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- Author or Editor: Wen Chen x
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology x
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Abstract
In recent decades, a high frequency of extreme high temperature has occurred in many regions worldwide, with serious impacts on society and the economy. As the temperature increases, the sensitivity of extreme high temperatures to changing thresholds in the northern midlatitudes exhibits a different performance response. The results of this study show that extreme high temperature in the increasing phase is more sensitive to changes in the threshold in both observations and simulations (the largest difference in the speed of temperature increase occurs at 3.5 and 25 days decade−1), primarily in North America and central Asia. However, an obvious discrepancy appears in the time series before 1980 and the spatial scale over North America between the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and Hadley Centre Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (HadGHCND) datasets. This finding highlights the fact that the old definition of being in the increasing temperature phase in modern climate history is problematic today. At the same time, when the old base period is selected, the frequency of extreme high temperatures will become a common event (close to 98% in a year) by 2100. Using 1961–90 as the base period is not suitable for calculating extreme temperatures in the future from the perspective of adapting to climate change. The increasing temperature threshold means there will be more frequent hot days, indicating that agriculture and species will be negatively affected, more wildfires will occur, and thus risks to humanity will increase.
Abstract
In recent decades, a high frequency of extreme high temperature has occurred in many regions worldwide, with serious impacts on society and the economy. As the temperature increases, the sensitivity of extreme high temperatures to changing thresholds in the northern midlatitudes exhibits a different performance response. The results of this study show that extreme high temperature in the increasing phase is more sensitive to changes in the threshold in both observations and simulations (the largest difference in the speed of temperature increase occurs at 3.5 and 25 days decade−1), primarily in North America and central Asia. However, an obvious discrepancy appears in the time series before 1980 and the spatial scale over North America between the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and Hadley Centre Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (HadGHCND) datasets. This finding highlights the fact that the old definition of being in the increasing temperature phase in modern climate history is problematic today. At the same time, when the old base period is selected, the frequency of extreme high temperatures will become a common event (close to 98% in a year) by 2100. Using 1961–90 as the base period is not suitable for calculating extreme temperatures in the future from the perspective of adapting to climate change. The increasing temperature threshold means there will be more frequent hot days, indicating that agriculture and species will be negatively affected, more wildfires will occur, and thus risks to humanity will increase.
Abstract
Roughness height for heat transfer is a crucial parameter in the estimation of sensible heat flux. In this study, the performance of the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been tested and evaluated for typical land surfaces on the Tibetan Plateau on the basis of time series of observations at four sites with bare soil, sparse canopy, dense canopy, and snow surface, respectively. Both under- and overestimation at low and high sensible heat fluxes by SEBS was discovered. Through sensitivity analyses, it was identified that these biases are related to the SEBS parameterization of bare soil’s excess resistance to heat transfer (kB −1, where k is the von Kármán constant and B −1 is the Stanton number). The kB −1 of bare soil in SEBS was replaced. The results show that the revised model performs better than the original model.
Abstract
Roughness height for heat transfer is a crucial parameter in the estimation of sensible heat flux. In this study, the performance of the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been tested and evaluated for typical land surfaces on the Tibetan Plateau on the basis of time series of observations at four sites with bare soil, sparse canopy, dense canopy, and snow surface, respectively. Both under- and overestimation at low and high sensible heat fluxes by SEBS was discovered. Through sensitivity analyses, it was identified that these biases are related to the SEBS parameterization of bare soil’s excess resistance to heat transfer (kB −1, where k is the von Kármán constant and B −1 is the Stanton number). The kB −1 of bare soil in SEBS was replaced. The results show that the revised model performs better than the original model.
Abstract
Utilizing the cloud parameters derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner and the near-surface rainfall detected by the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the differences of cloud parameters for precipitating clouds (PCs) and nonprecipitating clouds (NPCs) are examined in tropical cyclones (TCs) during daytime from June to September 1998–2010. A precipitation delineation scheme that is based on cloud parameter thresholds is proposed and validated using the independent TC datasets in 2011 and observational datasets from Terra/MODIS. Statistical analysis of these results shows that the differences in the effective radius of cloud particles R e are small for PCs and NPCs, while thick clouds with large cloud optical thickness (COT) and liquid water path (LWP) can be considered as candidates for PCs. The probability of precipitation increases rapidly as the LWP and COT increase, reaching ~90%, whereas the probability of precipitation reaches a peak value of only 30% as R e increases. The combined threshold of a brightness temperature at 10.8 μm (BT4) of 270 K and an LWP of 750 g m−2 shows the best performance for precipitation discrimination at the pixel levels, with the probability of detection (POD) reaching 68.2% and false-alarm ratio (FAR) reaching 31.54%. From MODIS observations, the composite scheme utilizing BT4 and LWP also proves to be a good index, with POD reaching 77.39% and FAR reaching 24.2%. The results from this study demonstrate a potential application of real-time precipitation monitoring in TCs utilizing cloud parameters from visible and infrared measurements on board geostationary weather satellites.
Abstract
Utilizing the cloud parameters derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner and the near-surface rainfall detected by the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the differences of cloud parameters for precipitating clouds (PCs) and nonprecipitating clouds (NPCs) are examined in tropical cyclones (TCs) during daytime from June to September 1998–2010. A precipitation delineation scheme that is based on cloud parameter thresholds is proposed and validated using the independent TC datasets in 2011 and observational datasets from Terra/MODIS. Statistical analysis of these results shows that the differences in the effective radius of cloud particles R e are small for PCs and NPCs, while thick clouds with large cloud optical thickness (COT) and liquid water path (LWP) can be considered as candidates for PCs. The probability of precipitation increases rapidly as the LWP and COT increase, reaching ~90%, whereas the probability of precipitation reaches a peak value of only 30% as R e increases. The combined threshold of a brightness temperature at 10.8 μm (BT4) of 270 K and an LWP of 750 g m−2 shows the best performance for precipitation discrimination at the pixel levels, with the probability of detection (POD) reaching 68.2% and false-alarm ratio (FAR) reaching 31.54%. From MODIS observations, the composite scheme utilizing BT4 and LWP also proves to be a good index, with POD reaching 77.39% and FAR reaching 24.2%. The results from this study demonstrate a potential application of real-time precipitation monitoring in TCs utilizing cloud parameters from visible and infrared measurements on board geostationary weather satellites.
