Abstract

In this study, evidence of the strong modulation of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) activity by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is presented, with a particular focus over the South America and tropical Atlantic region. The MJO impacts on CCKWs over this region, as noted in anomalous fields of rainfall as well as vertical profiles of wind, moisture, and temperature, are primarily through the modulation of Kelvin wave amplitude, with secondary effects on vertical structure, and little impact on wavenumber. CCKW activity is enhanced during MJO phases 8, 1, and 2 and damped during MJO phases 4, 5, and 6.

Further analyses reveal that the strong modulation of the MJO on the CCKW activity could be largely through two factors: namely, the vertical zonal wind shear and the lower- to middle-tropospheric specific humidity. The CCKW activity tends to be enhanced during MJO phases when the easterly vertical wind shear and positive low- to midtroposphere moisture anomalies are present and vice versa. These two physical processes associated with the MJO are found to have positively (negatively) reinforcing influences on the CCKW activity in phase 1 (4 and 5), while counteracting influences in phases 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8, leading to the observed MJO cycle of the CCKW activity anomalies in the study region. The results presented in this study may have important implications for extended-range prediction of tropical wave activity and might suggest possible roles of the upstream CCKWs in the initiation of the MJO in the western Indian Ocean.

Abstract

A model diagnosis has been performed on the nocturnal Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ), which is one of the key elements of the warm season regional climate over North America. The horizontal–vertical structure, diurnal phase, and amplitude of the LLJ are well simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), thus justifying a reevaluation of the physical mechanisms for the formation of the LLJ based on output from this model. A diagnosis of the AGCM data confirms that two planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, the diurnal oscillation of the pressure gradient force and of vertical diffusion, are of comparable importance in regulating the inertial oscillation of the winds, which leads to the occurrence of maximum LLJ strength during nighttime. These two processes are highlighted in the theories for the LLJ proposed by Holton (1967) and Blackadar (1957). A simple model is constructed in order to study the relative roles of these two mechanisms. This model incorporates the diurnal variation of the pressure gradient force and vertical diffusion coefficients as obtained from the AGCM simulation. The results reveal that the observed diurnal phase and amplitude of the LLJ can be attributed to the combination of these two mechanisms. The LLJ generated by either Holton’s or Blackadar’s mechanism alone is characterized by an unrealistic meridional phase shift and weaker amplitude.

It is also shown that the diurnal phase of the LLJ exhibits vertical variations in the PBL, more clearly at higher latitudes, with the upper PBL wind attaining a southerly peak several hours earlier than the lower PBL. The simple model demonstrates that this phase tilt is due mainly to sequential triggering of the inertial oscillation from upper to lower PBL when surface cooling commences after sunset. At lower latitudes, due to the change of orientation of prevailing mean wind vectors and the longer inertial period, the inertial oscillation in the lower PBL tends to be interrupted by strong vertical mixing in the following day, whereas in the upper PBL, the inertial oscillation can proceed in a low-friction environment for a relatively longer duration. Thus, the vertical phase tilt initiated at sunset is less evident at lower latitudes.

Abstract

Practical predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic is evaluated in different synoptic flow regimes using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecasts with forecast lead time up to two weeks. Synoptic flow regimes are represented by tropical cyclogenesis pathways defined in a previous study based on the low-level baroclinicity and upper-level forcing of the genesis environmental state, including nonbaroclinic, low-level baroclinic, trough-induced, weak tropical transition (TT), and strong TT pathways. It is found that the strong TT and weak TT pathways have lower predictability than the other pathways, linked to the lower predictability of vertical wind shear and midlevel humidity in the genesis vicinity of a developing TT storm. Further analysis suggests that stronger extratropical influences contribute to lower genesis predictability. It is also shown that the regional and seasonal variations of the genesis predictive skill in the GEFS can be largely explained by the relative frequency of occurrence of each pathway and the predictability differences among pathways. Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is further discussed using the concept of the genesis potential index.

Abstract

The Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign was conducted over the Indian Ocean (IO) from October 2011 to February 2012 to investigate the initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Three MJOs accompanying westerly wind events (WWEs) occurred in late October, late November, and late December 2011. Momentum budget analysis is conducted to understand the contributions of the dynamical processes involved in the wind evolution associated with the MJO over the IO during DYNAMO using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis. This analysis shows that westerly acceleration at lower levels associated with the MJO active phase generally appears to be maintained by the pressure gradient force (PGF), which could be partly canceled by meridional advection of the zonal wind. Westerly acceleration in the midtroposphere tends to be mostly attributable to vertical advection. The results herein imply that there is no simple linear dynamic model that can capture the WWEs associated with the MJO and that nonlinear processes have to be considered.

In addition, the MJO in November (MJO2), accompanied by two WWEs (WWE1 and WWE2) spaced a few days apart, is diagnosed. Unlike other WWEs during DYNAMO, horizontal advection is more responsible for the westerly acceleration in the lower troposphere for WWE2 than the PGF. Interactions between the MJO2 envelope and convectively coupled waves (CCWs) are analyzed to illuminate the dynamical contribution of these synoptic-scale equatorial waves to the WWEs. The authors suggest that different developing processes among WWEs can be attributed to different types of CCWs.

Abstract

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.