to operational forecasting, is described.

Full access
Wassila M. Thiaw
,
A. Sezin Tokar
,
R. Kumar Kolli
, and
Ismail Gunes
Full access
Wassila M. Thiaw
,
Endalkachew Bekele
,
Sarah N. Diouf
,
David G. Dewitt
,
Ousmane Ndiaye
,
Marie Khemesse Ngom Ndiaye
,
Papa Ngor Ndiaye
,
Nar Diene
,
Mariama Diouf
,
Anta Diaw
,
Siga Diop
,
Fanding Badj
, and
Abdoulaye Diouf

Abstract

Heat is one of the most serious hazards in the world as it affects human health and is extremely dangerous to vulnerable populations such as the elderly, people with preexisting cardiovascular or respiratory conditions, and even healthy people with prolonged sunlight exposure during heat waves. As the globe has warmed over the past several decades, extreme heat has become more frequent and intense than ever before, and Africa, especially the Sahel in West Africa, is one of the regions of the world where heat is a major public health concern exacerbated by livelihood activities during the heat season. Yet, there is a major gap in monitoring and forecasting heat waves in Africa. This paper describes NOAA’s role in enabling heat–health early warning in Africa, working with meteorological services and health professionals. Emphasis is on real-time heat wave forecasting at week 2, including the postprocessing of the NCEP model outputs, and providing the information to the meteorological services in Africa to serve as guidance in national heat wave forecasts. In addition, the paper describes the end-to-end process of heat hazard outlooks and translating the forecasts into early action and early planning to reduce heat risk to human health. Furthermore, the paper addresses the very important aspect of capacity development tailored at enhancing forecasters’ skills to prepare and issue heat wave forecasts and training of a cadre of health professionals to work with meteorologists to coproduce heat–health bulletins and to issue heat–health early warnings.

Full access
Peter Bissolli
,
Catherine Ganter
,
Tim Li
,
Ademe Mekonnen
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
Eric J. Alfaro
,
Lincoln M. Alves
,
Jorge A. Amador
,
B. Andrade
,
Francisco Argeñalso
,
P. Asgarzadeh
,
Julian Baez
,
Reuben Barakiza
,
M. Yu. Bardin
,
Mikhail Bardin
,
Oliver Bochníček
,
Brandon Bukunt
,
Blanca Calderón
,
Jayaka D. Campbell
,
Elise Chandler
,
Ladislaus Chang’a
,
Vincent Y. S. Cheng
,
Leonardo A. Clarke
,
Kris Correa
,
Catalina Cortés
,
Felipe Costa
,
A.P.M.A. Cunha
,
Mesut Demircan
,
K. R. Dhurmea
,
A. Diawara
,
Sarah Diouf
,
Dashkhuu Dulamsuren
,
M. ElKharrim
,
Jhan-Carlo Espinoza
,
A. Fazl-Kazem
,
Chris Fenimore
,
Steven Fuhrman
,
Karin Gleason
,
Charles “Chip” P. Guard
,
Samson Hagos
,
Mizuki Hanafusa
,
H. R. Hasannezhad
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
,
Hugo G. Hidalgo
,
J. A. Ijampy
,
Gyo Soon Im
,
Annie C. Joseph
,
G. Jumaux
,
K. R. Kabidi
,
P-H. Kamsu-Tamo
,
John Kennedy
,
Valentina Khan
,
Mai Van Khiem
,
