Abstract

This study analyzes representative concentration pathway 4.5 projections by 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to show that surface warming patterns in the equatorial Pacific during the twenty-first century (centennial warming) are influenced by the relative strengths of the Walker and Hadley circulations. The stronger the Hadley (Walker) circulation is, the greater the surface warming in the central Pacific (CP) [eastern Pacific (EP)]. The EP warming is associated with the Bjerknes feedback, while the CP warming is associated with the wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature feedback. This atmospheric circulation influence on the centennial warming is similar to that found for the EP and CP El Niño. This suggests a methodology to constrain the estimate of the projected surface warming patterns in the equatorial Pacific using recent El Niño activity. The constraint indicates that the “most likely” centennial warming patterns have a maximum in the EP and are 39% weaker than the warming projected by the 18-model mean. The most-likely projection also shows alternating stronger and weaker warming in the subtropical North Pacific, which is not predicted by the 18-model mean projection. Nevertheless, the two projections agree on the minimum warming in the southeastern subtropical Pacific.

Abstract

Zonal flow vacillation with very long time scales is observed in a 3070-day simple GCM simulation with zonally symmetric forcing. The long lasting zonal wind anomalies suggest that zonal flow vacillation is self-maintained. Wave-mean flow interactions are investigated by composite analysis and transform Eulerian momentum budget analysis. Nonlinear life-cycle simulations are conducted to demonstrate that each extreme phase of the zonal flow vacillation is a quasi stable state and is self-maintained by the embedded synoptic eddies.

The firm EOF mode of zonal-mean wind shows an out of phase relation between anomalies at 60°S and at 40°S with a barotropic structure. This structure is similar to the dominant vacillation pattern observed in the Southern Hemisphere. The composite jet stream in the high (low) index phase of zonal flow vacillation shifts poleward (equatorward) from the time-mean location and becomes broader (narrower) and weaker (stronger). Composite eddies in the high index Phase tilt NW-SE and show mostly equatorward propagation, while eddies in the low index phase have “banana” shapes and propagate both equatorward and poleward. Transformed Eulerian momentum budget analyses show that the differences of wave propagation between two extreme phases result in the anomalous eddy forcing needed to maintain zonal wind anomalies against frictional damping.

Budget analyses also indicate that eddy momentum flux convergence is the major positive forcing in both the extreme and transition phases. Eddy baroclinic forcing exerts weak damping on the wind anomalies in the upper troposphere but acts together with residual circulation forcing to counteract frictional damping near the surface. The major balance during the index cycle is between eddy barotropic forcing and residual circulation forcing in the upper troposphere and between residual circulation forcing and frictional damping in the lower troposphere. Further comparisons of eddy forcing from various time-scale eddies show that the anomalous eddy forcing is primarily provided by synoptic time scales. Two nonlinear life-cycle simulations, started separately from the composite zonal flows of the two extreme phases and small-amplitude wavenumber 6 perturbations, display the intensification of initial wind anomalies by the growing eddies. A dual-jet stream structure appears in the life-cycle simulation started from the high index composite, and a more intense single jet stream structure evolves from the low index initial state.

It is noticed that maximum wind anomalies are established earlier at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This suggests that the mechanisms triggering transitions from one self-maintained phase to the other operate at higher latitudes. It is suspected that barotropic instability/stability is a possible triggering mechanism for transition from one state to another.

Abstract

The effect of large-scale mountains on atmospheric variability is studied in a series of GCM experiments in which a single mountain is varied in height from 0 to 4 km. High-frequency (τ < 7 days) and low-frequency (τ > 30 days) variability are largest in the jet exit region, while the intermediate-frequency (7 < τ < 30 days) variability has its maximum upstream of the mountain where it exhibits enhanced equatorward propagation. High and intermediate frequencies change from zonal wave trains to localized wave packets as orographic forcing is increased, but they retain their characteristic scale and frequency. The dominant pattern of low-frequency is variability changes from a zonally symmetric oscillation, for which transient eddy-zonal flow interaction is the dominant mechanism, to a more localized oscillation of the jet downstream of the mountain. The transient eddy forcing still plays a significant role in maintaining the variations of this more localized jet, however.

The total amount of wave energy remains almost constant as the mountain height is increased, but the distribution of wave energy shifts from transient to stationary and from high frequencies to low frequencies. Low-frequency variability shows a step function response to orographic forcing in that it shows no response to a 1-km mountain, increases substantially in response to a 2-km mountain, and then shows little further increase as the mountain is raised to 3 and 4 km. This behavior suggests that the mechanism that generates the additional low-frequency variability in the mountain-forced experiments becomes effective after the zonal asymmetry reaches a critical value and then does not respond much to further increases in asymmetry.

Abstract

The realistic simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is used to test two simple theoretical models of the phenomenon: the recharge oscillator model of Jin and the delayed oscillator model of Schopf, Suarez, Battisti, and Hirst (SSBH). The target for the simple models is provided by the CGCM results prefiltered with singular spectrum analysis to extract the leading oscillatory mode. In its simplest form, the Jin model can be reduced to two first ordinary differential equations. If the parameters of the model are fit in this reduced form, it appears to capture the period of the CGCM oscillatory mode. If the Jin model is instead fit using the individual physical balances that are used to derive it, substantial misfits to the CGCM are encountered. The SSBH model can likewise be expressed either in a condensed form or a larger set of individual physical balances with highly analogous results.

