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- Author or Editor: Jane Smyth x
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Abstract
The tropical atmospheric circulation and attendant rainfall exhibit seasonally dependent responses to increasing temperatures. Understanding changes in the South American monsoon system is of particular interest given the sensitivity of the southern Amazon rainforest to changes in dry season length. We utilize the latest Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model (GFDL AM4) to analyze the response of the South American monsoon to uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming. SST warming is a poorly understood yet impactful component of greenhouse gas–induced climate change. Region-mean rainfall declines by 11%, and net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) declines by 40%, during the monsoon onset season (September–November), producing a more severe dry season. The column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget helps elucidate the physical mechanisms of the simulated drying. Based on the seasonal analysis, precipitation reductions tend to occur when 1) a convecting region’s climatological MSE export is dominated by horizontal rather than vertical advection, and 2) the horizontal MSE advection increases in the perturbed climate, impeding ascent. On a synoptic scale, the South American low-level jet strengthens and exports more moisture from the monsoon sector, exacerbating spring drying.
Abstract
The tropical atmospheric circulation and attendant rainfall exhibit seasonally dependent responses to increasing temperatures. Understanding changes in the South American monsoon system is of particular interest given the sensitivity of the southern Amazon rainforest to changes in dry season length. We utilize the latest Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model (GFDL AM4) to analyze the response of the South American monsoon to uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming. SST warming is a poorly understood yet impactful component of greenhouse gas–induced climate change. Region-mean rainfall declines by 11%, and net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) declines by 40%, during the monsoon onset season (September–November), producing a more severe dry season. The column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget helps elucidate the physical mechanisms of the simulated drying. Based on the seasonal analysis, precipitation reductions tend to occur when 1) a convecting region’s climatological MSE export is dominated by horizontal rather than vertical advection, and 2) the horizontal MSE advection increases in the perturbed climate, impeding ascent. On a synoptic scale, the South American low-level jet strengthens and exports more moisture from the monsoon sector, exacerbating spring drying.
Abstract
Monsoons emerge over a range of land surface conditions and exhibit varying physical characteristics over the seasonal cycle, from onset to withdrawal. Systematically varying the moisture and albedo parameters over land in an idealized modeling framework allows one to analyze the physics underlying the successive stages of monsoon development. To this end, we implement an isolated South American continent with reduced heat capacity but no topography in an idealized moist general circulation model. Irrespective of the local moisture availability, the seasonal cycles of precipitation and circulation over the South American monsoon sector are distinctly monsoonal with the default surface albedo. The dry land case (zero evaporation) is characterized by a shallow overturning circulation with vigorous lower-tropospheric ascent, transporting water vapor from the ocean. By contrast, with bucket hydrology or unlimited land moisture, the monsoon features deep moist convection that penetrates the upper troposphere. A series of land albedo perturbation experiments indicates that the monsoon strengthens with the net column energy flux and the near-surface moist static energy with all land moisture conditions. When the land–ocean thermal contrast is strong enough, inertial instability alone is sufficient for producing a shallow but vigorous circulation and converging a large amount of moisture from the ocean even in the absence of land moisture. Once the land is sufficiently moist, convective instability takes hold and the shallow circulation deepens. These results have implications for monsoon onset and intensification, and may elucidate the seasonal variations in how surface warming impacts tropical precipitation over land.
Abstract
Monsoons emerge over a range of land surface conditions and exhibit varying physical characteristics over the seasonal cycle, from onset to withdrawal. Systematically varying the moisture and albedo parameters over land in an idealized modeling framework allows one to analyze the physics underlying the successive stages of monsoon development. To this end, we implement an isolated South American continent with reduced heat capacity but no topography in an idealized moist general circulation model. Irrespective of the local moisture availability, the seasonal cycles of precipitation and circulation over the South American monsoon sector are distinctly monsoonal with the default surface albedo. The dry land case (zero evaporation) is characterized by a shallow overturning circulation with vigorous lower-tropospheric ascent, transporting water vapor from the ocean. By contrast, with bucket hydrology or unlimited land moisture, the monsoon features deep moist convection that penetrates the upper troposphere. A series of land albedo perturbation experiments indicates that the monsoon strengthens with the net column energy flux and the near-surface moist static energy with all land moisture conditions. When the land–ocean thermal contrast is strong enough, inertial instability alone is sufficient for producing a shallow but vigorous circulation and converging a large amount of moisture from the ocean even in the absence of land moisture. Once the land is sufficiently moist, convective instability takes hold and the shallow circulation deepens. These results have implications for monsoon onset and intensification, and may elucidate the seasonal variations in how surface warming impacts tropical precipitation over land.
Abstract
The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a “monsoonal mode,” a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy.
Significance Statement
Regional concentrations of tropical precipitation, such as the South Asian monsoon, provide water to billions of people. These features have strong seasonal cycles that have typically been framed in terms of meridional shifts of precipitation following the sun’s movement. Here, we study zonal shifts of tropical precipitation over the seasonal cycle in observations and idealized simulations. We find that land–ocean contrasts trigger a monsoon with concentrated precipitation over Asia in northern summer and near-surface eastward winds carry this precipitation into the west Pacific during northern autumn in what we call a “monsoonal mode.” This concentrated precipitation remains over the west Pacific during northern winter, as further migration is impeded by the cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and easterly winds of the east Pacific.
Abstract
The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a “monsoonal mode,” a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy.
Significance Statement
Regional concentrations of tropical precipitation, such as the South Asian monsoon, provide water to billions of people. These features have strong seasonal cycles that have typically been framed in terms of meridional shifts of precipitation following the sun’s movement. Here, we study zonal shifts of tropical precipitation over the seasonal cycle in observations and idealized simulations. We find that land–ocean contrasts trigger a monsoon with concentrated precipitation over Asia in northern summer and near-surface eastward winds carry this precipitation into the west Pacific during northern autumn in what we call a “monsoonal mode.” This concentrated precipitation remains over the west Pacific during northern winter, as further migration is impeded by the cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and easterly winds of the east Pacific.