Abstract
This study presents a statistical analysis of the variability of the vertical structure of precipitation in the eastern downstream region of the Tibetan Plateau as measured by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Data were analyzed over an 11-yr time span (January 2004–December 2014). The results show the seasonal and spatial variability of the storm height, freezing level, and bright band for different types of precipitation as well as the characteristics of intensity-related and type-related vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPR). Major findings were as follows: About 90% of the brightband peak reflectivity of stratiform precipitation was less than 32 dBZ, and 40% of the maximum reflectivity of convective precipitation exceeded 35 dBZ. The intensity of surface rainfall rates also depended on the shapes of VPRs. For stratiform precipitation, ice–snow aggregation was faster during moderate and heavy rainfall than it was in light rainfall. Since both the moisture and temperature are lower in winter, the transformation efficiency of hydrometeors becomes slower. Typical Ku-band representative climatological VPRs (CPRs) for stratiform precipitation have been created on the basis of the integration of normalized VPR shape for the given area and the rainfall intensity. All of the findings indicate that the developed CPRs can be used to improve surface precipitation estimates in regions with complex terrain where the ground-based radar net has limited visibility at low levels.
Abstract
This study presents a statistical analysis of the variability of the vertical structure of precipitation in the eastern downstream region of the Tibetan Plateau as measured by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Data were analyzed over an 11-yr time span (January 2004–December 2014). The results show the seasonal and spatial variability of the storm height, freezing level, and bright band for different types of precipitation as well as the characteristics of intensity-related and type-related vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPR). Major findings were as follows: About 90% of the brightband peak reflectivity of stratiform precipitation was less than 32 dBZ, and 40% of the maximum reflectivity of convective precipitation exceeded 35 dBZ. The intensity of surface rainfall rates also depended on the shapes of VPRs. For stratiform precipitation, ice–snow aggregation was faster during moderate and heavy rainfall than it was in light rainfall. Since both the moisture and temperature are lower in winter, the transformation efficiency of hydrometeors becomes slower. Typical Ku-band representative climatological VPRs (CPRs) for stratiform precipitation have been created on the basis of the integration of normalized VPR shape for the given area and the rainfall intensity. All of the findings indicate that the developed CPRs can be used to improve surface precipitation estimates in regions with complex terrain where the ground-based radar net has limited visibility at low levels.
Abstract
The ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) was developed to deduce a three-dimensional primary circulation of landfalling tropical cyclones from single-Doppler radar data. However, the cross-beam component of the mean wind 
Abstract
The ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) was developed to deduce a three-dimensional primary circulation of landfalling tropical cyclones from single-Doppler radar data. However, the cross-beam component of the mean wind
Abstract
This study investigated heavy frontal rainfall that occurred on 13–14 October 2011 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. The frontal rainstorm was simulated using the WRF-ARW Model (version 3.3), which included its urban canopy model. Although the model-simulated convection occurred 2 h early and the second precipitation peak was underestimated, the model represented the formation, development, and extinction of the frontal rainfall and captured the distribution of the peak value. In addition, the averaged value of 49.7 W m−2 was taken as the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) of the PRD, and two land-use datasets were adopted: one for 1992 and the other for 2011. The simulation revealed that AHF and urban land-use change (ULUC) increased the total rainfall over the PRD by 6.3% and 7.4% and increased the maximum hourly rainfall intensity by 24.6% and 21.2%, respectively. Furthermore, to elucidate the mechanism of AHF and ULUC influence, the rainstorm structure, low-level jet (LLJ), and CAPE of the rainfall event were analyzed. It was found that AHF and ULUC enhanced two strong southward LLJs located over the urban areas, which carried abundant water vapor to the PRD and generated additional upper-level CAPE. This not only sustained steady ascent of the air, but it also created conditions favorable for downward motion, resulting in large persistent convective clouds and heavy frontal rainfall.
Abstract
This study investigated heavy frontal rainfall that occurred on 13–14 October 2011 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. The frontal rainstorm was simulated using the WRF-ARW Model (version 3.3), which included its urban canopy model. Although the model-simulated convection occurred 2 h early and the second precipitation peak was underestimated, the model represented the formation, development, and extinction of the frontal rainfall and captured the distribution of the peak value. In addition, the averaged value of 49.7 W m−2 was taken as the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) of the PRD, and two land-use datasets were adopted: one for 1992 and the other for 2011. The simulation revealed that AHF and urban land-use change (ULUC) increased the total rainfall over the PRD by 6.3% and 7.4% and increased the maximum hourly rainfall intensity by 24.6% and 21.2%, respectively. Furthermore, to elucidate the mechanism of AHF and ULUC influence, the rainstorm structure, low-level jet (LLJ), and CAPE of the rainfall event were analyzed. It was found that AHF and ULUC enhanced two strong southward LLJs located over the urban areas, which carried abundant water vapor to the PRD and generated additional upper-level CAPE. This not only sustained steady ascent of the air, but it also created conditions favorable for downward motion, resulting in large persistent convective clouds and heavy frontal rainfall.