It is shown that the misfits in both simple models can be greatly reduced by introducing a spinup timescale for wind stress relative to eastern equatorial Pacific SST. In the CGCM, this spinup time appears to be associated with a combination of atmospheric and ocean mixed layer processes in a way consistent with the “mixed mode” regime discussed by Syu and Neelin, which is not included in the Jin and SSBH models. These appear indistinguishable in this analysis, although the latter is more sensitive to fitting.

This paper provides a bridge between work on ENSO by theoreticians and numerical modelers. The CGCM results validate the conceptual framework of the simple models by demonstrating that they can provide a plausible representation of ENSO with realistic sets of parameters. The results also suggest that, in terms of realistic ENSO variability, the framework of the simple models can be made substantially more complete by including the adjustment time between wind stress and eastern Pacific SST required by the coupled spinup of the atmosphere and the ocean mixed layer processes outside this region.

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method to properly define and accurately determine the vortex center of a model-predicted tropical cyclone (TC) from a dynamic perspective. Ideally, a dynamically determined TC vortex center should maximize the gradient wind balance or, equivalently, minimize the gradient wind imbalance measured by an energy norm over the TC vortex. In practice, however, such an energy norm cannot be used to easily and unambiguously determine the TC vortex center. An alternative yet practical approach is developed to dynamically and unambiguously define the TC vortex center. In this approach, the TC vortex core of near-solid-body rotation is modeled by a simple parametric vortex constrained by the gradient wind balance. Therefore, the modeled vortex can fit simultaneously the perturbation pressure and streamfunction of the TC vortex part (extracted from the model-predicted fields) over the TC vortex core area (within the radius of maximum tangential wind), while the misfit is measured by a properly defined cost function. Minimizing this cost function yields the desired dynamic optimality condition that can uniquely define the TC vortex center. Using this dynamic optimality condition, a new method is developed in the form of iterative least squares fit to accurately determine the TC vortex center. The new method is shown to be efficient and effective for finding the TC vortex center that accurately satisfies the dynamic optimality condition.

Abstract

In this study, the authors numerically investigate the response of an axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex to the vertical fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture induced by roll vortices (rolls) in the boundary layer. To represent the vertical fluxes induced by rolls, a two-dimensional high-resolution Single-Grid Roll-Resolving Model (SRM) is embedded at multiple horizontal grid points in the mesoscale COAMPS for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model domain. Idealized experiments are conducted with the SRM embedded within 3 times the radius of maximum wind of an axisymmetric TC. The results indicate that the rolls induce changes in the boundary layer wind distribution and cause a moderate (approximately 15%) increase in the TC intensification rate by increasing the boundary layer convergence in the eyewall region and induce more active eyewall convection. The numerical experiments also suggest that the roll-induced tangential momentum flux is most important in contributing to the TC intensification process, and the rolls generated at different radii (within the range considered in this study) all have positive contributions. The results are not qualitatively impacted by the initial TC vortex or the setup of the vertical diffusivity in COAMPS-TC.

Abstract

Numerical simulations of a gravity current in an environment characterized by complex stratification and vertical wind shear have been performed using a nonhydrostatic, two-dimensional, dry, primitive-equation model. Data from one of the most complete documentations to date of gravity waves associated with a gravity current, presented in an earlier study, are used both to prescribe the gravity current's environment and for validation of the simulated gravity current and its associated gravity waves. These comparisons indicate that the gravity current observed by a Doppler wind profiler and sodars was well simulated in terms of depth, density contrast, and propagation speed and that the model produced a variety of gravity waves similar in many ways to these observed.

Because uncertainties remained concerning the gravity wave generation mechanisms derived from the observations (e.g., wavelengths were not observed), the validated simulations are used to test these tentative hypotheses. The simulations confirm that trapped lee-type gravity waves formed in response to flow over the head of the gravity current and that Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) waves were created because of shear atop the cold air within the gravity current. The 2.8-km wavelength of the simulated KH waves agrees with the 2- to 3-km wavelength inferred from the observations. However, the 6.4-km wavelength of the simulated lee-type waves is significantly shorter than the 12.5-km wavelength inferred from the observational data, even though wave periods (20-23 minutes) are nearly identical. Sensitivity tests indicate that the curvature in the wind profile associated with the low-level opposing inflow and an elevated isothermal layer worked together to support the development of the trapped lee-type waves. The model produces a deep vertically propagating wave above the gravity current head that was not present in the observations. As deduced in the earlier study, sensitivity tests indicate that the prefrontal, near-surface stable layer was too shallow to support the generation of a bore; that is, conditions were supercritical. Synthesis of detailed observations and numerical simulations of these mesoscale phenomena thus offers the broadest examination possible of the complex physical processes.