Philemon King’uza
,
Natalia N. Korshunova
,
A. C. Kruger
,
Hoang Phuc Lam
,
Mark A. Lander
,
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
,
Tsz-Cheung Lee
,
Kinson H. Y. Leung
,
Gregor Macara
,
Jostein Mamen
,
José A. Marengo
,
Charlotte McBride
,
Noelia Misevicius
,
Aurel Moise
,
Jorge Molina-Carpio
,
Natali Mora
,
Awatif E. Mostafa
,
Habiba Mtongori
,
Charles Mutai
,
O. Ndiaye
,
Juan José Nieto
,
Latifa Nyembo
,
Patricia Nying’uro
,
Xiao Pan
,
Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez
,
David Phillips
,
Brad Pugh
,
Madhavan Rajeevan
,
M. L. Rakotonirina
,
Andrea M. Ramos
,
M. Robjhon
,
Camino Rodriguez
,
Guisado Rodriguez
,
Josyane Ronchail
,
Benjamin Rösner
,
Roberto Salinas
,
Hirotaka Sato
,
Hitoshi Sato
,
Amal Sayouri
,
Joseph Sebaziga
,
Serhat Sensoy
,
Sandra Spillane
,
Katja Trachte
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
F. Sima
,
Adam Smith
,
Jacqueline M. Spence
,
O. P. Sreejith
,
A. K. Srivastava
,
José L. Stella
,
Kimberly A. Stephenson
,
Tannecia S. Stephenson
,
S. Supari
,
Sahar Tajbakhsh-Mosalman
,
Gerard Tamar
,
Michael A. Taylor
,
Asaminew Teshome
,
Wassila M. Thiaw
,
Skie Tobin
,
Adrian R. Trotman
,
Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck
,
A. Vazifeh
,
Shunya Wakamatsu
,
Wei Wang
,
Fei Xin
,
F. Zeng
,
Peiqun Zhang
, and
Zhiwei Zhu
Free access
Peter Bissolli
,
Catherine Ganter
,
Ademe Mekonnen
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
Zhiwei Zhu
,
A. Abida
,
W. Agyakwah
,
Laura S. Aldeco
,
Eric J. Alfaro
,
Teddy Allen
,
Lincoln M. Alves
,
Jorge A. Amador
,
B. Andrade
,
P. Asgarzadeh
,
Grinia Avalos
,
Julian Baez
,
M. Yu. Bardin
,
E. Bekele
,
Renato Bertalanic
,
Oliver Bochníček
,
Brandon Bukunt
,
Blanca Calderón
,
Jayaka D. Campbell
,
Elise Chandler
,
Candice S Charlton
,
Vincent Y. S. Cheng
,
Leonardo A. Clarke
,
Kris Correa
,
Catalina R. Cortés Salazar
,
Felipe Costa
,
Lenka Crhová
,
Ana Paula Cunha
,
Mesut Demircan
,
K. R. Dhurmea
,
Diana A. Domínguez
,
Dashkhuu Dulamsuren
,
M. ElKharrim
,
Jhan-Carlo Espinoza
,
A. Fazl-Kezemi
,
Nava Fedaeff
,
Chris Fenimore
,
Steven Fuhrman
,
Karin Gleason
,
Charles “Chip” P. Guard
,
Samson Hagos
,
Mizuki Hanafusa
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
,
John Kennedy
,
Sverker Hellström
,
Hugo G. Hidalgo
,
I. A. Ijampy
,
Gyo Soon Im
,
G. Jumaux
,
K. Kabidi
,
Kenneth Kerr
,
Yelena Khalatyan
,
Valentina Khan
,
Mai Van Khiem
,
Tobias Koch
,
Gerbrand Koren
,
Natalia N. Korshunova
,
A. C. Kruger
,
Mónika Lakatos
,
Jostein Mamen
,
Hoang Phuc Lam
,
Mark A. Lander
,
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
,
Tsz-Cheung Lee
,
Kinson H. Y. Leung
,
Xuefeng Liu
,
Rui Lu
,
José A. Marengo
,
Mohammadi Marjan
,
Ana E. Martínez
,
Charlotte McBride
,
Mirek Mietus
,
Noelia Misevicius
,
Aurel Moise
,
Jorge Molina-Carpio
,
Natali Mora
,
Awatif E. Mostafa
,
O. Ndiaye
,
Juan J. Nieto
,
Kristin Olafsdottir
,
Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez
,
