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Eric Rogers
Geoffrey J. DiMego
Joseph P. Gerrity
Ralph A. Petersen
Brian D. Schmidt
, and
Deirdre M. Kann

Analyses and forecasts for the first 2 weeks of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) are described. These fields were produced using the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS). Two sets of analyses and forecasts were constructed: one using the NMC operational database only (Level IIIa), and one using the NMC data merged with high-density observations taken during GALE (Level IIIb).

During the first 14 days of GALE, supplemental data were collected throughout two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs). Comparisons of the Level IIIa and IIIb analyses over the GALE observing region in the southeastern United States indicated a worsening of the geopotential height analysis at operational NWS rawinsonde sites using the supplemental IIIb data. This was caused by inconsistencies in the height measurements at the high-density GALE rawinsonde sites. Such patterns were not observed in the wind and temperature analyses.

During IOP No. 1, the Level IIIa and IIIb Nested Grid Model (NGM) forecasts were nearly identical. For IOP No. 2, one forecast cycle saw an improvement in the Level IIIb forecasts due to offshore GALE dropwindsonde data, while another was improved by the inclusion of late-arriving rawinsonde data in the IIIb analysis. The inland, high-density GALE soundings, however, had a negligible impact on NGM forecasts during the entire 12-day period.

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