David Phillips
,
Amos Porat
,
Esteban Rodriguez Guisado
,
Madhavan Rajeevan
,
Andrea M. Ramos
,
Cristina Recalde Coronel
,
Alejandra J. Reyes Kohler
,
M. Robjhon
,
Josyane Ronchail
,
Roberto Salinas
,
Hirotaka Sato
,
Hitoshi Sato
,
Amal Sayouri
,
Serhat Sensoy
,
Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan
,
F. Sima
,
Adam Smith
,
Matthieu Sorel
,
Sandra Spillane
,
Jacqueline M. Spence
,
O. P. Sreejith
,
A. K. Srivastava
,
Tannecia S. Stephenson
,
Kiyotoshi Takahashi
,
Michael A. Taylor
,
Wassila M. Thiaw
,
Skie Tobin
,
Lidia Trescilo
,
Adrian R. Trotman
,
Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck
,
A. Vazifeh
,
Shunya Wakamatsu
,
M. F. Zaheer
,
F. Zeng
, and
Peiqun Zhang
Free access
Tim Li
,
Abdallah Abida
,
Laura S. Aldeco
,
Eric J. Alfaro
,
Lincoln M. Alves
,
Jorge A. Amador
,
B. Andrade
,
Julian Baez
,
M. Yu. Bardin
,
Endalkachew Bekele
,
Elisangela Broedel
,
Brandon Bukunt
,
Blanca Calderón
,
Jayaka D. Campbell
,
Diego A. Campos Diaz
,
Gilma Carvajal
,
Elise Chandler
,
Vincent. Y. S. Cheng
,
Chulwoon Choi
,
Leonardo A. Clarke
,
Kris Correa
,
Felipe Costa
,
A. P. Cunha
,
Mesut Demircan
,
R. Dhurmea
,
Eliecer A. Díaz
,
M. ElKharrim
,
Bantwale D. Enyew
,
Jhan C. Espinoza
,
Amin Fazl-Kazem
,
Nava Fedaeff
,
Z. Feng
,
Chris Fenimore
,
S. D. Francis
,
Karin Gleason
,
Charles “Chip” P. Guard
,
Indra Gustari
,
S. Hagos
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
,
Rafael Hernández
,
Hugo G. Hidalgo
,
J. A. Ijampy
,
Annie C. Joseph
,
Guillaume Jumaux
,
Khadija Kabidi
,
Johannes W. Kaiser
,
Pierre-Honore Kamsu-Tamo
,
John Kennedy
,
Valentina Khan
,
Mai Van Khiem
,
Khatuna Kokosadze
,
Natalia N. Korshunova
,
Andries C. Kruger
,
Nato Kutaladze
,
L. Labbé
,
Mónika Lakatos
,
Hoang Phuc Lam
,
Mark A. Lander
,
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
,
T. C. Lee
,
Kinson H. Y. Leung
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Jostein Mamen
,
José A. Marengo
,
Dora Marín
,
Charlotte McBride
,
Lia Megrelidze
,
Noelia Misevicius
,
Y. Mochizuki
,
Aurel Moise
,
Jorge Molina-Carpio
,
Natali Mora
,
Awatif E. Mostafa
,
uan José Nieto
,
Lamjav Oyunjargal
,
Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez
,
Maria Asuncion Pastor Saavedra
,
Uwe Pfeifroth
,
David Phillips
,
Madhavan Rajeevan
,
Andrea M. Ramos
,
Jayashree V. Revadekar
,
Miliaritiana Robjhon
,
Ernesto Rodriguez Camino
,
Esteban Rodriguez Guisado
,
Josyane Ronchail
,
Benjamin Rösner
,
Roberto Salinas
,
Amal Sayouri
,
Carl J. Schreck III
,
Serhat Sensoy
,
A. Shimpo
,
Fatou Sima
,
Adam Smith
,
Jacqueline Spence
,
Sandra Spillane
,
Arne Spitzer
,
A. K. Srivastava
,
José L. Stella
,
Kimberly A. Stephenson
,
Tannecia S. Stephenson
,
Michael A. Taylor
,
Wassila Thiaw
,
Skie Tobin
,
Dennis Todey
,
Katja Trachte
,
Adrian R. Trotman
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck
,
Ahad Vazifeh
,
José Vicencio Veloso
,
Wei Wang
,
Fei Xin
,
Peiqun Zhang
,
Zhiwei Zhu
, and
Jonas Zucule
Free access